Member Info for BigDave13

Entered top 10 on risers board with a rocket...

The SHs I am aware of include :
Oscillate (Mush) 24.64%
Richard Edwards 10.27%
Simon Grant Rennick 5.87%
Burns Singh Tennent Bhohi 3.63%

I initially thought Vela may take a stake as part of the re-org but that didn't happen.

Yes, the option structure is interesting. For now just EML but they get to co-invest on future deals so imagine an Arcadia like deal once a year going forwards - nice. Although they are on Aquis, quite illiquid stock at the mo but that could change.

Did a little trade once EML Trial date was known, sold Fri for a 17% gain (still retain main holding). Was looking to re-deploy funds into some crypto mining plays but after yesterday, that can wait. Bought some more Vela this AM, what could possibly go wrong lol.

I see Igraine as a mid/long term pharma play, they certainly have linked up with the right team. Vela for the immediate Arcadia Trials but as Evans owns AZD1656 patents, would not surprise me if Igraine becomes involved in manufacture/distribution. We should know soon enough.

What do you make of their lack of accounts? Due end of June, they released a statement saying end of July latest but still nothing. Vela accounts due end of Sept.

oxymoron

NTD, agree 1p is a little more realistic, with Shares in Issue increasing, that would take MC to £162.5m now.

JR, so you know what level the MC would reach if the SP hits 10p or 20p?

Yeah, but the warrants were issued 12 months ago with an expiry date of 01 Sept. It just so happens this coincides with pending Trial Results, who knew? Plus warrants were probably needed to entice the investors into the original restructure placing back in Aug 20, so consider it all part of the corporate structure and well known and not a surprise. I best not mention the next batch of warrants coming up mid Oct :-)

@ns20, This is useful, mine was just a quick calc, I don’t think we are too far apart actually.

For current investments, check out a recent post by @THGambler who has provided a good summary of current positions. Our main differences are that I didn’t include any allowance for CT, used latest reported shares in issue of 15.4bn excluding deferred warrants/options & included cash balance of £2m.

I also found this quote interesting

The preliminary findings should provide sufficient evidence to allow EML and the clinical team at SGS to evaluate the likely commercial channels for the next stage of development for AZD1656. This could include outright sale to, or partnerships with large pharma or biotech companies, raising additional external financing to fund future development, discussions with regulators, and more.

I don't recall seeing reference to external financing or regulators before. Leads me to speculate that delay is for stakeholders
zoom call to outline and agree next steps, maybe including who wants to re-invest into manufacturing/distribution etc

Warrant holders out, new money in.

This would have dropped on the Vela RNS alone. Big shout out to Igraine for the real low down :-)

HL and Barclays

cruickie1, thks

@ns20. The shares in issue on the Fundamentals tab has not been updated all year. I actually dropped LSE a note this morning asking if they could update as it shows an incorrect MC. Your calc is clearly a lot more detailed. The CT is an interesting point, I hadn't thought of that. The latest half year report shows prior period losses so no doubt would cover at least some of the potential income and hopefully reduce any potential tax liability.

Probably not practical that way, here is my simplified version

Investment £2.35m * 10x ROI = £23.5m + current investments, say £2.5m + £2m cash = £28m NAV. With 15.4bn shares in Issue, equates to 0.18p per share. PE of 5 would take it to 0.9p per share.

The interesting thing for me is what are JNs plans if Vela ends up with £25m+ cash. Some big incoming investments to look forward to.

Happy for you/anyone to disagree and point out my flaws, in the calcs only :-)!

@ns20, can you show your calcs, I would estimate NAV is somewhat lower on that basis? Happy to compare notes :-)

Slight delay for Arcadia Results
https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/for-investors/announcements?view_news_id=3232526

Hi, Just took a little break from posting in lead up to the big announcement. Anyway, lots to look forward to this week, I think I am now more bullish.

@HectorMcGonigale, I agree with that thought. Discussions have been ongoing for a couple of months already. No reason deal won't be concluded promptly once results officially published.

From the 9/07 RNS:- At this time, SGS and Excalibur Medicines Ltd ("EML") have begun the process of progressing commercialisation plans, subject to the trial data being successful.

SP seems more bullish than FOMO Friday last week.

And that is with no news and a delay which normally would trash a SP for any other AIM stock.

Imagine what will happen to SP when these results finally land - the mind boggles.

....and breathe!!!