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HSBC raise recommendation from Hold to BUY.

I am once again taught a lesson MW increased their short to 0.81 (16/08). So the reported buy of 3.6 million shares which did not move the price on the same day remains a mystery.

Putting my head on the block once again I think that for the moment the shorters have left - we will know soon enough as it will be reported on Monday or Tuesday if the % have fallen below 0.5% as they would have to have done if the 3.6 million share purchase related to them. The fall on Friday was general once the shorting figures are released this should rise and I believe it will - but the market and this share rarely do what they should.

Whilst we were chatting we missed a buy going through just after close for 3,678,510 shares! Is this the shorters leaving?

Franky you are certainly correct in stating that nobody knows when this will be resolved but I am glad you are sticking with it.

I was confident the deal would be done be end of QTR 2 as that is the timeframe we were given. My view changes depending upon how I interpret the information available. I don’t want to argue either I simply state what I believe you are perfectly entitled to disagree.

Sorry Stock you are not making sense. You appear to believe that the share price reflects the true value of the company? Knowing the difference between various market interventions I am suggesting that the company use the recognised tool of share buyback by using the assets of the company (cash) so that the shareprice is no longer undervalued. I would and have not suggested they do this on a whim because the price has moved a few pence but because the shareprice is massively misrepresentative of the value of the company and the share price is the normal tool an invester can use to determine that value. The share price although not specifically reported within the balance sheet is a fundamental indication of the health of the company. The shareprice is also fundamental should the company (ok probably not ACA but in general) wants or needs to raise finance or capital. Within the latest half year reports the company confirmed that it believes its stated asset value is correct and as its share price represents less than one third of its asset value then obviously the company believe its share price does not reflect its true value. I am aware that the shareprice can represent more or less than the NAV and look to invest as often as possible in companies where the share price is favourable just like WB! If you think it will take 1 to 2 years for the share price to finally reflect fair value then surely you would be better to sell, invest elsewhere and come back in 18 months ready for the agreement to be completed and the share price to return to its true value to do otherwise would appear to be rather foolish.

Yes 15th was the deadline to hold EGM and resolve before KD leaves as it requires 2 weeks notice to shareholders but KD and the board may well think he has done enough to announce the agreement before he leaves which then might have to be ratified via an EGM subsequently. I don’t really know what you mean when you say company has no obligation to stabilise share price although technically correct on a day to day basis looking at the normal ebb and flow of the market, they do have obligations to shareholders to protect the company value against manipulation. A share buy back is a frequently used tool in these and other circumstances. I would maintain that the share price is a fundamental barometer for the value and health of the company and intrinsic to determine its borrowing ability and ensure that the shareprice reflects the company’s true worth, not to mention its credit rating. Do you disagree?

Hi Stock, very surprised that you think it will take anything like that timeframe - can’t see Tanzania being able to hold out for that long. End of the month still my bet. Any longer and company need to embark on aggressive buyback campaign to stabilise the share price at £2.50 plus pending resolution.

Cont. ......better place/safer place to invest your money so unless circumstances are such that you have to take your money out of the market completely then sit tight.

Hi Franky hope all good with you. The market is certainly not helping our situation and a higher gold price might well have encouraged either or both parties to make further compromises to get on with the job of mining. I am sure that everyone will be taking a longer term view which must or at least should see an improvement in the price of gold, the macro situation suggests that the equity market will fall and people will move to gold - although it is developing economies that are normally the biggest buyer and they are just too scrapped for cash with the poor exchange rate against a raging dollar - so a lot of things have to come together first. Yesterday showed us a little of what the market can do so for me and probably many others regardless of the price of gold it is more the price as a hedge against the relative position of the rest of the market that keeps me invested in gold shares in general. I just can’t see myself selling here until we reach a resolution and I still believe that it will be good for us - we have passed at least two deadlines that I was hoping for - the end of the month marks another one as the fact that KD has not resigned is I believe significant for the reasons I have outlined before. Tanzania will be missing the revenue from ACA in a very real way - we are no longer bleeding cash and have our case lodged with International Arbitration which is progressing in the background (now 1yr in) so to be blunt we are playing both sides of the fence, we work towards a negotiated settlement with GoT but at the same time we are on top of our international appeal. Agreement with GoT is by far the best option for everyone but if it does not come then we have not been wasting our time. Barrick share price is below $10 over 50% down on year highs so they will be very keen on a resolution but not at the expense of a bad deal for them or the other shareholders of ACA - Tanzania does not have other options they will not nationalise and so the only way for them to get revenue is to agree a deal and for everyone to get back to work - the lawyers are making a fortune whilst we are in deadlock and I fear it will take the Bulldozer and JT getting involved again personally to finally sort this mess out Once the deal is done I am fairly sure it will be followed soon by a sale to the Chinese - Barrick have a better relationship with the Chinese than any other gold company probably better than any other company in any market and at the very least that has removed the threat real or imagined that GoT were trying to elbow us out and get the Chinese in - the Chinese will do a deal with us or not at all, they will not go behind our backs and try and do some shady deal with GoT (our relationship should at the very least give us a good negotiating position and increase our confidence with GoT). This has been a much longer journey than any of us probably intended but a resolution will be reached - I can’t see a better/safer plac

It has got to mean something.

Everything Trump is doing pushes the value of the dollar up which makes USA less competitive and against everything Trump stands for. Do you think he will ever be brave enough to do a Harold Wilson and devalue the dollar - brave or brilliant?

Fed intending to reduce QT by $50 billion per month surely that has got to lift the price of gold?

If there is news today then it would be announced after close of play in the USA. No promises - it would just make sense to get EGM done before KD leaves. Company M&A’s require ACA to give 2 weeks notice for AGM which would be required to agree terms of deal with GoT and/or offer from Barrick/Anglo/Sandong/other Chinese Co.

UK growth and manufacturing figures due out today likely to knock £ and therefore have beneficial effect on ACA. Super, I am sure that Abramovic’s decision to sell to Kaz was in large part a political one - I think he is essentially de risking. Let’s hope for another strong day.

MW increase their short to 0.71 (7/08) - yet they cannot hold the price back! I feel a little guilty for wishing that they get totally stuffed.

The small fluctuations at the moment are purely within the control of the shorters - when news breaks - almost whatever it is - this will rocket then pause before moving again depending on the strength of the deal or of course just get suspended pending the buyout. Don’t get left behind.

Yes Super the smelter is an asset but presumably everyone was aware of its existence before so it might already be at full capacity, I can’t see why else ACA have not been using it - even if they paid Anglo a premium. I anticipate the argument over the concentrate composite content to disappear as I believe that it was just a lever that GoT used to get a better deal. Let’s hope something is happening that moves us forward quickly.

Hi Super KD’s move to Anglo and the fact that he has not resigned from ACA cannot be a bad thing. Stock, my instinct tells me we could get news as early as close of play (US) tomorrow as that would give them time to call EGM before end of month they could potentially delay as long as another week but if KD hopes to conclude before he leaves then that is the timeframe. I have been wrong before. My bet - announcement of agreement with GoT and clarity as to terms - shares suspended - offer 2 ACA for 1 ABX possibly with a special dividend if ABX are entirely fair which I expect them to be. My only hesitation is that the shorters, who will surely have close contacts on the ground, have not left the field. Franky if you have managed to hold this long then dig in - Smiler I am rooting for you.