Member Info for BIGBangs

Thanks for the details MP. They (IC) or we do not know what the outcome of the negation will conclude but we have already been penalised by probably $1.5 billion due to the dispute so anything less than that in settlement should see us rally. $300 million plus a 50% economic interest and even a 16% carry is a pretty big carrot in my opinion so unless they (IC) know something nobody else is aware of and decided not to print it then I am happy to hold and am emboldened by Numis’s optimism they are, after all, involved at the sharpe end rather than commenting from the sidelines. As private investors all we can do is make ourselves familiar with what is known to the public and use our own skills to decide how that fits together to determine in our best view what is likely to happen next. GoT want a deal, we want a deal and the people of Tanzania need a deal so I believe it will happen, it will be reasonable and it will follow after the merger between RRS and ABX is concluded. Will a sale of some all all of the ‘newco’ African assets be sold to the Chinese (50:50 partnership) well I hope so but in any event this share remains massively undervalued.

Hi MP - I have not read the article and do not follow IC. Perhaps you could give us the jist of their argument and we can comment accordingly? If you purchase IC and you believe that it consistently benefits your investing decisions then I have to agree with Super in that if you are concerned you should sell. I am grateful for the opportunity to read opposing views to my own as I could have missed something or at the least countering the argument raised reminds me why I remain confidently invested. Whatever you decide the ATB.

Massively impressed by this guy/co RRS/Barrick even get a mention. I will certainly be looking at this company’s funds in the future. See link below. With regard to ACA - ABX/RRS shareholders vote on 7th which is Wednesday that will move us a big step closer to resolution. I believe we will break the £1.70 mark within next couple of weeks - I have been wrong before. The shorters are very skilled and they will soon accept that to acquire shares they need the price to rise to tempt more people to trade or exit. They will not want to be short when a deal with GoT is confirmed - as I have surely speculated before shorters leaving should get us to £2 - they may well go long. Deal with GoT could well see us rise to £4 but of course make up your own mind and act accordingly. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investingshow/article-6346801/Ruffer-23-shares-crashed-2008-investing-now.html

Barrick and Rangold increase their dividend - ‘ The Original Randgold Permitted Dividend was set at USD 2.00 per share which was based on Randgold’s dividend for the financial year ending 31 December 2017, and was equal to the largest per share dividend that had been paid by Randgold to date. Based on Randgold’s dividend policy and its financial performance in 2018 to date, Randgold has determined that the Increased Randgold Permitted Dividend of USD 2.69 per share for 2018 would be consistent with that dividend policy.  Based on the strong fundamentals of Barrick, including stronger cash flow generation, additional overhead cost savings, potential asset sale proceeds and lower interest costs, Barrick (and, after the Merger, the New Barrick Group) will target an annualized dividend of USD 0.16 per share. The Increased Barrick Q4 Permitted Dividend will achieve this in respect of the 2018 financial year. Thereafter, it is expected that the New Barrick Group will pay a quarterly dividend of USD 0.04 per share, commencing with the dividend to be declared and paid in respect of the first quarter of 2019. The declaration and payment of any such dividends will be at the discretion of the board of directors of the New Barrick Group.’ They will delay shareholder meeting until Nov 7th - interesting that they mention potential asset sale proceeds.

We are a week away from the shareholders vote to confirm the merger between ABX and RRS and I predict fireworks to celebrate this momentous development (sorry). Following the vote the new co will come to the market at the end of December and will be quickly followed by a re-rate to take into account the new company’s assets and prospects. This is good news for us the only downside not being in £ terms but in what that might buy us in relation to the newly re-rated share price - I am sure that the price will rise to match the offer and there will be a time delay between the almost inevitable share offer and it coming into effect, not to mention our vote which must surely be a formality- this will enable those that prefer not to go forward with the NYSE listed Barrick Group to cash out and decide where to invest next. For my part I am very tempted by the new Barrick Group shares and would also see a benefit, for the moment at least, to hold this $ stock - I suppose the offer will help me to decide. You may want to prepare by contacting your broker to complete the necessary form to hold US stock within your account, this is very easy and can be done online.

Good article Super - shows how difficult things can get. Glencore has little choice but to settle but they have set a precedent for this money making exploitation. The stakes are large so a compromise is always possible. Seems all the more likely to me that Chinese partners with their massive ‘aid’ budget would help smooth the waters. Having said that MB built the mine in DRC from scratch - I think we can rely on him to sort it out and the GoT - the sooner we can get back to full production the better for all concerned.

For the record, I think the likelihood of a potential deal with the Chinese has actually increased since the RRS announcement - the deal could now include 50% of some or all of the RRS African assets that would benefit massively from the Chinese participation. I think we are looking at a true African powerhouse that will benefit us as shareholders and the Governments and people of Africa - time will tell but think about it.

Glad to hear it Pat. Most of us will be in profit by then but remember many, the institutions included, have been holding since over £5. The fundamentals are strong here and so are the opportunities - try not to worry and review your decision now and again as the price rises the temptation to sell will grow.

Pat we have been through this before - granted some time ago and possibly before you became a shareholder. JT of ABX has a better relationship with the Chinese than, in my opinion, any other business person in the world - look him up. The Chinese will not do a deal with GoT against our will and Got can’t make us sell, what they want most of all is a good face saving deal and they will get it. When JT made a statement that a sale to the Chinese was almost 100% likely he already knew that ABX were doing a deal with RRS. In my view ABX will buy the outstanding share for a price of over £4 and they will then sell a 50% stake to the Chinese to create a spectacular team with ABX/RRS and China you must decide for yourself what you think will happen and act according. Sooner or later the MW will allow the price to rise to encourage many more people - happy to be in or near profit following a long haul to exit that is the only way that they (MW) will be able to buy the many millions of shares that they need to square their position with Blackrock. I intend to hold until at least the deal has been agreed and almost certainly longer but I fully accept that others may decide that to sell and move on - there is no shame in that.

I would think that is extremely likely - they identify loaned stock within their holding RNS.

MW now extended their short position to 0.8% as of 23/10. So there is your proof Stock that it is their desperation that is selling into the market and not holders selling.

Looks like they have doubled the spread just for you guys!

Just one more point for now. ABX will want to conclude the deal with GoT before they buy ACA shares as currently they do not have to include the ridiculous but issued tax bill of $1.9 billion within their accounts - you could argue that as it is disputed and ridiculous they would not have to include it anyway but much easier (for them at least) to sort it after the RRS merger.

Thanks dimi, are you suggesting that ABX could sell their holding without first sorting out the position with GoT- I think not. Once a resolution has been reached the SP here will be significantly higher and therefore the value of ABX holding. They are not bound to buy up the outstanding shares to sell their stake but if they were inclined to sell then it would make sense for the buyer to make a full offer or more likely for ABX to buy up then sell on in whole or in part.

Thanks Super but trying to talk and talking remain different things. If they really wanted something to do and it would be an extremely brave move, they could open up a dialogue with Goldfinger about a potential bid. ACA have preemption rights and although I do t know what they are if they included a ‘push me pull you’ clause, if they thought that the final offer from ABX did not achieve full value they could potentially join with Goldfinger to buy the ABX holding at the offer price. I don’t suggest this and it would be a radical move that I might not be brave enough to do myself if I were in their position, especially as part of the deal may involve joining with GoT to sue ABX for whatever is alleged to have happened pre IPO but it is a thought. No better just work on ABX to sort GoT and conclude the sale of outstanding shares at the best price possible.

Difficult to say for sure but probably and in any event it would not feel right if they were buying or selling shares at this point. I am fairly sure the board would have had to disclose any holding when they recommend the merger.

If course they are insiders they are handling negotiations with GoT but would be viewed as insiders even if this was being done by ACA directly.

To be honest HN I am completely lost for words at this breaking news which had been totally missed by this board. If you hurry perhaps you should place a short on the stock to take advantage before the market reacts?

Sorry Super but as insiders Barrick are precluded from buying even 1 share. Aca management will serve us best by pushing Barrick on their own they can do nothing with GoT and will probably not even get a meeting. Aca managers can console themselves with the nil paid options they have been given - they and we knew they were interim. Sometimes I have to wonder about holders here - there is a clear trend of the shares dropping in the morning and rising in the afternoon - unfortunately shares do not rise in a nice straight line. The fact that the institutions have held for the last two years shows the market confidence in this share. Pi buyers have been coming back since the mid 90p’s but now following the big rises in the last month or so are reluctant to buy in at these new levels not because they/we do not think it will rise higher but because they/we either brought in recently at lower levels or are already fully committed to this share - this leaves the SP at the mercy of the shorters who sell in the morning and buy in during the day. As they will do again today in addition to whatever the US decides to do though I agree they are likely to be buying. ABX will buy up the ACA shares - our own ponderings and the leaks to the market confirm this and I am entirely confident it will happen at a price significantly higher than we see today. The shorters closing their posts will take this share to £2 in short order. The deal with RRS goes to shareholders on Nov 5th - the real action will begin then some in the public glare but most in the background. If holders are going to worry every 5 minutes about the SP then it really might be best for them to sell up and sit on their cash - whatever works for them - for those that hold, buy in or increase the gains will be significant.

Forgot to tip my hat to Arbitrader who was the first here to spot the news - well done and thank you for alerting us.