All that RNS does is ensure the SP will sink to 5p anyway.
What I meant was that after they seized the opportunity to sell high the Directors would likely have been criticised when they re bought cheaply - we have surely all seen this before. I think it unlikely that they will be criticised in the same way for buying in during a placing. Please don’t think for a second that I am happy with any of this but I will be more disappointed if they do not buy during the placing.
Chris, I would hope and expect the Directors to be buying in with significant numbers - this was probably the only way they could do so without criticism. I fully expect placing to be announced shortly and will be pleased to have it out of the way as speculation has been ridiculous - let’s just hope they are able to suggest some very good reasons about what they intend to do with the money.
Personally I believe we should keep the kit - we are not aware that there is currently any charge for us having it so why not. I accept that you have largely given up on the COVID angle but many of us have not - I realise how ridiculous I may sound after the last 18 months but COVID orders which are still out there can still be a game changer, pursuing those opportunities are still vital and in my opinion not trying to finally maximise on whatever opportunity is left would be foolish.
Guys I still believe that ODX has great potential almost despite themselves but until we get a RNS clearly stating that they do not intend to pursue a placing until ….or confirming a placing I believe that the SP will continue to drift. Perhaps the CE news means that can go for a higher price, take less cash now or preferably both I for one will not be buying more. I am heavily invested, massively underwater and will apply for all or any placing shares I am offered but we need clarification.
From my own experience it is very difficult for a BoD to turn away the opportunity of cash if they have a clear view of it. I doubt they would have got it away before the HUA but now……
Although nothing is confirmed ODX went from saying no fund raise needed (I believed them) to confirmation that rumours were correct and that they had actually been talking to people. My own view is that we have moved on from a discussion about whether or not a fund raise is required to a discussion about when it will happen. Speculation is entirely damaging and in my opinion the sooner the better so we can move forward without this hanging over us. Guess we will find out pretty soon.
Personally I doubt that until the issue of the placing is resolved. If there is a placing then it would be the perfect opportunity for any interested institutional investors to get on board - I sincerely hope they do.
From their website:-
‘Lansdowne Capital is a corporate finance advisory and private investment firm. We provide M&A, capital raising and other corporate finance advisory services to a group of international clients. We also co-invest alongside client and client-related companies and participate on company boards and committees.’
They are not and never claimed to be distributors, their role is to potentially seek out and negotiate with potential distributors on behalf of ODX. They found the deal with DAM and surely we cannot criticise them for not providing more opportunities as we had no approvals to sell anything, as it transpired, not even to DAM. I think they are now well placed to provide ODX with concrete opportunities for home use sales across Europe. As it stands we have a binding agreement with DAM for the sale of tests for professional use, presumably within the areas they operate but this could be extended to the much larger home use market, whatever ODX may have been doing from what we have seen DAM are ready and willing to expand their market to the whole of Europe and if they are not ready other players will surely step forward.
Personally I do not think that ODX have the cash or the leadership to set up a distribution network from scratch and I struggle to find any downside with distributing through Amazon - let’s hope someone is working on it.
If we are aiming for ideal then I would simply look at your original question OkE, that the dispute becomes mute as we get a new, hopefully better, contract with the DHSC and the advance is returned in full by deduction from orders on a per penny per unit basis - could definitely happen we just need that break or bit of luck that has so far eluded us.
I am not aware that we know the reason for the dispute or even that a dispute exists. What we know is that ODX received the money and when the contract did not proceed HMG asked for the money back - you would probably expect this as a general practice. ODX believed at the time that no money was due to be repaid and took legal advise to back up this belief. As far as I am aware we do not know if following the breakdown that ODX presumably submitted that HMG are still pursuing the return of funds in full or in part or, which is probably more likely, have not responded to ODX as to their current position. For what it’s worth having read the contract I do not personally believe that ODX will be required to repay any or most of the money as they tooled up with staff etc in belief and reliance on the contract proceeding - that is what ODX have actually said and on this occasion I am inclined to believe them. Having said that I do now believe, despite the original indications to the contrary, that ODX will now pursue a placing.As this will remove the doubt, inject funds and potentially facilitate ODX pursing other approvals and actually benefiting from the massive news that the CE mark has been applied, dispute the obvious dilution I think it will be a good thing - not least because it will remove the speculation. I will take all the placing shares that I may be offered. ATB
And today Tanzania mines - now achieve 500k ounces per annum and join their tier one mines. How surprising.
Sorry Okehurst but I just don’t see this happening - potentially a take over target at this price but splitting it up, I feel is unlikely and dare I say unwarranted. Putting aside now historic issues of poor communication pushing up the SP on what turned out to be false hope fired by a government contract that despite everything came to nothing the worldwide market for LFT is still there. I believe we have the capacity to produce 100m tests per annum and can probably do this as well as anyone for a price that is competitive. If/when approvals land the opportunity is still substantial within the Covid market in addition to the other avenues in which ODX is already involved. Approvals open the market to us - press speculation is that a pack of 7 tests will cost the public £30, that is £4.28 per test - we can do that and with the right approvals there is no reason why we could not be listed as a supplier and that together with the testing still required for air travel to other countries, NHS requirements, probably the civil service, teachers, fire services and police (whose unions will probably insist of free testing) let alone general testing here and abroad our 100 million, a drop in the ocean, could finally be required and wanted. I believe we have enough cash, properly managed, to get us through, it is as it always was about achieving approvals.
ODX were not required to make any statement of their current cash position but chose to confirm they had in excess of the disputed amount in an attempt, in my view, to calm suggestions that in the unlikely event some or all of the advance was repayable we had the funds to pay it without requiring a fund raise. We can bat this back and forth forever but the RNS simply stated in excess of and nothing more can be learnt from that. I see Okehurst ‘s figures as a much more sound reasoning as to the company’s current position.
I do not suggest that our current cash burn is appropriate for our current sales but in excess of £2.5 million, (the disputed sum with HMG) does not mean anything other than what it says and it is a big jump and in my opinion wrong to suggest that this means we have spent £2.1 m in 3 months.
Probably with good intentions but certainly politically motivated the actions taken by the Good Law Project has led to yet more purchases of inferior Chinese LFT and helped to crush the UK diagnostics industry. A government with dodgy procedures terrified to purchase within the UK. So far at least we as a society are reliant upon Chinese imports and have, again so far, missed the opportunity to build up our own industry, to secure jobs for tax paying UK residents and tax income from successful UK companies - who won?
Yes but currently our cost base is very high compared to our sales as we have geared up for full production - when approvals finally land full production would justify the staff numbers and therefore the overhead.
Very few companies would be able to commit to never needing a fund raise and a positive comment that one is not needed now and therefore presumably not foreseeable by the board is a positive. I do not believe ODX will have to repay the £2.5 million as they spent the money by preparing to fulfil the contract that we had every reason to believe was forthcoming, my recollection of the contract terms is that therefore it will not be repayable. I do not totally rule out a government contract in the future although I can barely get excited about it. The potential following approvals is through commercial sales, probably led by Dam or negotiated by others. Once we achieve approvals and have sales lined up the SP will rise, if at that point and based on signed orders we were to consider a fund raise to buy the HMG equipment at a deeply discounted price I would, if we needed it, think a fund raise would then be worth considering - I can think of no other reason, other than sales, that a fund raise would be considered or necessary. At the risk of repeating myself, it’s all about approvals and perhaps then we will sell all we can produce.
Although I am certainly willing to take any positive, the fact that the non Covid business progressed well sums up the limit of CK’s ability, a plodder who was beguiled by the government contract but unable to maximise on the opportunity- certainly not his fault entirely HMG were duplicitous - many of us have learnt a very expensive lesson about dealing with government bodies. Moving forward approvals with subsequent sales into Europe, the UK and potentially the US will give us the opportunity of achieving fair value.
The bottom line must be that Colin was out of his depth and has gone, few will be unhappy by this move and it does give the company an opportunity to move forward. I appreciated the confirmation, once again that no fund raise is needed at this time. I hope that Jag proves to be a more dynamic leader and can, now given the lead, reinvigorate the company. I would not be disappointed if they decided to replace the PR company who must share in the blame for poor communication but the full focus must be on obtaining approvals, a positive outcome will make a significant difference to sentiment and SP. ATB