Member Info for big-blue

.... sub to the rat tail predictions is extra, £100 per month. No discounts.

.... and I seem to finally have the uncoupling of the sp between IAG and Easy that I have been looking for for a long time. Not in the direction I would have initially wanted but then again I'll be buying a wadge of shares at a very significant discount in Easy, and when it all shakes out at the end of the month I'll be well on top. Used rats tails to predict that one, lol

.... and I also pointed out the closing price would be of interest, without drawing a single line on a chart anywhere, and look at, just midgen down on the day now. Vodoo - now that's the secret, lol. Wanna buy a sub for 6 months to my vodoo chicken bone predictions??? Only £300 a month! More than worth it.

19th March + 3 to 4 weeks does not equal the second week in SEPTEMBER. Frankly you lot call a whole host of predictions AFTER the event and have covered so many bases in random predictions that to NOT have a reference to a price anywhere from 100 to 1000 would be the odd bit. Loads and loads of others have called 150, 160, 140 and all manner of others without drawing lines on charts to coincide with your late predictions after the event. You have to sell it to yourself don't you. Keep paying the subs!

UNBELIEVABLE.

Snake oil merchants have the sheer gore to post utter rubbish that this was all fore told and was there in the charts all along. NO! Not a single one of you at any point had any reference to the sp today because you can not chart in the consequences of another major stock in the sector depressing the market due to a rights issue.

THIS sort of event really calls out you shysters for what you are. The FCA should abolish all chartist scams.

Sodding news still trying to blame lorry movement shortage and empty shelves on Brexit and still not noting the fact a lot of drivers will not cross the channel because of the bloody tests and the risk of being pinged. This is turning into a serious distortion of the real world. It is important for all shareholders or potential investors because above all else, these blasted tests that serve no useful purpose are wrecking large swathes of the economy yet are not being called out and put under scrutiny. Hence the vain politicians are not addressing there withdrawal. And on it goes.....

nothing, I'm going to wait until getting into mid-september and sell some Easy to pay for the issue. I have a strong feeling the sp will have recovered well above this dip as September progresses and rumours about the travel restriction changes on 1st October become known. In fact, I might even leave it to the last day for settling, 24th. Means I can dump for profit on the 27th and have a full keg of dry powder for the IAG switcheroo. I could be making a real mountain of cash here!

I'll say it again for those that missed it - the end of day price could be very interesting. US will buy in on the depressed prices.

Some confidence to book has been restored, but people are booking on a speculative basis that by the time their trip comes up there will be a dramatic change or removal of the test regime. The bookings may be for full flights, but the no shows are reducing load factor. People are cancelling for refunds within the cancellation window for refunds rather than spending money on the tests.. There are also a lot of deferred flights that were paid for last year. There is no revenue for those flights.

The point to bear in mind, how much are the tickets? I have done some skyscanner trawls and the ticket prices are eye poppingly small. IAG can not possibly continue with the cash burn in this way for four years as the news story posted earlier stated. Furlough ends soon, in fact the claim back is already lower from 80 to 60%. I still reckon it is 90% probably IAG will raise more money. How? Amount? Main purpose? Who knows. 50% probability IAG will sell off BA. IAG may be pushed into doing that by the commission anyway to allow the Air Europe acquisition. The EU commission doesn't have it's own 'flag carrier' as such so.... well all sorts of stuff could happen. Actually, it might be a good time for a bit of carpet bagging for the whole aviation sector!

Yes Menzair, I picked up a news report that New York was going it alone recognising the Astra vacc for proof of vaccination for venue access. I expect that to snowball which is why my first educated guess is that a limited set of routes will be opened, with a pax influx limit and possibly movement limits intra USA [probably with a credit check so only the biggest spenders will be allowed in first, lol]. I am putting a fiver down saying Vegas will be in the 1st batch of airports to open up, if not exclusively the only one. The other option is Hawaii, that could also open up first. But I don't think IAG has covered cancellations with any insurance policy, that would be very costly and I don't think there is such a policy for airlines. Previously the passenger bore the cost of changes or cancellations on most tickets, and tickets with no loss were expensive to begin with as they have an insurance built in the airline and agents.

Well IAGLong, if you had been paying attention you would know I have been going lukewarm on the prospect of being able to do the switcheroo, and if there was an opportunity then it would most likely only provide a small bit of icing on the cake. I instead have settled to sit on my hands until a few weeks before cop26 and sell, even at a loss all of Easy and also keep a very close eye on indicators that the US routes may begin to open, indicators from the main point of objection that Astra is not on the FDA approved list. We have some new news today that could put the switcheroo back in play. It all depends on how far down the line the US corridor will remain closed or we will not have a road map. As it happens I am delighted I sat on my hands to see what would happen since I will now receive the Easy offer. So if anyone did follow my movements, they would be number one on the runway for a very easy mark up later this month. I won't even be putting new money in, I will just accept all the shares offered, pick a date to sell just enough of the existing holding to cover up to the day of settlement and watch my overall value jump 10 or 20%. Easy Jet - Easy money! If the US corridor is still not announced then I can sell all of Easy ahead of cop26 and be well placed to jump in take any cream off the milk when the news rumour mill starts with the Astra jab being listed by the FDA by buying all IAG for a short time. Irrespective of cop26, the US corridor will trump any anomalies cop26 will bring for a short time.

I'm happy to document my thinking and plans, I keep a 360 and always ready to jump in and out.

oh come on benji you must be joking trying to pretend your charts have some bearing on what is happening. You are seriously deluded. Do you pay a subscription for these charts or something? Have you had to convince yourself they must mean something for you to come to terms you ended up paying money for this crap?

Blimey! Good luck wizz. Unless the junk bonds of the 80's are going to make a comeback I really don't fancy your chances. That is one very small minnow trying to swallow one very big shark. Mind you, makes my chuckle at the impertinence of it. Little whippersnappers.

A lot of people have the opinion that the travel ban should be lifted for double vaccinated travellers. There must be a thousand posts on this board alone. Copying someone's point of view from a 'blog' and posting it elsewhere doesn't suddenly give it credence. You are very easily manipulated benjie. Did your crayon lines on your charts predict today's market movements? No, because this is the real world where real actual events and sh.i happens.

Mnazi, I don't put money on my books that could potentially be taken off later, the money taken in advance bookings with the cancellation policy as it now stands is more of a liability. Don't forget, there are costs like pension contributions that have to be back dated in the future. And what are the forward bookings looking like? With the travel ban to the states showing no sign of a let up, it is enough to keep hesitation in the market. PCR tests are still a mega problem putting people off. And IAG may want to simply have the reserve to be in on the mayhem poker game of airline cards about to happen.

benji, benji, that sort of information has been around for months. We appreciate you are only starting to catch up on the old news but perhaps you should wait until you are upto date on the history before posting anymore. You are making a right fool of yourself.

..... and before you all start, yes there is a lot of Easy J on the IAG board. A lot of people in IAG are also in other airlines and frankley the kind of activity seen with Easy to day is more than relevant to taking a 360 on what IAG might do next. Be honest, is the prospect of IAG raising money more or less probable now? Exactly, which is why being exposed to other information is a bonus. Ryanair, will their be an announcement to the US markets when they open later that it is also going to raise? If there are going to be cheapo buyout options then I can say with some confidence Ryan will want to have some skin in the game and so may quickly move to line it's coffers. Will that make the prospect of IAG raising money more or less probable? And, considering the 360, Iag have been talking of setting up a low cost carrier out of Gatwick. Was it IAG that made the 1p per share approach to Easy?????? Will IAG now also jump on board and raise so it too has money either buyout ar prevent buyouts.

There was always going to be musical chairs as some airlines go bust form the pandemic. IAG are ahead of the game if they can get past the EU competition rules with Air Europe. ANd as the musical chairs starts off, always keep in mind the EU political position, inward looking, non-democratic, socialist, full of green crap and UK hating with the expressed intent of a waging a never ending war to regain ownership of all UK assets, people, land and seas that they believe they own by default. The post-pandemic shake up could be a business like cordial a fair across many industries and society, or it could end up with yet another war in europe. Has the starting gun been fired this morning. Stay tuned......

Slim_Shady, the article also points to that cash burn being dependant on the transatlantic market opening up. There is no way IAG could continue with the present market for four years. No chance.

THe close price will be very interesting. There will have been a lot of knee jerk sells and a huge amount of stops triggered. PIs will be looking at their portfolios and noticing they have sold off their Easy J. The date of entitlement was 6pm 8th September so if you are buying today in the hope of getting the offer, you missed the boat. However, there will also be a lot of Easy pi selling now to raise the funds for the offer. So if it is a 10% drop now, for a 30%+ markup, that has got to be one of the biggest no brainers of all time.

DO Easy need the money?

"Update on trading
In August 2021, UK domestic capacity was at 105% of 2019 levels with a load factor of 82%, whist intra-EU capacity was at
81% of 2019 levels with a load factors of 85%, demonstrating the strength of the Group's UK domestic and intra-EU flying
schedule.
The Directors expect the Group's capacity in Q4 2021 to be approximately 57% of Q4 2019 levels, which is a significant
increase compared to Q3 2021, when easyJet flew 17% of Q3 2019 capacity. During Q4 2021, the Company expects to
increase capacity allocation and improve expected load factors on both UK domestic and intra-EU flying, with UK domestic
capacity already at pre-pandemic levels.
Looking into Q1 2022, the Company currently expects to fly up to 60% of Q1 2019 capacity with a continued focus on
profitable flying.
"

I don't think they need the money. They are either getting ready for a takeover or getting ready to do some takeovers. IAG managed to half the price of the Air Europe takeover, Easy may see or have already setup some very good deals. But, 360, Easy is seen as a bit of a UK airline as the HQ is based in Luton. Will the EU allow Easy to takeover EU airlines by non-EU airlines, especially a UK airline? Regulation authority may be a big problem here, under political control. And this is why I have a strong feeling that IAG will have to spin off BA.

Hey, here's one. Is Easy J lining up to buy up BA when it is spun off?????? Imagine the new livery, YUK!