Member Info for big-blue

If the Whitehouse has entered a bunker mentality, it requires a change of mind to crawl out of it. No matter how blindingly obvious the argument is, no matter who is screaming in your ear the truth, even the most regarded people can just stand still petrified and imobile. Fear of the unknown, fear of success. The are crippling conditions when they take hold and they can paralyse anybody and group think. The US is sound wound up in so many tight knots with so many red lines and unlimited vanity, it wouldn't surprise me if they did stay closed up. In such circumstances, that is when true leaders shake everybody up and give direction. The US does not have that now, they did with Trump bizarrely. Biden is literally the zombie so many Americans fear. It allows for committees of people with different opinions to fight over the puppet strings. The end result is the strings get all knotted and policy paralysis ensues.

I like that prose. Copyright me!

Well, Easy J is 6% up! Everything is up. I was expecting a continuation of yesterday's decline as the RI issue continues to hang in the air. I would make a guess and say the reshuffle has gone down better than I expected, there are still a few travel blockers in the cabinet, PP and Gove for example. But it seems the market likes the reshuffle.

There may also be something else on the wire which is leaking through the RNS news sieve feed, especially where Easy J is concerned. But the US hasn't opened yet, but fingers crossed I finally got something wrong! First time for everything I suppose, lol.

I see your irish ambassador story benji,

and I raise you a delay until mid 2022

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/eu-travellers-may-be-banned-from-entering-us-until-2022-midterm-elections-expert-warns/

"Anyone can browse or comment on the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to start a new topic.

Guest users need to have their content approved by a moderator. ""

And that is the most important bit. ArvinIG post "Why are IAG shares falling?" hasn't even been moderated.

Sorry folks, I know how much a number of you have hung on to that quote as a basis for discounting the CS, the bank! It is an unmoderated opinion. I should have bothered to due some due diligence on it, but having problems with production facilities in China so having to actually do some work rather than post on here all the time. Little burgers want to up the shipping again.

It gets worse, IG.com is basically a bb for people to put there ideas. In fact, that post about no need for RI has absolutely no validity whatsoever.

"IG Community
This forum was created for like minded clients to share trade ideas and discuss market opportunities.

Learn from experienced traders
Give tips to the Community
Perfect your trading strategy
Get the most out of IG
Anyone can browse or comment on the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to start a new topic.

Guest users need to have their content approved by a moderator. "

"Credit Suisse analysts believe IAG has about four more years of cash-burn coverage and thus should not need to raise equity this year."
https://community.ig.com/blogs/entry/1013-why-are-iag-shares-falling/

""We think it is getting increasingly likely IAG looks to raise equity, and while we do not change our forecasts in this note (which are each €0.5bn below Bloomberg consensus EBIT in 2021-2022E), we reflect the risk of shareholder dilution in our target price."

The bank said it is conscious that until the transatlantic market re-opens unfettered, the IAG investment case will remain challenging.

However, it retained its ‘outperform’ rating on the stock, saying it continues to see it as one of the best ways to play ultimate air travel recovery across the value chain, alongside names such as Ryanair, Wizz Air, Airbus and Aena.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/credit-suisse-cuts-iag-price-target-to-reflect-rights-issue-risk--8085701.html

One of them is telling porkies. I note however, the 1st quote is from a 'blog'. Is it the opinion of the blogger that IAG won't need to raise, or the opinion of CS [as the sentence appears to state]. I fink this is a poorly worded statement form a blogger who has no deeper insight than any of us and this was his own opinion. I can not find any quote from CS to back up what he has 'blogged'. As always, do the 360 and consider the qualifications of those making statments.

If, if, there is an RI, the change in price in the Easy J rights, [EZJN], is a good lesson on getting to understand what the various options are. Selling the rights, the price was 30% down yesterday, today is only 15% down. Yesterday I did some estimates on mark-up for selling the right shares based on asp of 580, it is now 594 which is another 14p with a right offer of 410 a share. I will still probably leave it to the last minute on the 22nd to decide.

I don't do twitter or any of that stuff. Good luck getting a response!

Paddy, you are very wrong saying the company is not obliged to respond. It is, I posted the stock exchange rules about it yesterday. When it is appropriate to respond is the question. Like I said yesterday, if this was a Motley Fool article, then it can be ignored as the publication has no weight. The critical outlets where comments are more likely to require a response is when analysts have attended private briefings as defined in the exchange rules. Credit Suisse falls squarely into that category and was making a comment in a broker note. The next test is the likelihood that the market may be affected by the information. Broker price predictions do not require any comment, but new regulations to be introduced actually are expected to require a comment on broker price notes. Would the prospect of an RI affect the market and share price? Well yes, probably the most fundamental statement except for an insolvency notice. By the reporting rules the conditions are met. There is provision for the company to opt to say nothing, but that is only if the market would be unduly influenced by not commenting.

On that basis, the speculation on the RI warrants a comment such as a denial. I am not the only one who has noticed no comment. SO we speculate why no comment and derive a reasonable argument that there is one but details are not finalised. I have raised an alternative reasonable argument that CS has screwed up but so far there has been no retraction. However, even with that alternative explanation, IAG could very easily answer the speculation if there was indeed no RI.

As for Gwhizz, was that just a deliberate misdirection of what I said or have you lost your reading glasses?

Whatever anybody says, there was a pretty explicit speculative comment with significant implications from a source that by exchange rules would be very conscious of the potential consequences. The board at IAG have been significantly negligent in not responding if there was basis for the speculation. I would argue enough for a wrist slapping from the FCC. Alternatively, there is basis to speculation but the company is in a bind unable to issue details because of disclosure rules. In which case the broker has been negligent for putting the company in such an awkward position and should be censured. We are currently in a blackout news wise and have to wait to see how it unfolds. I will be truly gobsmacked if we are in the new year and there has been no reference to the speculation either from the company, broker or regulating authorities.

So who they Teddy?

Comments on this board? Comments were referring to a broker note or loads of people saying don't sell, don't sell. Each individual must make up their own mind. Looking at the trades going through, there are large chunks or buys and sells. How it will shake out into the afternoon will be interesting. I still expect a red day.

I've never paid any attention to the price predictions from brokers since they are so varied from so called experts it proves monkeys from London zoo are just as adept at stock picking as the analysts.

What I do take note of is any comments attached. The broker notes are sourced from exclusive briefings and can be the first indication of something substantial. A RI is, a argue, something substantial. It was a comment not to be disregarded.

There is a palpable sense of relief, even jingoistic euphoria, from some this morning as it is marched back up the hill from a new low. But, if I know anything about how those computer algorithms work, traders can not sit back and relax. The iis do not giveth easily, they take instead.

I don't care either way about any RI with IAG, I've already said my trading will be relative to the sp on the day, not a strategic position mid or long term. I am only commenting on what was speculated from credible sources which could be answered in a very simple announcement form the company. They haven't said anything. The speculating hangs in the air. Don't start getting at me for what CS said and what IAG havn't said. I'm just an iggle wiggle innocent third party i n all of this.

On the balance of probabilities, IAG have not answered the rumour. That is the fundamental point. And deflecting arguments that they don't need to comment on price predictions doesn't help the rampers cause. Nobody is talking about that. It is the clear reference in the broker note about the possibility of an RI. Maybe CS should have withdrawn that broker note immediately. Maybe IAG should have denied the comment immediately. Remember, those analyst conferences get privileged information under the exchange disclosure system to assist in market regulation to smooth out shocks to the system.

No denial, the speculation is still in the air.

Paddy, I also think they find themselves in a bit of a difficult position. I was umming and arring last night about the possibility that CS has made an error going public with something that it was privy to in the private briefing the 'analysts' are allowed under exchange rules. For certain, their broker note was unusual in that it put a qualification on its change of target note. Most don't. The air does need clearing. The speculation is having a material effect on the sp and so an RNS will have to issued at some point.

Still nothing form IAG to deny the RI speculation from Credit Suisse, or the media questions put directly to the company. If there was nothing to the rumours, then a brief RNS would sort that out. The silence is deafening. sp will drop another 3 or 4% with no news from IAG itself [unless CS come out and say they made an error and back track on their note, but that would be extraordinary].

so no Atlantic free travel this month!

Gove still in government, would rather he was out.

Very interesting pact. Where is France? Where is the EU? Where is NATO? Biden considers it important enough to show up to the conference - and promptly forgets the name of the Australian PM. Not senile!

Something big is going down at the moment, 3 way live broadcast with UK US and Australia. This is sudden and not trailed.

Very curious.