Member Info for big-blue

Imarcharm, I think borrowing more is off the table. I think the debt liability to asset and cash flow ratio has been stretched to the limit with the loss of end of summer early autumn travel. The banks will want cover of the existing debt. What would be interesting to know is how the insurance premium has changed for the banks for cover they have for IAG default - i.e. insolvency.

"If there is an RI I’ll just tail swallow, fundamentals are right now." I do hope for your sake you get the opportunity because my expectation is of an equity swap or share issue limited to iis and/or present holders over a threshold - i.e. qataris buying a bigger share. All you will get out of it is dilution and no way to cover it. That's the red flag for me and there is nothing indicating it has gone away!

As for the idea that adding a new fuel surcharge will have no consequences on price, people will just pay anything, well that is crazy. If that was the case, why don't the airlines just double, triple or quadruple their prices now? I think sundanzer will find the airlines do extensive research on price sensitivity and together with market forces they have already pushed prices as far as the market will stand. It is quite dramatic what 1p change in price will do form £4.99 to £5! Airline pricing is a very tight algorithm.

There is ALWAYS going to be an announcement on the US opening up, it has been just around the corner since June! So the big news posted below that there is to be an announcement in the next couple of weeks is nothing to get excited about. That takes us to the start of November indicating that the full opening up will be the end of November. That is consistent with the chief medical advisor to Biden saying December will be the opening time.

One possibility is that a limited number of ports might be opened mid-November to allow a concentration of resources to check documents, ports with the space and facilities to handle queues.

We will know soon now and from that we will see what financial package was agreed with the banks in response to the US date.

BB had no fore warning that Easy j was going to drop a RI. As well informed and educated as he is, BB never mastered theart of drawing crayon lines on graphs whilst luckin' the air to predict the future. BB must have missed the 3 brokers advising the expectation of Easy's RI. Whatever.

Will you people not finish your obsession of me. Filter and go. Be done with you. It is very embarrassing

Qataries... Whole heap of financial options. It depends if they are looking at dividend returns or selling stake returns. Difficult to now the motives. they have enough money to take haircut without worry. Money at that level is confetti, it is saving face the most important. An exit that makes them look good or wise would be more important. I don't think they would exit. Prestige pf having stake in BA. I think they would do a loss making deal but end up full ownership of BA and then make a note of it in the Royal Box at Ascot!!!!

Quote from a fictional Hollywood flick. Inspiring I'm sure.

There are no 'scare' or 'tactics'. There was a point blank refusal to acknowledge the plain words from the brokers.

It never got further whether a RI would be good or bad or what the other options were. Every denial had to be responded too.

I suspect some of them denying the words may be all in and obviously terrified of further dilution. This panic and filtering being a form of displacement behaviour.

That, Imarch, is a sensible reply. But the response since the broker notes on any reasonable discourse has been fanatical to point of real hysterics. The deniers refuse to acknowledge the possible options and instead post false denials actively trying to dupe people to buy as if there was no risk. It has been extraordinary with half a dozen on them amalgamating in to one fibrous mass of denial filtering any voice not on their,narrative. It has been hilarious at times.

Not being merged with LEVEL then, I thought the idea was it would be part of the low cost LEVEL. However, most of LEVEL has been allowed to go to the wall this year. There is not much of LEVEL left, some long haul from Paris and Madrid. If there is no paint job then I'll stop putting my tender together and get a refund on the rollers from Wicks.

Medium term forecast for IAG is almost impossible. Environmental restrictions on travel, industry consolidation post covid, mismanagement of recovery [we can see that all around us at the moment, who would have thought so many people would simply not return to their jobs taking early retirement]. In fact long term on practically any stock is very difficult. Especially factoring in the rise and rise of China. Maybe a future strategy would be to shadow Chinese sovereign fund investments. At least you know there will be plenty of money available.

Yes it is a pre-pay service, however bear in mind there have been a lot of pre-paid to date which have been deferred repeatedly. How many of those transatlantic flights will be pre-paid from 2 months ago, 4 months ago, 8 months ago???? Any cash now for Q1&2 2022 might help the winter lull but the money to actual provide those flights will still be needed. And on top the debt has to be serviced, it just simply can not be put to one side and dealt with latter under Benji boy economics.

The cash flow might hold up but the servicing of debt and pensions and leases and property portfolio and licenses and refunds and and and ..... Don forget, this isn't just British Airways, there are also dead weights around the neck within IAG as well as trying to fund expansion plans. How much to repaint air Europe's aircraft? I think the city would be happier if IAG let Air Europe go and concentrated on keeping what it has now afloat.

Cash, if only. You'll need a lot of passengers paying very high prices for a long time!

Could sell off an asset or two. But with most analyst expecting mergers and airlines folding, nor much cash there. IAG already cut in half what they were going to pay for air Europe and that was well before it was known summer travel was lost.

The financing alternatives, the CEO talked about. An RI would be best for share holders because other forms of dilution would mean retail investors don't get the opportunity to off set a diluted share price. The worst scenario would be a share issue restricted to iis like a debt swap or YA death spiral. The retail investors simply get dilution then. However the CEO could claim he is not raising money from pis beung consistent with his stated aims.

I suspect further credit is off the table though.

Other alternatives to avoiding a RI? Any guesses?

Yes, like this totally random unsourced set of wild statements passed on;

"""We have revolving credit facilities, we are analysing other ways of financing the group so we have alternatives before we [consider] another rights issue,""

Credit Suisse
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960029/british-airways-owner-iag-target-price-cut-to-reflect-increasing-rights-issue-risk-says-credit-suisse-960029.html

HSBC
"Lobbenberg [head of European transport equity research at HSBC] added that the timing of any potential capital raise by IAG could be linked to an announcement on reopening the US border, which is now expected in December"
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9980907/BA-owner-soon-raise-cash-shareholders.html

Goodbody
"Earlier this month, easyJet tapped investors for GBP1.2 billion in a fully underwritten rights issue ... Analysts at Goodbody and HSBC said they believed the British Airways parent would follow."
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1632125541714351000/press-iag-will-not-tap-investors-for-recovery-funds---sunday-times.aspx

Oh I'm pretty sure there will be many listening to all opinions, there will be some making very short term trades and profiting but also being very careful about real world comments from people who know what they are talking about. I never use stops or orders because they are abused by the traders that execute them, but I bet there is a healthy lot of orders set up just in case the RNS nuke is let off!!!

You're welcome.

"ive been kicked out of first a couple of times "

You need to learn how to hold your booze and treat the crew and fellow passengers with respect then. None of us like loutish passengers on a plane. I hope you eventually get a flight ban on all carriers, not just BA.

Now that one Benji boy, I have recorded for future reference;
"probably cost a few people quite a bit...
#Liability"

We will see soon enough.

Please, this is getting very embarrassing!

ANyway I pointed out yesterday SSP, my bellwether share for this sector, had turned positive and, as on most instances before, this has fed through to the travel sector and the sp are being marched up the hill again. The correlation between SSP and the travel sector on quite news days with a 24hr delay is really quite strong. I wonder if this is an algorithm shadow?

again! You're also supposed to be filtering me and ignoring me. All these constant references to me are beginning to make me blush. If you people don't want to know me then STOP REFERRING TO ME!

Meanwhile, should you all not be off to your new chat room where you can filter people out form the real world?

For future reference;

"""We have revolving credit facilities, we are analysing other ways of financing the group so we have alternatives before we [consider] another rights issue,""

Credit Suisse
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960029/british-airways-owner-iag-target-price-cut-to-reflect-increasing-rights-issue-risk-says-credit-suisse-960029.html

HSBC
"Lobbenberg [head of European transport equity research at HSBC] added that the timing of any potential capital raise by IAG could be linked to an announcement on reopening the US border, which is now expected in December"
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9980907/BA-owner-soon-raise-cash-shareholders.html

Goodbody
"Earlier this month, easyJet tapped investors for GBP1.2 billion in a fully underwritten rights issue ... Analysts at Goodbody and HSBC said they believed the British Airways parent would follow."
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1632125541714351000/press-iag-will-not-tap-investors-for-recovery-funds---sunday-times.aspx