Member Info for big-blue

From the graph over one year, it looks like the recovery from the 1st broker notes on RI and the week later 'non emergency tapping' statement and then the US news, has reversed and the same sp is heading back to the 'we don't know what is going on phase' over the week during no answer to the original broker notes. Today's 4th broker note is clearly compounding the fall. The share is clearly red flagged across the city judging by the broker notes. Whatever the financing package turns out to be, the city does not like the level of debt and is drawing on conclusions on how it is going to have to be addressed. Early Nov opening for the US is a positive but you're talking 3 weeks cash flow instead of end of month opening compared to the loss of summer and Autumn. I suppose the next possible uplift will be good news feel good vibes with all the school holiday travel and reports of EU trips going through the roof. Possibly that will be the best time to bury bad news, last week of October.

Plucky, being an old lag of these kind of boards, you get to see the occasional intense boiler ramp or deramp. You watch people getting sucked up in it and losing heavily. Pension pots being wiped out by what are essentially spreadbet groups who coordinate to try and make runs on a share. Typically the target is penny shares, or any share with no automatic trades as there if a ramp fest can get going where people get drawn in then the sp can be nudged until there is a runaway effect. There are often very strong indications that the boiler room crews have been given a nod and a wink from dodgy personalities that are involved with the penny stocks.

After sometime of seeing this, you tend to get to the point where you feel compelled to say something. The compulsion to intervene gets stronger. I have been in and out of IAG for most of the fist part of the year. I have been sitting waiting for the right time to jump back in ahead of the big opening of air travel and cash in on a super sp spike. But there has been persistent and deliberate ploys along the way which I call the sabotaging of the return to free travel. It means I have been waiting longer, and longer, and longer... Along the way I sought to enlighten and educate on topics that ultimately will have a significant impact on our freedom to travel. Points of view not found in the mainstream media. So I sit and wait and get involved in discussions and offer my point of view or answer obvious boiler room comments.
Now last month a very significant bit of news came out which was the very last thing any shareholder wanted to hear. But rather than acknowledge and discuss, a wave of hysterical denial swept this board and there was a campaign of posting absolute denial. I have felt compelled to respond to the denial. And as the denial gets louder and stronger form people that just can not face the truth put in front of them, so the response gets more and more absolute. Then I'm challenged, provide proof. So I do. And the denial and insults get worse and worse and people start filtering and ignoring and enter a most freabile state of panic trying to wish away a real world fact.

And so I continue to answer it ignoring the screaming. Maybe today with a new fourth broker referring to the dreaded RI, a degree of realisation and acceptance will descend on the hysterics. It will not go away. It must be faced.

Meanwhile I keep my Easy J on the basis the next takeover approach will be more than a stalking horse. And keep my eyes on IAG ready for a post dilution spike based on a recovery which I think will be far faster than many think. Some say 2024 for full recovery, some say 2023, I say back to full capacity by 2022. There are potential smash and grabs with IAG, although how I will interrupt BA being spun off or the other similar asset sales I have not decided. Should I plonk a load of cash in there to be in a position to take advantage of offers derived from the break up

Anybody hear the promotion on R4 this morning of a 'play' they are doing about the climategate email leaks? Did you notice the perfectly choreographed words indicating the whole thing was a found to be a 'conspiracy theory' and that inquires had cleared everyone involved. Utter total complete rubbish and complete propaganda. They played a segment which is supposed to be one of the data fiddlers giving a clear and concise reasoning of some of the accusations apparently to prove there is nothing for sceptics to go on.
It was laughable. The speech claiming every thermometer was showing temperature increases. Well, that is totally false as raw data not shredded when the scandal broke clearly shows variations around a mean, which is a fundamental part of the fraud to fiddle the numbers in the first place. Will this play explain why the Medieval warm period was removed from the data? Will it explain why the IPCC has quietly removed all references to the Mann et al hockey stick graph because in-house the graph, data, statistical methodology and extrapolations have all been thoroughly debunked? Will it explain the how the Mann et al paper was repeatedly rejected for publication by all the main journals because it was a pile of rubbish and how they had to have a system of referees involved with the research peer review their own work to get it into a publication so that it could then be put into the first IPCC and so begin the biggest fraud of our time?

This is Stalinist propaganda history revision of the first order. The BBC should actually lose it's license to broadcast for this kind of activity, but one thing is for sure. The play will not address the fundamental issues and there will be absolutely no cross-examination of the propaganda lies no matter how distinguished the calls are for the truth to start being broadcast.

Welcome to the brave new world of freedom of speech. One-sided soviet style of course.

err IAG, the % gain when Biden made the announcement was at best 1-1.5% on top of the existing trading which was itself based on the prenews release from the previous day. And the rise lasted less than 24 hours before the entire cumulative rise from leak to announcement being wiped out and reversing end of Monday. I had estimated just a week or two earlier that any spike form the announcement was going to be so diluted and short lived that there would be very little to gain from it. And so it came to pass.

So that makes it FOUR brokers referring to RI risk. Credit Suisse, HSBC, Goodbody and now Berenberg.

There has been no retraction, correction or update from the other 3 from September. A month later a fourth Broker note reiterates the red flag risk.

You can spit your insults out at me as I am sure you will and continue to pretend there is no such risk. But there is a consensus forming amongst people who are extremely well tuned into what decisions corporations have to make. My probability for a form of dilution increases to 75%, 15% for an RI involving retail investors, 25% RI iis only, 50% debt for equity, 75% a combination of rights and swaps. It is now just a matter of when. Wait for results, Feb? That is a long, long time for speculation on something so fundamental and will do a great deal of damage to sp and to the credit rating which will make matters worse and credit more expensive. So I will say within the month a clear plan will have to be laid out on the finances for the following 6 months.

Every insult has been thrown at me for maintaining an evidence based factual position. Today there is further confirmation that I am correct to consider the real world facts, not some rainbow rampers wet dream. The risk on this stock has just been increased by an order of magnitude. To those who ramped it to hell and back and are now watching the paper loss increase day by day, you deserve it for being such nasty foul mouthed horrible people.

KAMA!

Explanations for more falls?

Well, you all learned something today didn't you.

Now sleep on it and come back tomorrow nice, polite, rational people prepared to engage in debate and conversation.

Nice recovery,
Nice recovery,
Nice recovery,
Nice recovery,

lol on the sauce a bit early aren't we?

Look on the bright side, at least the spread is tight!

Ha, lol.. you need something to ramp..... lol

Blimey, 5% down...... ogh.

How' that making out in the ramp fest ego

Just popped in to see how well the sp is recovering. Oh dear. Perhaps the retail investor desertion is bigger than first thought. If mm is clearing out a load of orders, the sp shouldn't be nose diving further. Fundamentally, the promised reaction to the US news isn't happening. IAG is being pushed around with the rest of the market, and worse there is an accumulating margin on the drop right from the bell as pis dump. There is nothing to stay here for. The big news is done and there is no mega pile in from the iis, or anybody else for that matter.

I do feel sorry for all those innocent pis who got sucked into the ramp fest. You've seen what the boiler room crew do now, how they work together, how they draw you in to their 'team' and get you yourself ranting at the other side an making irrational investment decisions based on the group consensus.

And what happened to that poster yesterday apparently lamenting selling because he was unduly influenced by my 'team'. If it was a genuine investor, hey - YOU'RE WELCOME!

I'm not troubled by anything you say Nav - no inner conflict at all. Chicken is rather good.

Anyway, I've got chicken to munch on and work to do.

Twist it as you wish, everybody here can read it for themselves and then read how you want them to read it and people will put the whole picture in perspective. You actually do them a great service trying to invent a new narrative out of thin air. It actually helps underline and clarify everything.

Navis. I can't help you. Your reinterpretation of the CEOs comment sounds more like wishful thinking. What he said is very clear and not open to interpretation no matter how much you wish it. There is no reference to finding something 'better' and no such thing can be implied.

As clever as you think you are trying to present yourself,
"I was hoping BB could either correct me or say he agrees with me so that we can see his viewpoint."
A little quip that puts a rather different slant on the context. Playing the innocent. And I certainly don't take anything personally. Another false lead invented to try and give some sort of justification to ignoring the plain basic referenced truth given here for all to see. Go word play it as you see fit. Banter with Benji boy about how terribly unfair you have been treated.

get that chicken in the frier KFC, daddy's coming for his lunch!!!

You have have been corrected. If you want to try and make it sound like there is some sort of confusion over how to read
"""We have revolving credit facilities, we are analysing other ways of financing the group so we have alternatives before we [consider] another rights issue,""
then you are simply going to fail. You people have truly reached the bottom of the barrell now haven't you. Actually looking to sow seeds of confusion into what is a rather plain and simple phrase to understand.

And you say I am the one with an agenda.

offered to the RI.
offered to the Retail Investor.... to much shorthand....

Navis, CEO did not said they have other alternatives, he said they are analysing other ways so that they then have alternatives to a rights issue. I believe that will be a swap, debt for equity rather than a RI and if there were to be a RI I don't think it will be offered to the RI. This is a divvie paying company and therefore pension funds will not want to see the percentage of div payments allowed to increase further to retail investors, they will want to keep the divvies paid to the pensions.

"..no l still don't see your point BB.. what you say makes no sense to me and looks like deramping..."

Like I said earlier, should have gone to specsavers.

And if you seriously think after the brokers saying IAG needed a RI that IAG could continue to say absolutely nothing following intense city speculation;

Like there was no precedent;
IAG looking to raise €2.75 billion from shareholders - Head for ...https://www.headforpoints.com › iag-rights-issue
26 Jul 2020 — British Airawys parent IAG was forced to issue a statement on Friday after press speculation over a €2.75 billion rights issue to

Yeah, last time they were forced to say something in exactly the same way they had to again, and it took a whole week this time!!!!!!

So, please post, with references, the conclusion of the financial review looking for alternatives to avoid a RI. Which alternative has been deployed? And again, you keep the focus firmly on a RI to ensure the wider options resulting in dilution are not on people's mind. Hey, I don't think there will be a RI, but I do think there is a dilution on the way again. Until there is an update on the review to the market, nothing has changed. Variables within different scenarios are now revealed, but the consequences on the review and impact on probabilities for further dilution is a red flag unknown.

Think I'll do a bargain bucket for lunch....