Member Info for big-blue

Benji boy, what are you talking about? Analysts [brokers] get private briefings where much information about a companies finances are revealed so that professional recommendations to institutions can be made.

You said "it is clear that they have no more information than the rest of the market". That is 100% incorrect. Absolutely 100% incorrect. They have MUCH MORE information then the rest of us. And you know exactly how many brokers made references to an RI and the probability. You have simply succeeded in making yourself look even more stupid by trying to reduce the number. It will be interesting to see how they react to BAs funding option of credit lines rather dilution.

Meanwhile, stay with your crayons and retrospective share predictions and leave the pi analysis to people who know what they are talking about.

oh dear benji boy. Go and look up the position brokers occupy and the private breifings then get in the stock exchange disclosure rules. I posted it a while ago. Stop trying to sound like you know what you're talking about, you're just making an idiot of yourself.

copper invests in mining - and then makes out he is a successful investor. Nobody investing in the money pit of mining ever makes money unless they are very well informed from the inside. ANybody here will know that. You are fake con man cooper, it takes just a couple of posts for you to be outed. Fraud, fake, con man, cheat, charlatan, the lot all rolled into one.

I only repeated what others said, you show me one single post anywhere BEFORE the three brokers where I ever raised the idea of an RI. So you are a con man trying to misdirect people along a bare faced lie. That is you copper boy. A con man looking to fool people because you can't take it that you are a bottom feeder and will always be there. You have no insight or ability to read the market or the corporate landscape. There was no major sp rise for any of the recent big headline stories and you and your boiler room are gutted that you called it wrong for the great get rich quick escapade whilst a few of us could see there was no big pay day and that is exactly what has happened. You know how much I have got it right, you know what I am predicting next and it scares you ****le..ss because you are a failure and your post shows YOU KNOW IT.

sundenza is back on his 200 rainbow ramp fest. I'm not going to go for IAG results smash and grab. This financial review has been released ahead of results. There is a comment,
" IAG will update investors and analysts in its third quarter results announcement on 5 November."
I like the reference to 'analysts' bit. For those with their heads buried in the sand, they are brokers who will have much more intimate information than the rest of the market.
I'm expecting pretty bad news. Income will have taken a significant hit. This loan facility is only for BA, IAG can't transfer it to prop up ailing airlines elsewhere in the group. It is too risky still.

I am freeing some large funds though, I think the Easy J takeover window is opening up. They've got final results up on the 30th Nov so I think if there is going to be a move, then that might be the time. There are some interesting moves afoot with Stelios looking to set up a new EU budget operator and the persistent rumours it is being pumped up for a takeover or merger. IAG v Easy Jet. I think IAG is just way to over exposed credit wise whilst Easy J milked the investors with no need to pay off later. I think the shareholder reward will be a rather large jump on takeover. Quantas perhaps???????? IAG is saddled with ever burgeoning debt. The credit extension and the wing and a prayer hope that revenue is going to cover everything whilst all the other airlines are raising cash with more shares I think is a mistake. Sountil February, I think there isn't much scope for any smash and grabs. My money stays with Easy J in the airline sector, indeed I'll add significantly. But I will keep a beady eye on IAG in case there is the prospect of BA being spun off......

"Quite a lot of businesses who took out CCFF loans "just in case", didn't use them and paid them back."

How do you pay back a loan you don't use? This isn't some sort of overdraft extension and I doubt government civil servants are going to waste their time setting up billion loans, just on the off chance it might be needed. Be real about it. BA has chosen debt over dilution to fund the recovery phase. Factor it in to your investment decisions.

"so if we went back into lockdown they need to scramble about/go bust?"

errmmmm... as so many keep pointing out, they have 10 bill liquidity, they would hardly be on the very of going bust the moment a lockdown is called. Furthermore, the financial review could have concluded saying that the option to take the government backed loan was the solution should x, y or z circumstances dictate. It is quite a different scenario to setup the loan which probably cost a good half million in fees and costs to put in place - consultants and lawyers aren't cheap in these deals.
It is great news that dilution threat has been removed for the moment, maybe if the revenue is substantial it has been removed altogether. But very simply, you don't set up a billion credit line if you aren't going to draw on it. The city has taken it as a read it will be drawn down and will go on the liabilities. Whether it is drawn down next week, month or quarter, if it wasn't needed it wouldn't have been setup. Once the financial review had done its work, the various solutions for the various situations are there ready and waiting for immediate action, that's the point of war gaming. With the opening up, US travel dates, budget and consensus moving to living with a virus rather than attempting to control it [totally impossible] the financial solution has been put into action. If it wasn't needed, there would be no need to set it up. There is plenty of cash in the coffers to manage even slowly evolving circumstances over a couple of weeks. That's how I look at.

Prudence? Dear, let me just ring my business bank and ask for a 'prudent' billion just in case. It doesn't go on the liabilities list until drawn on. But it is nevertheless an indication that the numbers are not balancing well on the books if you need to be a billion quid prudent! I personally don't consider running a company needing such massive back up credit best practice. BA decided to go down the extended credit route, rather than raising money form institutions or shareholders. The wisdom of that move will be seen in the fullness of time. But I am thinking more that that facility is going to be the sticky plaster over the hemorrhaging costs wound in the results. And the market response seems to bear that out.

groots, it is new debt, it was only announced 9:30 this morning. The other 2 bill UK export loan has been spent. It is a lot of money to have as backup, I have to ask myself why they need to make such an arrangement now when everything is opening up and going hunky dory. It indicates to me that the results are going to be pretty poor with revenue well below par, but they will be able to say everything is tickety boo because they have secured a billion form the magic money tree.

Nobody said anything about Ryanair and insolvency. No idea why you would say that. O'Leary said on R4 this morning they were having to start discounting seats to fill the planes but that the difference between the reductions and operating cost reductions meant they were still around 20% up in profit terms. The opening up from lockdown has had consequences for a lot of industries. Pan globally there has been a weird glut of truck drivers, on all continents for some bizarres reason. People are out of the habit of spending hundreds on eating out, and have learned to use the cooker during lockdown and discovered they can save enough to actual give up work!!!! People are out of the habit of jumping on a flying bus for drinks in Vienna or to buy a bespoke new briefcase from Marrakech or go to a concert in Milan or buy a decent bottle of port from Lisbon. O'Leary recognises he needs to lure people back in, and against the climate change being 'responsible' crap. He was making a strong point about the new planes being 16% more efficient than the last ones for example. How will IAG respond to the market? Try and extract just a little too much money and lose the business, or play it smart and shadow O'Leary in prices like they have done before?

Anyway, need to look carefully at the 360 to see if there is a potential few percent on Friday. looks like the sp decline will continue in to the week, already slipped below 1% gain on the day a RI was removed from an immediate possibility to a longer term remote possibility.

Nothing misleading at all. Until this morning nobody new what the financial review would be. Significant voices in the city had given their opinion and that was enough for me to keep out. The current new credit option does remove the need to raise money from selling new shares. That doesn't change the fact the loans to repay increases from 2bill to 3bill. It doesn't change the question, if things are going so fantastically well as people post on here, why the need for another 1 bill credit? And then there is the paying back. We all hope IAG and especially BA is amazingly profitable that revenue alone is enough to cover debts. But that remains to be seen hence dilution risk drops to 5% now. Against that, Ryanair said this morning they are having to discount seat prices to fill aeroplanes. The effects of all the remaining testing costs and hassel seems to be continuing to have an impact. Therefore, I am still a little cautious. And the sp has only managed 1.6% bump up on this news. If Ryanair are struggling to fill aeroplanes, then how well will the rest of the IAG airlines be doing? The dilution risk has been significantly reduced, in the near term at least, but the debt mountain has been added to. And before people start quoting the bit about it will only be drawn down if needed, you don't take out a billion loan if you are not going to use it. Forward operations look like they need a billions worth of cover, maybe up to Q3 next year, that' is a guess. The revenue everybody is trumpeting over the last few weeks doesn't seem to exist.

Green boxes, Monday is import export day for me and have a lot of orders, lots and lots of lovely money.

So IAG got money out of the UK Export scheme for BA. It's a good chunk of money and certainly takes the 'emergency' out of the financing. Notably the RNS makes a point that the last loan has been drawn down. I'm confused as to why this didn't make a reference in the budget as an example as to how the government was backing business. It is of course welcome news in the most part. It does mean a dilution risk is very much on the back burner. Not sure I'm convinced this is still an investment opportunity from a smash and grab spike point of view. The market seem to be giving it a cautious thumbs up.

So the question is, pile in now hoping for enough good results to grab maybe a 2% gain on the 5th? It looks like the probability of dilution drops on the 5th drops from 95% to 5%. If the recovery is fast and BA is not elbowed out by competition then it looks OK for mid term holders, and the attack on airlines by the environmentalists is very definitely receding. The hysterics have completely overplayed their hand with talk of a planet about to implode and millions dying now form buring planets and submerged islands and the rest of the crap. Just watch your backs re Europe, with covid out of the way, that is starting to kick of in earnest. Listen carefully to the extreme language from the French at the moment. There are many in powerful positions all across the EU and commission that with to destroy UK for Brexit.

So dilution risk put to bed now. Medium risk business now. I will have to look at the options re Q3 results and whether to risk a small smash and grab. It is not plain sailing form here, but the waters are a lot less choppy.

It's fascinating isn't it. If it had been kept corporate and business like, all sorts of draconian measures could have been shuffled onto the agenda and passed without any object. But as the hysteria has been amplified, there are some signals that it has gone a bit too far and some are putting some distance between themselves and the hysterical cult rantings. I did say I was watching this very very closely ready to bail.

Old saying, you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time. It is still very worrying that the leaders we would normally assume to be pragmatic and keep things in proportion happen to the zealots, Biden, Boris, EU. There is still a huge amount of damage being done here in the industrialised world and there is very long way to go to unravel decades of accumulating madness. But with luck some degree of common sense will be brought to this by the 'developing' countries. But don't hold your breath. This is a full on cult with totally mass media support.

Remember, the inscetous madness of the hysterical climate change cop26 begins next week. Good time to bury bad news.

I note it is falling apart. With in the western propaganda bubble many have convinced themselves that the controlled one-sided con that is climate change has been taken onboard by the plebs and it is an open road to the marxist doctrine to be imposed on the world and a regression to soviet style control can be imposed. But the rest of the world outside the bubble ain't buying it. Indeed, it looks like there will hardly be any substance in the do or die agreement. The doomsayers have way overplayed their hand. How many of you actually believe half the things you are being told? Yeah, something just doesn't add up with what is being sold to us. It is looking like this is going to be one huge massive embarrassment, not just for Scotland, not just for Boris, but for the whole climate change money grabbing troughing lie. I see seams starting to pull apart in one two stitches. Beginning of the end????

I think the fat lady may be singing this week.

Oh don't be so ridiculous Benj boy, pure wishful thinking again. You have no idea what is in the Q3 results so can not possibly make such a crass assumption. It might not be until the finals next Feb that a fund raise, swaps or RI or other, is made. Berenberg were predicting early 2022. Your spreadbet is sunk, you're off tot he work house and you've only got yourself to blame.

copper, you are Wrong. I copied and pasted directly from the LSE page of broker recommendations. I can only guess your panic response is because I hit the nail very squarely on the head noting there is an organised ramping boiler room here and that it is connected to spread betting.

Everybody can check it for themselves, the update was on 19th October and it was merely a reiteration, a follow up on a previous note that we are told by other boiler room contributors brokers never, ever do, never follow up there own notes - ever, ever.

19-Oct-21 International Airlines (IAG) Buy - - Reiteration

19th October, not 29th September.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/broker-ratings/brokers/deutsche-bank.html

It is very obvious now there is a spreadbet syndicate working boards trying to get buyers to pile in. It is too late, the spike was busted weeks ago. Those engaged have been fooled into believing if they work the boards, they will make an impact. They won't. Was it 2% commission of 3%??? You've been had, like so many others. It doesn't matter what tactic you use, there is always going to be somebody around to burst the bubble. Put it down to experience and don't let yourself be drawn into get rich quick schemes again.

19-Oct-21 International Airlines (IAG) Buy - - Reiteration

19th October, not 29th September.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/broker-ratings/brokers/deutsche-bank.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/broker-ratings/brokers/deutsche-bank.html

No, 19th October

around 230 target. There is a reason why I never take notice of the price targets. The comments accompanying are of great interest, especially when multiple brokers come out with the same eyebrow raising comment. Did Deutsche say all concern about any form of dilution should be ruled out now? Or words to that effect? How have they responded to the comments of four other brokers? What is their expectation on how the financial structure will look going forward?