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Indeed. It's a place to debate the share price. Is it a buy, is it a sell? Who knows? That's what we're here to discuss / find out.
It goes without saying that people will have different opinions to you, but why would anyone let that upset them so much?
Not ´glass half full´, I am long plenty of things, but genuinely perplexed as to why RYA is being valued so highly in a sector that really does not look good at the moment, with recovery looking further away each day.
As for hedging strategies, it's probably too late to book in some bargains for the airlines as prices have already risen significantly.
There is talk of a squeeze on oil at some point, because a lot of production capacity was lost or shut down this year, leaving the market vulnerable to spikes and growth in demand from Asia.
Refineries will be minimising their jet production as much as possible (mainly pushing it towards diesel - I did notice the other day that the diesel in my station did smell a bit more 'keroseney' than usual.....)
But jet fuel has been in contango for ages now, meaning that there is ALOT stored around the world which will come out as soon as demand picks up. So I think any squeeze would be limited.
If it were my airline I would hold tight and not hedge, or hedge very little. Besides, the airlines don't know how much they will fly in 2021 yet, so difficult to know how much to hedge.
Either airlines / countries make vaccination mandatory (difficult to implement) or they have to keep demanding negative test results.
Because even if 60% of the population take the vaccine by next summer (and that's being optimistic), 40% will still potentially have COVID, so tests will still be happening, and they are anything from 80 to 150GBP each. SO a family of 4 is looking at 600GBP EACH WAY......
Suddenly a UK break looks more appealing....
Except there is a personal cost involved in vaccines, masks and testing that wasn't there for 9/11.
OK, but then in your opinion, was the share chronically undervalued last year? And why would that be the case?
Just as a reminder, last year they were flying a very busy schedule with full planes.
2021 will never get close to 2019, whether for flight numbers or load factor.
Restrictions will severely limit flying right through to Easter, vaccine or not.
And then with masks and vaccine certificate requirements, flying will be much less attractive than before.
Don't be silly, and suggesting that I'm suicidal is quite frankly insulting. Your constant tirades against Doug are also ridiculous and clog up the board.
Maybe you could add something constructive and interesting as to why one would go long Ryanair at this level (50% higher than last summer)
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A bit surprised that Ryan and Easy aren't plummeting this morning.
Bit by bit we are learning not only that the ski season is not happening until Feb/March at best, that CV infection rates are stubbornly high (and often climbing) throughout Europe, and now that Britons cannot freely travel into the EU.
Where's the good news?
Oh yeah, Ryan will soon start using the Max again, otherwise known as the Flying Coffin.
Yes 2019.
I tend to think the market couldn´t have been so totally wrong for all of Summer 19 and that the vaccine exuberance has pushed the SP up to a level which is simply not justified given how difficult (and unpleasant) it will be to fly for at least 1st half 2021
Looking to book flights for myself and my daughters anytime in 2021 up to the Spring, and really finding very little.
Flight schedules across Europe seem to be non existent in January, skeleton in February and at least 50% down in March.
Even next summer, it's hard to see how we could be back to 'normal'.
And yet the SP is at record highs. Was it seriously undervalued last summer, or seriously overvalued now?
So it seems a cruise ship has left Genoa at about 25% capacity; https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/20/cruise-ship-20-setting-sail-into-the-new-normal-photo-essay
Personally I could never see myself on a cruise, lots of old, boring, overweight people incapable of working out how to visit a city on their own, but under these new conditions (masks, constant painful testing, everything shut 6 times a day for disinfecting), why on earth would you bother?
Even though lockdown is due to end in the UK in early Dec, flight schedules seem incredibly limited still. Looking to get from Mallorca to any London airport in Dec and it's extremely difficult and expensive. Hardly any flights at all, and I would have to stay a full week. Crazy.
The market was expecting this type of loss. The 3% down is consistent with the rest of the market being down.
The key takeaway here is the big boom in booking enquiries once the vaccine was announced. People are gagging to get away.
But patience is a virtue here, as we are still going to be a long way off normal well into Feb/March, so could be more painful days to come.
Last summer when Easyjet was doing quite nicely with full schedules it was in the 9 pound area. So it's hard to see how the SP could break through that level anytime soon.
They have suffered immensely in 2020 and even assuming passenger numbers return to 'normal' some time in 2021, that pain has to heal.....debt payments, redundancy payments, cash drawdown, hedging losses, rehiring costs, etc. etc. don't come cheap.
Quite right John.
Much has been made of the fact that Ryanair own more planes than Easyjet, but a plane is a depreciating asset, i.e. constantly losing value. I personally do not know the terms and details of the leasing that Easyjet has, but it's not necessarily such a bad move....no depreciation and keeps capital from being tied up. Also allows easier switching to more modern planes.
I would think a mixture of owning and leasing is the best way to go.
Of course fuel costs are low, that is evident. The question for airlines now is, do they hedge for 2021?
Nothing in life is certain at the moment, and nothing guarantees cheap fuel next year. (Indeed it has risen over 20% in a week or so).
So to hedge or not to hedge. That is the question.
Interesting points, and also don't forget that the vaccine needs to be transported and kept at -70'C.
I would be buying refrigerated vehicle companies and liquid nitrogen suppliers.....
I guess the rationale was that Easyjet, etc. would fail and Ryan would survive to clean up the slots and demand post COVID.
Now that there is light at the end of the tunnel, one would expect closer parity for Easy and Ryan. I do think Easy is under and Ryan is over valued.
In any case, the whole boost up is overdone IMO. Record cases in the US, and as you say getting the virus injected into people will take time and money.
..personal spat nonsense.
Maybe you lot could start your own FB page and have it on there, and leave this one to intelligent SP discussion.
Nice to have a traffic light system.
Shame just about every light is red......!
Up 4%. Impressive.
It's almost as if we were all flying around again.....
SOunds a long way off to me. Simplistic article too; kerosene is only 'significantly cheaper than gasoline' because it isn't taxed. The actual product prices bounce around but are usually quite similar.
Jet fuel has a far higher energy density than hydrogen, hence the need for strong, heavy tanks to hold the compressed hydrogen. And don't get me started on the infrastructure to achieve all this....
More likely to see some kind of battery powered flight before 2035.....