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Panda,

The deal may not bring any upfront cash but it does bring $25m to spend on a phase III trial. So Immupharma becomes an AIM bio with a fully funded phase III asset and a partner with the expertise to secure FDA approval and take the drug to market. Not a common occurrence on AIM!!

As I said, almost impossible to recover from a failed phase III so if I were a LTH here I'd be very happy with the deal. Anyway will leave you to it, good luck all.

Panda,

I'm no longer invested here so have no axe to grind either way but I completely disagree. I think your post seriously underestimates just how difficult it is for a baby bio to even take a drug to phase III, let alone keep it alive following failure of that trial. It's astonishing that Immupharma have managed to not only secure a deal but somehow also retain European and ROW rights with Avion funding the full costs of the phase III trial.

It was a struggle to raise funds for the first phase III and it's highly unlikely with a failed trial under their belt that they would even have been able to raise sufficient funds to run another. If they had, the dilution would have been horrendous and it's doubtful that they would have been able to raise sufficient to do justice to Lupuzor - a trial run on a shoestring is no good to anybody.

I have no idea how they have pulled it off but this is a fantastic deal for Immupharma. IMO of course.

Wow - have to admit I've lost touch with what's been going on here and thought there was no way back for Lupuzor. That's a cracking deal for Immupharma - well done to all LTHs here who managed to keep the faith.

No it can't Ray - you can't sell an unapproved drug whether it's the original patented version or a generic version. The original needs marketing approval and the generic also needs approval from the EMA/FDA to ensure it performs as well as the original.

Ray,

Thanks for the link - good to know.

AFAIK the ImmunoBody DNA patent expires in March 2027. According to your link SPC must be applied for within 6 months of receiving marketing authorisation and the patent must be in force at the time of application. I'm not sure it's possible for either SCIB1 or SCIB2 to get to that stage by March 2027.

Having said that, I'm sure there are plenty of other ways of extending the patent life of a product.

Having said that, I assume are plenty of other ways to extend the patent life.

NOM,

.............but they don't actually have to have the cash in the bank to last 12 months, just a credible plan that stands up to scrutiny from the auditors to ensure the company is able to operate for the following 12 months? So perhaps I'm missing something but my question still stands, why would you suggest there could be any issue?

Nom,

No I wasn't and thanks for the link. To save me from trawling through, can you just explain what has changed that would lead you to post that there is even the most remote possibility of the auditors having any issue with signing off the accounts as a going concern.

What concerns could they have with a company that is debt free, has a proven track record of raising finance when required, has never had to resort to the issue of warrants or to death spiral fundings ? Because if they have an issue with Scancell then God help half of the rest of AIM.

Most likely they'll try to get Modi1 trial up and running and then raise on the back of (hopefully) improved sentiment in the following weeks/months. IMO of course.

Nom - not sure why you raised the prospect of auditors having any issue with signing off accounts as going concern? There is nothing whatsoever to suggest that is a possibility.

Ruck, no definitely not enough to get to 2021 IMO. Actually if you listen again to the answers to the question on funding at the AGM (about 58 minutes in on the recording), John Chiplin immediately said they had a cash runway through to 2021 and then I got the impression that CH was trying to pull that back a bit and qualified JC's statement by saying they should have enough to get to the end of 2020 and only potentially to 2021.

ignore last para - I can't be bothered to finish it lol!

Ruck,

I've been having a look at the financials too and also exactly what was said at the AGM regarding funding. A couple of extra points re. your calculations:-

1) I don't think your figures take into account R&D tax credits totalling approx. £1.8m. The R&D tax credit for the tax year 2017/8 was just under £744k and wasn't received until May 2019 (after y/e) and a further £1.09m is due for the tax year 2018/9. I'm no expert but would assume that these amounts would need to be added to the cash at bank figure of £4.56m used in your calculations.

2) I believe payment for SCIB1 manufacture was included in last year's accounts. This is a significant one off payment - I don't know the exact figure but I checked with RG back in 2016 and he confirmed that it was between £500k and £1m. That obviously will impact on the monthly cash burn in your post.

3) I know that the above may be offset by the fact that Scancell now have to pay Modi1 manufacture costs but there is a note in the 2019 Annual Report re. prepaid expenditure on Modi1 manufacture that won't be expensed until the 2019/20 financial year.

So for above reasons, I think your calculations might be overly pessimistic and I'd probably go with the figure Trinity Delta gave for the cash position at the end of April 2020 - from memory that was around £3.3m. More than enough to start the Modi1 trial but probably not enough to get to 2021.

By the way, I think we all know that sooner or later Scancell will need more cash and

Is your 16.23 post addressed to me?

............on the face of it, some of the assumptions he has made are contradictory. I was going to go on and try to understand where he was coming from and point this out but you decided to jump in with your bizarre 15.50 post.

Still would like you to explain how I was changing or twisting anything.

Inanaco,

These personal attacks are becoming very tiresome. I asked Ruck a simple question - I have not changed or twisted anything. Two days ago Ruck was discussing his 25p SP projection for Scancell and he based that on a series of assumptions. Today he made reference to his projection and I just wanted to make sure that he was talking about the same projection and set of assumptions before I answered.

I was going to go on to ask him why he had included royalty payments in his assumptions if he had discounted the chance of any deals.

Can you explain to me how that is changing what has been written to suit?

Ruck,

When you say you have discounted deals from your projections, are you talking about the SP projections you were discussing the other day?

Sorry Ray but I'm not sure I agree.

Firstly Scancell was the best performing stock on AIM in 2012 and any fund manager worth his salt should have heard of them so I don't buy the excuse that institutions won't be aware of them. Moreover, it's the CEO's job to get out there and make sure they are aware and to persuade them that it is worth the effort of carrying out the research.

I accept that funding is never easy but it has become more plentiful with the UK bio sector raising record amounts over recent years. Yet despite the promise of the IP, Scancell has struggled to attract new II's. The ill fated foray to the US being a good example.

The lack of interest may play into the hands of retail investors who are able to buy at low prices but at a cost to long term holders of significant dilution. The bulk of retail investors are simply buying on the open market - their money isn't going to Scancell to fund the pipeline and they simply can't fulfil Scancell's funding needs.

Scancell need to attract more II investment if they are to develop the pipeline and get the data they need to secure those deals. IMO of course.

Ivy,

Do you not think the real issue is the lack of institutional investors rather than the need for retail investors? Even 'heavy hitters' aren't going to meet Scancell's needs either in the short or medium term.

We often discuss lack of commercial deals on both bbs but IMO, lack of institutional investment has had just as much of an impact on Scancell. Vulpes is a good start but let's hope that others now follow.

Yes indeed, nice post FTSEBUYER and perhaps a timely reminder of what it's all really about.

FTSEBUYER,,

Scancell monitored each of the patients from the original trial for 2 years after they had completed treatment. That 2 year follow-up period ended in Feb 2018 for the final patient at which point Scancell stopped all follow- up. So we won't be getting any further updates on the patients from the original trial.

Looks like Marigold no longer exists. Create new account, make an ill-informed post designed to create uncertainty and make a quick exit. Job done.