Member Info for belgrano

Also being National psoriasis day, on the 29th Oct, gives them the opportunity to really fire in some great advertising in the interim, plenty of fanfare.

Yep 29th Oct, has to be a soft launch as pre-registrations well outnumber product availability, suspect apart from being launched on a "historic day", gives them time to react to to huge surge of interest from the US following the product endorsement by NPF.
They will have time in the interim (and I'd bet the mother in law...you wouldn't want her anyway ), to increase production of the treatment to enable an accelerated supply program once initial launch completed.

yep, i just got same quotes..all at 66p buy or sell. they will take 50k as well.

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know what happened to poster Ted, seems all his history of posts disappeared as well. Was here all the time then gone.

Decent positions being taken today by some big players along with another 200K delayed buy from yesterday close. Very good to see rises backed by decent volume over the last few days for reasons discussed recently. A good investor friend asked me this morning what do they intend to do with all the money they are likely bring in. I replied probably finance more studies /trials, but he replied that they have enough for that already, and any major pharma trials would more likely be backed by a pharma anyway. Return to investors after company expansion requirements was discussed...certainly one to think about, and the slide rule figs are real sweet.
Fill yer boots guys, I was very greedy last Thur/Fri

I think its how much product is available for launch, think we are very close indeed to that date. Many pointers back that up. Know Stuart would prefer a soft start and he's the boss. Clearly logistics have to be running smoothly. but for delivery and subscriptions that's not an insurmountable issue. I'd be chuffed with 10K by Christmas.

Fair point AquaeS,
I find its easy to post something only to find its been genuinely misinterpreted, and sometimes this does lead to some misapprehension thats its disruptive or a dig. Think its because it seems where's there's money involved it can lead to deliberate attempts to smear or ridicule, and I've seen some awful paid boiler room scammers in my years. Unfortunately sometimes we all take a more defensive approach when in fact its pretty genuine. Other times its trick questions where as there is no right answer like the classic...Judge to defendant..."Do you still beat your wife" .
Think in your case its pretty genuine and you find that Elrico does share all his material with everyone after a few days anyway. (Likes to be known as Eric), No harm done either way I think.

you are correct AquaeS with your post.
I am a member of NPF, however can I respectfully suggest that anyone wanting to see it actually join Elricos small band of merry investors, and you'll have that info this morning. He's not actually making a bean out of it, as I know he works for many hrs to obtain loads of very in depth useful information on a discrete handful of companies not a coverall overview like some do. Yep can be accused of ramping here, and for years I was also against any "paywall" type activity, but you will actually find that its indeed peanuts, of which a load actually goes to British charities. Another example is the hrs spent trying to arrange informal investor meets like one planned in Manchester in a couple of weeks, over a pint or three.
That way we level the playing field with the institutions, look the CEO in the eye, and ask whatever you wish, not just whats been released by carefully worded and checked documentation. I was the same as many here against it, but I've completely changed my mind now having seen both sides of the coin.

Sorry mate, I'm withdrawing my kind offer. I can see from all your posting history that all you do is criticize others and give nothing, and I'm sorry I actually got sucked into replying to a troll.
One of their objectives is to annoy, or silence reasonable debate on the boards and your reply fits that criteria exactly. So if walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck......
I try to be nice to everyone here and working together we can gain advantage over some of the big institutions at times. I also get quite a bit of thanks for my posts, which is the opposite of your reply. Wish you all the best sir, but DYOR.

Sometimes you have to have a little faith and not be swift to accuse investors of "ramping", when all they have done is a lot more research than yourself. I do have that actual link but will not post it. Especially now I've researched your posting history Bubs, and you've contributed extremely little to this forum and criticized often. Its oh so easy to extract one snippet from a long message and use it to try and rubbish the whole post. Clearly the factual matter of it's existence which has been confirmed already by two independent reports here is enough for you.
However if it is not, please send me a private throwaway e-mail, and I'll mail it to you directly on condition its not publicly aired and that you contribute £30 to the salvation army as a charitable donation... Fair enough????

Think you've joined the dots TT. Think someone else has as well as it looks like a whopping 525,794 buy at 67.18 after hrs, but not shown on LSE.
Could be a wild day tomorrow.
Know NPF advertising has started endorsing our products. You wouldn't advertise unless product practically ready to roll.
We know through the grapevine those expressing interest in product, exceeded 50K a while back. Heard from another investor who does not post on this forum that US interest in buying is also very heavy indeed.
Now the pictures are revealed...and I like what I see. So hold them golden tickets..we have lift off.

Yep, good to see sheephatch.
Pretty sure final positions are being taken before launch, which ties with your post. Many investors often have a core holding plus a bit on the side. (Lucky sods), this is often used for trading/ float or shorter time span investments rather than multiple years.
Its not hard to see if looking through any portfolio " what's most likely to bring me the best returns in 12 months at minimal risk", rather than the 2:45 at Kempton races. Quite a few good companies out there, but here there is an independent double chance of a multi bag in less than 12 months, starting in just a couple of days with this one.
Grab those golden tickets while you can, and as always DYOR.

Think over the weekend we got a little side tracked talking about other potential opportunities, but feel it pretty important to keep our eyes firmly on the prize, and the 5 pillars that SBTX is concentrating on.
Was great towards the end of last week to see everyone's contributions to the posts and even TT, started getting interested in royalties when I think a lot of us had to sharply upgrade our royalty expectations.
We saw just how much one 20T batch could produce, now we know Croda was investing 5M in a dedicated production line, this is because they want to churn our products out week in week out 24/7.
Indeed we know 25K subs for psoriasis will rake in circa 12M, I'd wager royalties could be higher than that once things are really rolling.
https://www.skinbiotherapeutics.com/sectors/
Certainly I believe quite a few investors read these posts and have looking at the trading action over the past few sessions have upgraded the potential here by quite a bit. All we are seeing is that reaction now.
Lastly must talk about the all important timeline, with OPTI we had good products and deals with other companies that because we were at their mercy so to speak had to suffer years before royalties started to even get warmed up which is the kiss of death to any share price. Things are completely different here.
We know that the psoriasis treatment being manufactured by Winclove will be available last quarter this year, which actually starts in a few days. Stuart never likes to let anyone down, and actually makes a very firm point about it. I believe the company has build some slippage into this timeline in view of the current worldwide issues with supply, COVID, parts, regulation and distribution. However at the last interview he affirmed that "things are firmly on track and to plan". I believe subscriptions will indeed start very soon indeed. So the all important timeline means we don't have long to wait at all.
Many traders and investors know this, and the buyers today are indicative of positions being retaken, (yep know many sold not because they didn't like the products or company, but saw a chance of buying back cheaper). This window has now closed.

Hi AquaeS,
Think you may have gone off on a little tangent. Shampooheads as a company ceased trading.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07084364
Yes they were backed for a while by a "dragon" that is correct.
From the study it was found that the treatment did ease up a lot of other skin conditions just like dandruff, however they were secondary benefits, it was fully recognised that with further bacterial modifications more condition targeted opportunities and even potentially better results lie begging for development with further studies to be conducted.

I think we all have to be realistic in just how much can be achieved with Stuart and his very small team. Opportunities like Sederma are brilliant as it does tie up critical manpower once agreements concluded as they do all the heavy lifting.
My thought process is fairly clear in directionally what way the company should develop, and its psoriasis working with the mighty US national associations, and Croda....Actually by all means patent/protect the rest, and build long term company value and possible future expansion routes...but I very much doubt SBTX in their current form will be doing it.
By just doing and expanding those two routed first outlined, will result in a queue of multinationals wanting the whole pie.
One things for sure, its not going cheaply.

I do believe there has been an upward re appraisal of this stock over the last few days, prompted by some of the excellent discussions and contributions by the investors here. In my book the touch paper has already been firmly lit.

Well researched TT many thanks,
Certainly galvanises my attention, when all they have to do is put into their current range which sells literally tons of cream, and royalties come rolling out as you explain. My previous price expectations were only really calculated on psoriasis deals, however once we include Croda deals it can double them, with no other outlay or advertising at all. Also time scale is really close which certainly spices things up a lot.

Well you know I like to get out the old slide rule a bit, as this is income that's purley on royalties.
So £10 or 10p- lets say a very conservative £1 per sale or pot. Be it sold for £20 or £120
Well looking at the creams and potions the boss has 50ml is fairly common so lets go with that one, and say our product comprises a whopping tenth of that.
Also another known, we know they are producing a 20T batch ref RNS, for the potions (not 20,000 ton ....lol) This is the first big batch.
So going by that 1 ltr fills 200 pots.
1000 ltrs in a ton, so 200 X 1000 X 20(tons) = 4M pots. .... or 4million quid
eeerrrr don't they sell a lot more than that, and isn't £1 far too little per pot, errr I forgot about the smaller batches already done as well??? and this is just the first batch..and SBTX do...nothing.
Not a bad deal at all....in fact Blo..y Brilliant.
Thats extra to the psoraisis deal, and what Elrico has been talking about.

Sry that might not display, my bad.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/754/66754/original.pdf
So sales of 1,293.9M with a 23% margin, so high.

Think another factor is actually looking at their sales volume.
Not talking 5-6 trades a day from the company shop here.??
Sederna is the flagship of Croda, these sales results might be a little old but anyone care to deduct even a small percentage, even go with 10p. They do have a full range and many are much more affordable around £30.
file:///C:/Users/Alan/Downloads/2017%20Full%20Year%20Results%20(1).pdf

Hi TT,
Some of the top creams I've been looking at that they sell are well into 3 figs, certainly not 20 to 50 a pot, but expect they do those "cheaper" ones as well. Makes those kind of royalties much more possible.
Also I've seen similar questions asking "where SA has confirmed it" before, and have a think about it, and for other products as well. Only a fool of a CEO would officially declare that say "we make a tenner a pot", because you would furnish future partners doing deals with you some wonderful negotiating information. However in my limited experience such things are often mulled over without ever being specific at shareholder meetings etc. Just my opinion of course.