Ouch indeed! How far it falls is anybody's guess at this stage because the valuation is built on speculation.
It could go back to 10p based on the fact it was there before and nothing has changed since.
I agree with NigWit, I don't think this rise has had much to do with the trial. The information regarding the trial was known long before this rise and speculation surrounding an early settlement is completely unfounded. Are investors putting 2 + 2 together with Apple. If Apple are back on the scene and a clear revenue pipeline emerges (big ifs indeed), then I see no reason why this shouldn't trade somewhere in the region of 40p-50p like last time. The problem at the moment is there's no firm evidence supporting this and we're still in a position we've been in countless times before to no avail. I'm astonished that the share price has recovered this much on nothing concrete, but great! I certainly wouldn't encourage people to buy now though.
I don't think 30p looks cheap at all considering the downside.
Take the broker's view of a settlement between $200-$250m and treat the possibility of an injunction and licensing fees as an unknown, which is fair.
Then consider the prospect of Nanoco losing on a technicality and the consequences of that i.e. Nanoco is virtually worthless.
A market cap of £90m seems somewhere in the right range to me, but that's a baseless opinion. I certainly wouldn't expect it to go much higher without clear indication of a positive outcome, which we don't have and may be a considerable way off.
BATM Advanced Communications (BVC:100p), a provider of medical laboratory systems, diagnostic kits, cyber security and network solutions, has made three important announcements.
Firstly, its COVID-19 tests have been proved effective in accurately detecting all variants of the virus, including the latest mutations. BATM’s antigen test has 4+1 gene discovery capability, including the S-protein, compared with a market standard of one to three gene discovery. This enables it to provide more accurate results, reducing the risk of false positives and false negatives. It is being delivered to several private and government customers in Europe and other geographies.
Secondly, associate company Ador Diagnostics has developed a new innovative technology that can provide sample-to-answer diagnostics of bacterial, viral or fungal infections using DNA or RNA sampling in 15-20 minutes compared with 60-90 minutes for polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Ador’s NATlab molecular diagnostic bench-top analyser can analyse several pathogens (currently up to 400) at the same time, thus detecting all the possible pathogens associated with diseases such as meningitis, sepsis and respiratory diseases.
By accurately detecting the right strain of a disease, the correct treatment can be started immediately – something that is not possible with PCR methods. Several universities and hospitals in the UK, Europe, Israel and the USA are co-operating with Ador and in-hospital trials will commence in the first half. Demand is likely to be strong given that the speed and accuracy of identifying an infection is vital in providing the correct treatment and containing potential disease outbreaks.
Thirdly, BATM is selling its non-core NG Soft software subsidiary for US$33m (£24.5m) to unlock value for shareholders. The group will use the proceeds to accelerate growth in its core bio-medical, cyber security and network function virtualisation technology business, the latter is playing a critical role in the range of 5G services telecom operators can offer.
The 444 per cent gain on BATM shares since I included them in my 2017 Bargain Shares portfolio has helped drive up the portfolio total return to 100 per cent. A 2020 cash profit multiple of 37 times to enterprise valuation is worth paying at this stage of its earnings upgrade cycle as this is a US$1bn (170p a share target) company in the making. Buy.
It would be argument for settling, but it looks like Samsung don't believe they have infringed Nanoco's IP, so perhaps they found a loophole or technicality. If they're guilty, what would constitute an acceptable offer to Nanoco, who can see Samsung's massive investment? £10bn? It could be that a settlement will be massive or Samsung are innocent. That might be the scenario here.
A pre-trial settlement is very unlikely in Nano's case because the alleged infringement is vast and on-going.
For Nanoco to agree there would have to be an injunction or formal royalty arrangement for future sales on top of large-scale historical damages. Why are Samsung confident enough to build a $30bn factory? They don't seem nervous at all.
Scary stuff! Invest only what you can afford to lose.
I agree screenlearner, although we had a recent discussion about the patent review process. It's up for review soon so may not come into play at this stage, which could hinder Samsung's attempts to delay the trial. It will then most probably come back at the appeal phase after initial judgement, but by that time, the share price will kick on IF the verdict is positive.
With the commercial opportunities, I'll believe them when I see them. We're firmly in the been here before territory on that front.
The question is what value does the market place on a company with no clear revenue prospects, but a court case which will most likely result in a settlement of $200m+ and could be $billions? I've no idea what a sensible valuation is at this point, which is why I'd also urge caution.
Yh because the real COVIDIOTS believe you can stop a Coronavirus. Newsflash: You can't! It's impossible! You can vaccinate to reduce the risk, but you can't get out of it. Lockdown must not become a precedent, it kills people in droves and possibly more than COVID itself with COVID being recorded for so many deaths when it is in fact secondary. Added to the fact that people are afraid of operations and getting treated. We'll never know this of course, but what we must stop saying is "Lockdowns Save Lives" until we can actually sensibly corroborate this.
For what it's worth my view is that risk treatment should always be proportionate to risk nature. We know COVID has a disproportionately large impact on the eldery and those with respiratory conditions, so encourage those people to take precautions and sure, social distancing around those people too. This way we could better protect ourselves from the colossal, current unmeasured, consequences of lockdown and protect the vulnerable too, perhaps even more effectively!
idea idea I clearly take more of an optimistic view than you after today.
The Market Cap is just 3 times ebit, which is almost unprecedented for this sector.
The company have presented a robust pipeline today that I wasn't previously aware of, so I think they'll grow rapidly in the short-term to better reflect their true valuation, which should be around 13 times ebit really and even 20 is achievable.
Then look at the share price graph and where the trajectory from these positive results could take us. I'll start preparing for the £2 party!
It's not uncommon for valuations in this sector to be at 20x ebit.
Our valuation is about 4 times ebit and I thought this was due to something about to be uncovered perhaps, but that proved to be incorrect.
Acquisitions are rife in this sector and this company will be flashing on many radars right now.
This leads me to question what the appetite is of major shareholders for a sale? Perhaps they want to cream the profits and why not? Whether through a takeover or a natural correction in the share price, I'm extremely confident we'll see £2 soon and I'll continue to build my position in the meantime.