Member Info for bav1975

PS ...not sure what happened to the formatting in may last post..apologies.

i think trump has pretty much farked himself to be fair. he has gone in, thinking i bet a few missiles here and there and we will be done by monday morning. unfortunately others knew different and used him i suspect with the premise 'we will support you from the back' attitude and yes the 'might' of the u.s at their door (iran) will be enough to scare them. wrong.

as i see it and i am not overly worldly as i wish or pretend to be but the torch paper has been lit. where it stops i suspect only iran knows as they pretty much have nothing to loose in their 'regimes' mind. it's the people who want change i feel sorry for. trump will be looking for an exit and i suspect it will go something like this :

1) we have finished our special operation. (epic fury is now being renamed as epic failure)

2) we are now leaving for cuba who need to be whipped as we know we can beat them and i can claim another victory

3) israel, over to you to sort out the mess

4) iran will continue to disrupt, routes and cause major probs in the region

5) u.s will provide no 'warranty period' but expect 'arms' sales to go through the roof...classic, create the demand and sell into it

6) trump will distance himself from the whole of the me and in time say 'nothing to do with me guv'

7) russia will benefit as sanctions are dropped and china will just reposition themselves as the world order changes again and ready itself for its day in the 'sun'

might be a little simplistic in view but i don't see another way out, however do see an escalation in time\contagion aspect.

as always 'do nothing' in terms of rr if you can and don't need the cash...imagine where we would be without all this ****e in the me in terms of sp.

...nice finish indeed..not had a chance to look today...playing catchup a little. @gbholds....nice hold (all the best)...feeling tempted soon to de-risk a little...originally thought I would retire at 50 (last year)...but after 30 odd years of working enjoying my 'last' role quite a bit so prob stick around a year or so

Onwards and upwards hopefully for all.

Decided to buy a few more IAG, LGEN,RR and Marks this morn.... The end of the tax year can't come soon enough (current ISA's maxed out)...all brought in GIA and SIPP. Sit back and relax a little and try not to meddle to much in your portfolio...could turn very quickly and be on the wrong end.

Hats off to those who make a few bob in playing the market.

GL all this week.

I would not try and work out the rationale around market movements during these times or indeed sometimes in calmer times also. They will be irrational and won't make much sense. It will eat you up and spit you out from an emotional perspective.

All I know is as soon as there is a sniff of a cease fire, things will rocket. Stay the course is all if your a LTH or sell if the stress is too much, simply put not worth it mentally if you need to now why things go up and down at certain times. There are obvious patterns and directions during the day but like golf , you can have a very consistent 16 holes/wonderful scorecard (6 hrs. of trade movements) and the last 2 will blow you out. The more you play the better you get and the more you will not let the crappy holes dictate your mindset over time and bring you down. (Badlands we are talking about holes in the ground, nothing more) ....anyway lets hope for some positive developments over the weekend and mark_rs..take it easy.

Looks like all defence stocks took a bit of a beating in the last few hours in general. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Don't overthink it..no point.

In my teens I played this game a lot. Some of you may remember it also. The premise is simple. Grow your city, generate income and buy defence. Defence was the most important end goal as when everyone is playing nicely, all good, but the aim was to be able to go on the offensive when needed as well as defend.

You could build farms, schools, hospitals but you had to be able to defend it from attacks from other players. It is a game but look at the U.S today. It almost feels like this games premise is their constitutional mission statement.

What part of this does the UK government not understand? They talk about the rule of law and say harsh things, but to be fair no one cares internationally. We need to build our capabilities now. This includes Energy security.

HMS Dragon..a week before its ready to depart...wrong equipment installed for the wrong type of defence role. Really a week. Then heard this minister this morning talking about giving asylum seekers 10k to go back home, capped at 40k for a family unit. What are these jokers on?

The Defence Investment Strategy is still pending. This should be this governments No1 priority. Useless the lot of them. Other than that I am doing ok today :)

@JDS15 - I know what you mean regarding physical gold.....its a nice hedge to have and proven in its intrinsic value....hopefully never have to use it in vein.

I like stats and always like to look at markets on black swan type events (small or big). Just to position this a little....after 1 month of a certain event and using the FTSE 100 as the marker...(all approx./average):

During 2008 financial crash the FTSE went down by 15%

During 2020 Covid crash the FTSE retreated some 25 - 30%

During 2022 Ukraine Invasion the FTSE retreated by some 5 - 7%

During the 2025 Tariffs around 3%

Current ME conflict, I don't see a drop of more than 5% from the very high experienced this week in terms of FTSE 'high' but events are still unfolding so TBC in a months time

One thing which is always the same case throughout history...do nothing!....Its as simple as that...or add if you can.

I brought more IAG, Marks and Sparks, LGEN and RR today (not bothered about getting it at the bottom either as you never will)...not sure why I brought more RR though..have enough..but could not help it...it will recover..and yes you can hold gold, silver or crypto...but remember if WW3 breaks out...none of this will matter..zero! Cash won't be king either as everything will be frozen in the the ether!...and what ya gonna buy that someone else won't just steal...mad max territory!

Remember compounding is your friend..let it do its thing over time. With these lower entry points..what's not to like. Obv diff if your a day trader..where volatility is your friend if you play it right.

Https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-us-travel-airlines-mideast-flights-93f2559eb57f05989fb1de8fda7f21ec

@Tim, China and Russia have their own issues to deal with. China i reckon are just biding their time a little with regards to Taiwan. If anything they will want to help broker a deal as too much oil, cargo and business travel through the ME. Iran will continue to disrupt the whole region until that contagion aspect becomes to 'rich' for ME countries to stomach any longer and pressure will start to be applied to the U.S\Israel and Iran to make a deal of sorts. Before anyone says, i am no expert here just a view point is all.

As for RR and any other defence type stock, in part or full will be okay. The pressure point being generated in the ME in terms of flight disruptions will be released and it will be very busy very quickly with airlines, people and businesses playing catch up.

The only IF is if things go south quickly with more aggressive tactics across the region and frequency. Then all bets will be off on how markets will react.

Thought I would take a look at flight radar --> https://www.flightradar24.com/30.12,49.40/3

Leaving political views aside - will be interesting to see what RR opens up at and closes tomorrow. I think all will depend on whether the ‘hub’ airports in the middle east open up or not in the next day or so. They will divert flights I am sure where possible but with regional carriers like Emirates, Qatar, Eithad all massively impacted only so much they can do and go.

RR is a sensitive soul and even though the main revenue generators are ' flight times of engines', having other revenue streams hopefully with cushion the landing little.

Take it easy guys and have good evening - be patient on this one is all that is required.

Could be worse, look at IAG today. Have a load in there also..nothing like RR (share wise), but with geopolitics at play..very sensitive to Middle East/Oil prices I suspect. With RR you have a number of revenue generators which bodes well.

Have a good weekend all. All in all been a very good week for RR.

Just saw that...wow did not expect that!...usually pretty good via CNBC around 16:38 or so.

:)

Need to wait until around 15:15 or so onwards to get a real feel for direction..yup not nice based on the paper gains made today and lost..but stick with it..all good..

@Investerintheknow , that made me chuckle....very much like you in my mindset. Knowing you have the purchasing power Vs actually using it are two very different things. I have begun to change my mindset a little and brought a few things, more experiences than anything else, but its a very fortunate position to be in and a privilege in many ways. Don't wait to long to buy that new jumper, a sugar cane field and new car..;-)

U.S Employment numbers @13:30..lets see how that pans out...

@Auguste - sounds good!...we are thinking of Thailand in the next few weeks...can't wait.

It was great to see RR hit the highs today of £14 + and no doubt it will be over that hump in due course and beyond, period.. What a journey and long may it continue. Looking forward to the partnerships regarding narrow body aircraft and SMR progress.

For the last 4 years, RR in a good way maybe has been like a friend. A sponsor if you like who has helped me in many different ways. It has done exactly what it said it would do and you simply cannot fault that. It's helped me mentally, physically and emotionally when times were pretty tough and knowing there was a common thread of stability sitting in the background has enabled me to make better decisions going forward.

Good luck all for the future, if you need to sell, forget the FOMO and sell and be happy with the profit. If your holding on..looking forward to the banter, good or bad for many years to come.

Tonight...there will be Fizz me reckons with some Fish 'n' Chips ta boot...that's how i like to Roll's