Member Info for bav1975

Hope all had a good weekend. Was hoping for a breakthrough over the long weekend in the ME. Markets were quite calm yesterday, US pretty flat, prob down to no liquidity.

Good luck this week all

Holding up ok today - let’s see how the UN vote holds up at 3pm regarding the Strait. Still not convinced this has any real merit.

On the flip side - when markets open on Tuesday your ISA allocations would have reset for the year. Good opp to transfer out if you anything in a GIA

Looks like some sort of solution is being proposed between Oman and Iran for passage through the Strait. This comes from Iran who I believe more than the twonk in the Whitehouse. Dow shot up in the last 15 mins to almost recover its losses today.

Have a good weekend ...beer time fast approaching!

2a) Leaving NATO

I am a little worried about this address Chump the Trump has scheduled for 9pm - Eastern \ 02:00BST. Apt its after markets close. It could be :

1) Boots on the ground to find King Kong on Kharg island

2) We are exiting ME and here is the plan and how successful we have been

3) Talk about his ballroom and how big and beautiful it will be and how the injunctions won't stop him

4) A PowerPoint to explain how he sets his wonderful hair in the morning and get that tango orange look.

5) All of the above.

If Trump was a Satnav, not sure how he expects anyone to follow with all the right, left,, u-turn, exits that he has done in the last 1 month with this Epic journey to nowhere.

Lets see and good luck.

Could not find much either news wise. Checked WTI Crude and Brent Crude spot price...WTI has gone down a few percent, but Brent is up. Lets see if Trump 'farted' a tweet somewhere...like all good farts, the silent ones are the most potent and get the biggest reactions.

U.S markets just went up - Dow up by about 850 points (2%) odd

Worry not...our day in the sun will be coming soon enough (again). Keep the faith and do nothing if you can..

@Clued , Iran is a mixture of Vietnam, Afghanistan ,Iraq and everything in between. The terrain is desert, mountainous and jungle. What I do think however is 'boots on the ground' means a regime change as an end goal and securing the strait...the latter being priority. Will they achieve this...I very much doubt but the markets will price it in either way, knowing there is some sort of 'play' in mind.

Right now we don't know what exactly 'Bill and Ted the flower pot men' are thinking or trying to achieve. Mr Katz is vague about it all while Team America are acting like this is an NFL game/ go deep.

None of us are experts and none of us know where this will go 100% but I do think everyone is on the same page on this forum when it comes how much of a complete failure this is in terms of leadership, strategy and common plain sense when trying to achieve the intended goals (these are also debatable).

this is where you need discipline, whether your holding or selling. some of us will remember the covid days of investing (just to confirm this is not a covid situation at all) where price action was absolutely bonkers on a daily basis based on a ‘positive sniff of news or negative’. ….just do not lose your head and try to find the bottoms and tops is all and worse..chase your loses and burn your gains.

some mentioned a pre £10 sp is in the off’ing, which is entirely possible which takes us back to july 2025 sp levels, not the end of the world (especially for lth)

i like what hotplant said in that when you sell, think about the money you have made not lost based on the highs over the last month.

i personally will hold my gia holdings as is in rr but my isa holding i may cash a little out, maybe up to 25% of my entire portfolio’s worth and keep in cash.

this will swing wildly in the coming weeks i suspect. troops on the ground will i think restore market confidence in part as we will all know what the end game is, regime change and securing the strait. market will price it in (bit of certainty) and things will just move on…maybe a simplistic view but the markets don’t care about subjectiveness and rational thought.

the flip side is, there is a cease fire and all parties get around a table to work out the ‘new’ world order of things. could be tolls, could be reparations..who knows…but that will be seen as positive.

the worst in my opinion is we just drift along as we are, with no one knowing what comes next in terms of this **** show

good luck all and have a wonderful sunday afternoon and week.

the art of deflection in fill swing potentially in terms of troop deployment and a peace deal on the cards. i still think gcc may get involved in the reparations side if need be and pull investment in the u.s going forward. if someone actually had a farking plan of what the end result could be with further escalations ...would be pretty helpful but don't see any type of success criteria being defined or any logic to this war from the very start. this '***' packet peace deal put together by the donald trump and his marching band also seems a bit naive. however its a talking point, a start...and key here is both sides start talking. israel is the rogue element to this. they have different drivers and this will cause a few issues going forward .

Totally agree with the GIA vs ISA situation. I try not to dip into to my ISA at all and want to preserve it for a few more years and eventually dump mine and the wife’s into a dividend stock.

Always think about all those people who never use them (ISAs) and wish I could find a way to ‘leverage them’ with some sort of agreement but obv very dangerous. It’s the best thing in terms of investment wrappers this country has done.

One thing which is pretty much obvious by now (throughout the years) - the biggest ‘world’ stick is not religion, might (military), land mass or anything like that - simple terms it’s the markets. Everything we love or don’t is controlled by them, demand and supply - Adam Smith / Alfred Marshall pretty much had it spot on all those many moons ago. What the world has done since is make markets ‘engines’ of the world.

Trump messed up, the Iranians know this and will I suspect leverage it massively in any deal . You mess the markets up - you’re done especially if you don’t fix it.

His tweets and messaging is a bit inconsistent - reckon he read ‘the emperors new clothes’ and created a playbook out of it!

I don't think anything has changed from this morning's doom and gloom (nothing really confirmed). What it does tell you is the swings and how large they can be if things go wrong or right. That's the rub you need to deal with and invest against. It not nice loosing out because you sold and also not nice when it drops like a stone.

I think Trump will take this thread he has pulled and run with it. I think Oman who is now trying to work with the Iranians to open up the Strait may take a leading role. I also think from a reparations perspective the whole GCC might get involved and offer up guarantees to Iran which would involve economic sanctions to the west if they do this again. They all know how much of a strangle hold they have now when it comes to the 'black gold' and they can make it 10x worse if they want to in the future.

Just an opinion....also why would GCC pay for reparations...easy really...they will loose everything if they can't get Iran back on 'side'. Money talks unfortunately.

If you need to sell and cannot afford to wait this out, personally I would sell.

If you have shares in a GIA account the trade off is the 24% tax bill, minus any allowance that is not used for this year (currently 3k). You will need to pay that 24%, however it does not prevent you from buying again and that bill will be due in the following tax year. Also remember section 106 for average price of a share and how that is calculated when looking at your gain. This will apply especially when you have averaged up over time

If you have an ISA, obviously you can jump in and out as you like with no TAX payable. Just remember that once it leaves the tax wrapper and the money is in your bank account..you can't shove it back in.

...if this war was not going on...pretty sure the SP would be £14+ by now.

For the LTH sub £1..its not so bad as people have made 1000% profit. The nearer you are to £10 regarding buying 'in' I think the more I would be inclined to sell a little and wait for a better entry point later if it comes. Again yoru tax position should help you decide what you do together with needing the cash now or not.

I am in two minds now on my ISA stocks in RR. This will turn quick once there is a breakthrough of sorts. Right now..I don't know what that could be. If your holding GL..if your selling well done. Off to the pub....for the whole week me thinks!

Good luck this week all.

Watched him on CNBC this evening talking about how he made a gold coloured paint without using actual gold!..its the first ever time thats been done and he did it!...was talking about the Trump Kennedy Centre...the guy has no clue..trying to understand him a little but loosing my own sanity in the process...

Every now and again I am lookng up at the sky and wondering if we are all part of the 'Truman Show'.

Compared to the rest of the market, seems heavy drop wise. Pretty much the biggest faller as I write. Profit taking before the weekend potentially, who knows what those clowns will do in the west over the weekend..but looking at the usual suspects, BAE, IAG, Melrose and even the FTSE..all OK, but this just seems to be drifting downwards...not found anything to be concerned about...but a big drop, from U.S open.

@ Brazil21 , oooo - I remember that place!( good few years ago)...we went to the top where there was a fantastic bar and always remember the atmosphere and the sunset....truly amazing it was :)

@Retirement,

The frustration of this government and previous and many more past ones is astonishing. We have debated, rinsed and repeated the same conversations over and over again and my conclusion is whichever way you cut it, change will not happen from the top as putting it simply, human nature takes over and with that the 'bias' element.

If you like war, you will no doubt spend on defence and won't shy away from a war or two. If your a socialist you will build the welfare system up..if you like green energy you will spend on wind chimes and giant floats in the ocean and sing 'Kum Ba Yah' around a fossil free camp fire.

The people of the UK will not rise up, they will march on a Saturday and in the most extreme case, smash a few windows but like in Rocky 4 when Balboa is getting battered by Drago...something will snap at an individual level rather than at a macro level and you will find away of being half happy with the world and win your battle. That could be settling with what you have or find a halfway house, not perfect but just ok.

The only thing I can think of doing is making sure your 'circle' of friends and family are well and help where you can. You can move to another country where it affords you a better suited lifestyle etc but that comes with its own problems.

Upside is if the Zack bloke gets in from the Greens...sure he could hypnotize everyone in the Middle East into a Peace deal...;-)..if the war is still ongoing.

IITK - all time classic 'Blazing Saddles'. I reckon they could 'fart' their way to victory better than these idiots to be fair.