Member Info for bav1975

UK CPI data tomorrow morn, hopefully move RR in the direction.

In the great words of one Del Boy ‘Trotter’…’RR your cramping my style, cramping my style’

:)

Https://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/24718339.update-rolls-royce-smr-factory-proposed-scotch-corner/

Interesting Quote from RR.

Part of this story, which dropped a few days ago :

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/production-essentially-stopped-for-british-built-typhoons/

Another classic from the UK...like watching an episode of 'Faulty Towers'....

A little bit off topic (but could benefit RR), but have been keeping an eye on this one for a little while, off the back of Rachel Thieves visiting Canada and looking at the pension setup over there. Effectively we have a very old system of managing pensions (state mostly). Investments are piecemeal and do not benefit from economies of scale (buying power). Make what you will but could be a positive for a change if you connect the dots.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1974633/chancellor-rachel-reeves-announce-major-pension-change-week

Reminds of the countless 'RFP' type processes I have been through and one in particular where we had 4 well known tech vendors competing/ pitching for some lucrative work, whereby many months were spent in creating a level, fair playing field with the end result being that the vendor chosen was always going to win due to strategic commercial positioning from the outset and to be fair it was all a bit of waste of time. The chosen vendor was not the best BTW.

I hope in RR's case 'strategic positioning' does not mean building a relationship with other countries who do not give a hoot about the UK and actually means using home grown tech\governance and foresight to develop on a world leading brand that is RR.

Sometimes I feel the world is playing football and we are playing cricket! Just not playing the same game in terms of economic\energy\defense security etc.

It’s a sector wide issue (supply chain). Airlines shouting about it now, need cover, maybe not today but in the future when things go wrong...they will want to pivot away from their own ineptness and point a finger at some other external contributor, however insignificant it is. Again, I am not saying it’s the airlines’ fault. Does not seem to have impacted IAG over the last week either share price wise.

Worked in quite a few industries over the last 25 odd years and it does not surprise me when bonus\comp season is around the corner how much deflection there is on how bad everything is to set expectations with employees.....you want a better bonus\ pay rise ???..really! did you not see the news that we have cancelled 1000's of flights and have no money...now get with the program. I have seen this countless times and eventually everyone just tows the line…unless your Boeing!.

Here's to a good week.

Thought about this too on this cold dank Sunday afternoon. It's baked in (in terms of current SP), in my opinion and I think the fact they mentioned it (RR) in their 3rd quarter update in black and white 'supply chain issues' there should be no surprises when more airlines come forward if they do and hence why flying hours for yearend are forecasted to be at the lower end of expectations (102% against 2019 hours).

Why always BA?...if their customer service is anything to go by (personally think its dire)...i wonder how good there back office operations are in terms of maintenance etc..not sure how it works from a scheduling perspective but I guess like a MOT if something is an advisory its discretionary and potentially could be kicked down the line to replace...ordinarily might be perfectly acceptable but when something like COVID hits, all of a sudden parts which were readily available disappear from the shelves...a perfect storm of events etc. Please note I do not know how this works at all but just trying to make sense of why it seems to be BA mostly that is impacted right now.

Hopefully the week will be nice and stable with a nice upward trend in solid increments.

Have a good week all.

+ IAG results tomorrow

@edward, this is a prime example of market irrationality. the frustration for me and most is seeing unmaterialized gains disappear overnight. its like peeping behind the curtain and seeing something fantastic and the next time you look its gone.

what still narks me off a little is there is no liquidity in the ftse markets at the best of times. we have to wait for the scraps of liquidity served from over from the u.s markets. they fart we **** our pants. no wonder companies don't want to list here..

still we have the following to look forward to before feb 2025:

smr deals with some of the nordic countries (could be confirmed)

deals with major airlines regarding orders

any inkling with a re-entry into narrow body market would be a positive (partnership announcements)

all time highs in relation to 'airport' traffic (xmas period) bodes well for 'flying' hours.

all good, keep the faith.

Based on previous knowns from RR and market sentiment and impending interest rate decisions, I would not be surprised with a £6+ opening based on what the markets have done today which was mostly based on U.S elections and a bit of stability and appetite for defense spending.

However I would be very surprised (nice surprise) if £6+ held on closing tomorrow. My main takeaway is, it might not reach £6+ tomorrow and hold, but it will in the very near future.

My alarm clock is set of 06:59.59 :)

Good luck for tomorrow guys....will partake in a glass (or two) of the red stuff tonight for sure

Https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/news/ROLLS-ROYCE-JP-Morgan-gives-a-Buy-rating-48267976/

4 Catalysts this week, IF :

Airlines report ‘beat expectation earnings'—>Rolls should be up

The US elections have a clear winner (markets hate uncertainty premise\debatable on who wins) —> Rolls should be up

Both FOMC and BOE reduce rates —> Rolls should be up

Rolls give good solid update —> Rolls should up.

Bar 1 (US Elections) I think we are in for a pretty good week all other things being equal.

Good luck for the week ahead.

This is no different from the UK shutting down oil refineries/storage facilities and exporting up to 80% of the oil abroad from the North Sea and we buying it back at triple the price (market rates etc). Very short sited and political decision making at its best (muppets). Everyone then wonders why we are so exposed to macro events in terms of energy.

To be honest RR should just forget about the UK and their endorsement (winning a contract) and as a business concentrate on the European ‘customers’. People have mentioned that why should anyone buy RR SMR’s if the UK has not…simple answer is everyone knows the UK is the capital of the world when it comes to ‘Red Tape’.

RR’s core businesses are sound. You as a shareholder own this business. Mr Market will always tempt you with irrational offers in terms of price on a day to day basis, but hold strong and long and you will be fine. For those that know…yes I have read the ‘Intelligent Investor’ a book that became a cornerstone of Berkshire Hathaways core principles. Great read/throughly recommend.

When I do look at the share-price on particularly volatile days I just switch the view to a monthly or even yearly view and look at the percentage growth…always green or blue…depending on what platform you look at.

Happy Friday everyone, looking forward to the Trading update next week.

my view :

iht thresholds will be reduced to maybe 250k

cgt rates will be equalized to 28% across both asset disposal and shares

dividends tax increase , 12 -15 % basic, 40% higher rate

isa's, not too sure about this, but i did see an article for rachel thieves back in 2015 odd where she was an advocate for a 500k lifetime cap:- they may well leave this alone as going on the 'working man' premise, if you have paid your dues and invest in an isa, your golden. however anything outside this wrapper, you could be considered as 'wealthy' and taxed

pension tax free relief of 25% reduced or capped at 100k (currently 268k) when you hit 55(57 in coming years)

this time tomorrow we will all know...good luck all. what **** show..

@Cardinal

To be fair i have not gone through a deep dive on this (s104) so much just yet. Will do a few calcs and see what's what. Just thought it was quite interesting. I do however have some real car crashes in terms of shares which I will def materialize in the same tax year as I sell some gains to cushion the blow.

Could help a few of you going forward / be a bit of interest.

Link --> https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shares-and-capital-gains-tax-hs284-self-assessment-helpsheet/hs284-shares-and-capital-gains-tax-2021

Operative element is : If all the shares in the holding are disposed of, the allowable expenditure is all of the pool of cost (average). If only some of the shares are disposed of, the allowable expenditure is a fraction of the pool of actual cost. The fraction is ‘Number of shares sold’ divided by ‘Total number of shares in the holding’.

What's interesting for me is that if you have a largish holding and a average price sub £1 for rolls shares for instance. Under the above rules to bring the average price up, you could by more and bring that average up so the 'gain' is less if that makes sense. Essentially the rules of 104 would apply when you dispose of them or in part. There are some worked examples of how it works and will def help people who have brought shares on the dips all the way up to the current share price..

I am sure some of you guys are already aware of this, just thought it was interesting if I have understood this right of course!

My view is quite binary :

If you need the cash and want to maximise your return on known rates of CGT, cash out now before the budget

If you intend to hold for another 12 -18 months min - hold, no point in my opinion doing anything; or

If you have a largish holding (subjective to each individual) sell half/quarter before budget day but effectively you will have a lower average of CGT when you sell what remains later (hedge your bets)

I personally do not see the point of selling now with the intention of buying again as you will incur two sets of CGT (one when you sell now and again when you re-buy and sell again later) and would need quite a rise in the share price as of today for that to make any sense. If however you think the share price will take a dive of 15 - 20 % then worth the risk if thats what you believe. I intend to hold until at least 2026/7

CGT whether you pay it or not, it will change come Wednesday. Are any of you guys actually going to stop trading after this date?…probably not it will just be the new world until the next bunch of muppets come in and decide what the exit fee is to leave the game.

There is a lot going on in the world at the moment, perfect storm of crap with budget, U.S elections, Ukraine, MiddleEast etc etc.The market hate uncertainty and it will get turbulent in the coming weeks as some people have already suggested.

But ‘fark it’ i think RR will be fine and happy to hold as I fortunately I do not need to materialize any gains right now.

@Investorintheknow - you only pay CGT on the sale (if outside an ISA). There is no additional income tax to pay on it and usually you only do a SA if you have rentals, self employed or are earning over 100k usually whereby you may get requested to do one. Ordinarily if you sell your shares you should do a SA but no one will necessarily tell you to do one

Good luck this week folks in whatever you do.

If anyone is interested in ruining their weekend, she will be live on LBC @ 16:00 today. Should make for an interesting waste of an hour.

Until we know what's what in terms of the budget we can all but have a guess..def makes for an interesting topic, but I am def holding fire with doing anything well after the budget has been announced as most taxation policies will prob start in the new fiscal year 2025...and even if it does not, I am sure they will retrospectively date any new legislation to take full advantage of their tx fill.

Chin up guys, we have a roof over our heads, pubs still serving a cold pint, weekend is here / things could be a lot worse and is for so many.

Have a good weekend all.

I see the Boeing vote went against the offer of a 35% pay increase, looks like they are bleeding money at the moment according to some news sources, up to $100 mil a day.

I do wonder how this impacts Rolls and Airbus and their relationship. Obviously, there are supply chains , upstream and downstream from the plane builder itself. All supply chain manufacturers directly associated with Boeing must be suffering and potentially looking at other avenues to generate income.

I don't think this bodes well overall for the aviation industry...and if the government has to step in..I think just like banks there will be a contagion effect.

Let’s see. Always seems like a bunch of noise around results day for RR..Murphy's law!..

Https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2561181/ge-aerospace-q3-2024-earnings-revenue-hits-98-billion-eps-at-156-surpassing-estimates