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The Barclays story tipping 550p is from Jul 2022.
For those of you wondering why the LSE has performed so poorly over the last 5 years, I would ask yourself "Did I vote leave" in the recent referendum. It will take another 5 years for the Brexit dust to settle and for the UK to look like an attractive destination for overseas investment. this has affected all the UK markets andTHG is not immune to these macro pressures.
Seems to be a slow ebbing of the share price over the last few weeks. This is a bit worrying considering that the share buyback has bought nearly £25m worth of shares since mid July. Perhaps there's bad news coming in the update?
Looks like there's a bit of life in the price today. I guess we'll find out more in the November update. Not seen ay news recently good or bad so I've no idea what's been moving the price other than macro data. From my calcs, DOCS are about £20m into the share buyback so far, so that leaves £30m to go.
Capita plc (‘Capita’) today announces that it has agreed to sell Trustmarque (‘Trustmarque’) to One Equity Partners for £111m on a cash free, debt free basis. Taking into account cash-like and debt-like items, Capita expects to receive net proceeds of c.£115m at completion. An additional c.£3m is receivable by Capita contingent on certain future events.
18th Aug ITV share price 60.42
18th Aug - “50p and below is the only price I would buy in at and purely to flip the share on short rises”
1st Sep - “No quick recovery here. No £1 for years.”
5th Sep - “Cannot see how this can trade above 50p for much longer.”
6th Oct - “I am holding firm. 50p by Christmas”
13th Oct - “Back down to 60p in 2 weeks, wiping out all gains”
22nd Oct - “50p on Christmas day!”
11 Nov - “Selling at 82p was genius”
27th Nov - “Here we go. Another truly awful day for all the holders at ITV”
27th Nov ITV share price 95.36
"These guys destroyed a quarter of a billion pounds of value for me and I’m determined to build it back up.”
This is what, according to one fund manager, the founder of Superdry is in effect saying about his attempt to restore the firm’s fortunes after his predecessors made, again in the fund manager’s words, a “dog’s breakfast of it”.
Liad Meidar of Gatemore Capital Management, whose Special Opportunities fund has a stake in the fashion brand, said Julian Dunkerton, its founder, had seen the value of his Superdry shares fall by about £250m when its market value plummeted from £1.3bn to £90m under the previous management.
This obviously gives Mr Dunkerton plenty of motivation to succeed – and it shows. “He fought to get back control of the company in April last year. There was lot of drama,” said Mr Meidar. “We think he is doing a lot of the right things to get the business back on track.
“He’s just as energetic and committed as before. He is a really incredible entrepreneur. He is renegotiating store leases, so fixed costs are falling significantly, and he is revamping the product line, breathing new life into it. And I think he’ll be around for a while.”
He added that there was “nothing wrong with the business” now. “Going into the pandemic there were a lot of factors that put it in a unique position,” Mr Meidar added. “One was it had net cash, a position that it managed to maintain into lockdown. It had had too much inventory but stopped purchasing and managed to clear it, while the warehouses for online shopping were kept running.”
He said Superdry’s “reasonably priced casual wear” put it “in the right place” as far as the pandemic was concerned. “This brand can do really well in this environment,” he added. “It was already in turnaround mode going into Covid – it was on the front foot.
“Now it is able to go further and get its cost structure right. For example, some shops could be closed but the firm could also open some new ones. Some landlords are offering variable-cost deals that in effect mean there is no risk for the tenant.”
He said Superdry charged “premium prices” but still offered good value for money. “You feel that you are getting a good deal, a good balance of quality and price.” The result is gross margins of about 64pc. Returns on capital tend to be in double digits, although they are depressed this year. “They could go into the high teens,” Mr Meidar said.
He said profit numbers were currently “all muddled” because of changes to accounting standards but the less volatile and arguably more important free cash flow figure should be more than £60m by 2022.
“A business with a market value of £110m is on course to produce £60m in cash in one year,” he said. “That reflects the bombed-out share price, which has arisen partly because some investors ‘short sold’ retailers.
“This is the type of opportunity we want. There are very few risk-reward stories like this out there.”
As far as I can tell the only new risk here is political - i.e.the threat of a Corbyn government. All other risks (i.e Brexit) are unchanged and the current volatility is just the normal ebb and flow of the market. If the current political instability ends in an election then the CPI business model would be badly affected