RE: FT29 Apr 2020 12:04
sorry but comparing WTI and Brent is like comparing apples and oranges and if you don't understand the difference between the 2 and the mechanics of how they are bought and sold you really shouldn't worry yourself about it.
all you need to understand is although the price of Brent will fluctuate up and down just as any other commodity bought or sold in the market place will, it will NEVER go negative and any journalist or reporter saying different is simply scaremongering with their misinformed sensationalist headlines.
anyway, as I mentioned the other day $26 per barrel (NOT $17) is the critical headline number for HUR and although it might be some time yet before Brent recovers and properly stabilises above $26 so that HUR are once again selling their oil at a profit, the $70 million in unrestricted and uncommitted free cash that they have on the balance sheet will safely and easily see them through the remainder of the year, albeit as I also mentioned previously any prolonged low oil price environment will undoubtedly impact next years financials and with it any forward thinking operational plans.
IMO what is YET to follow will be like the great depression that followed the 1929 stock market crash so the key for any company at the moment is simply SURVIVAL
the thing is the world will slowly and eventually return to some form of pre virus normality (albeit any normality of yesteryear might well be somewhat different in the future) and therefore the demand for oil will return and the prices will rise as stock piles start to deplete, however it will be a very slow burner so (IMHO) I wouldn't go expecting to see a rapid return of any SP into the 30's or 40's or 50's or 60's anytime soon.
I think if the oil price recovers and holds above $30 for a significant chunk of the second half of the year and as a result the SP is back into the mid to late 20's by end of year it'll be a very good start.
ATB