Member Info for barnaby67

I always thought that EA would only be announced at same time as a committed drill with an approved partner. Drilling still has a lot of opponents and so formal consent to drill will not be universally popular. I cannot see the BG issuing that and taking the stick from some quarters unilaterally unless there was a real and imminent actual prospect to bring in much needed revenue. I continue to hold (I have about 3m shares at admittedly an average that is still in OK profit). However things are very precarious now - I do worry about the prospect of not finding a drill partner in time and losing our licenses next year and so I will sell whilst I can get out with no loss of capital if things look like they are drifting aimlessly in the coming weeks. Today has cost me nigh on £130k of profits. Must be very tempting for the BG to whip them off us and then have an auction middle next year. No need for BPC to get its costs back then so more in the kitty for the BG and whichever major then wins! Whilst we might never know who the current major was, who knows they might be back next year having had a bloody good look at the data ahead of time. In he mean time, Potter can take his salary and focus on his golf handicap and being a useless tw*t again. Sorry after getting over it for most of the day I have flipped into cynical mode again.

BPC did not drop, the major did unfortunately. Think the major had the option (which BPC were bound to in that case) two further monthly renewals and so it is had to convince oneself of anything other than the existing major walked (for what reason we don’t know). The range of reasons for them walking ranges from good things for BPC potentially to very bad / potentially company existence ending things!

There is zero chance in my view of the BG allowing drilling unless it was led and backed by a major. They will want someone with a balance sheet in the tens of billions at a minimum who is responsible if there is a drilling disaster. It doesn’t look good at this point I have to admit and I subscribe to the view that we are scraping the barrel to find glints of light in a deep and dark cave!!

Surely there is no sale option that would end well for s/h’s at this stage given any buyer knows they would have BPC over a barrel. Unless something unexpected happens that is positive there must be a chance that the licences will simply not be renewed next year and the BG would have the chance to auction them. No recovery of past costs in that case. Also any discussions will see anyone interested taking a bit haircut on what they would have agreed prior to the exclusivity period - hard to convince your board when they say “well why did major X walk away, what did they see that you are missing”?

For me, if end of exclusivity had come a month ago (within original and paid for up front 3 months) I would have said it was more likely major looked and thought there was no value in a deal. The fact they tooknand paid for an extra month has to say there was something of clear interest to them but, for whatever reason, they could not agree on likely terms for a deal. Major would have offered something of where they were at even if as a stating point that was heavily biased towards themselves but BPC said that if that was a formal offer we would reject. I can see a lot of logic with an initial “offer” being non-binding and for their comment and thoughts only. Major then said right go and find something else (may even be for a fixed time period) and come back if you get a firm offer and we will see if it is then of interest. I am sure they have been negotiating for most of the tike - I cannot see that major finally showed their hand to say we think it is a pile of crap and not even worth thinking about drilling it. Maybe BG wanted certain guarantees / bond from the major that they weren’t pr pared to offer / meet.

The exclusivity agreement will have a confidentiality clause that will say that info is to say confidential for a period of probably 5-7 years even if it is terminated.

I would imagine that if a formal offer was tabled (but BPC did not accept) then in reporting this to the market they would probably have had to say who the offer was from. If the end of exclusivity is more driven by BG stalling then the parties could have agreed terms and said deal was subject to EA and hence BG approval but maybe the BG was dead against that as I would imagine it would hate being in the spotlight and under pressure to make a decision. So maybe the parties had no option today. However, unless to try and avoid a total stock collapse (as if what has happened isn’t bad enough) they had to chuck in the bit about other discussions and other routes. Maybe the first major will re-surface if the problem now is with BG sign-off. Clutching at straws - maybe I will stick the the major just low-balled them for now and saw them as Uber needy to do any deal!

Sorry Lyn, and I know you are just reporting what was said on AD etc, but there is zero chance of that being reality. If they had received a formal offer from the major but had, for the moment at least, not accepted it they would have had to disclose that as it is very material news. I take it that at best the major would have given an informal (non-binding) indication of where it was at and Potter said we won’t accept that (even if there was anything to accept) and so major said end of exclusivity. Equally it could be the BG were utterly procrastinating about their sign-off and major said enough, no end in sight and we’re not paying for this any more. Of course they, in that situation, could return. However, if the problem is with the BG then hard to see any progress with any route. I think BOC should give an up-to-date and honest assessment of where they are at with the EA.

Hi Jizzyjeff - actually don’t think I will take your recommendation. Placing / fund raise to keep the lights on is the last thing i see now. They have enough cash to keep going as is to end 2019. If they thought they needed cash at this point for more of the same in 2020 and beyond then quite frankly the business is dead anyway. They are funded in terms of on-going operational costs through the time to get a drill bit in the ground, so it’s really all about finding a partner in the next 6 months tops in my view.

I agree with that. If the major had told BPC it was their view there wasn’t enough oil in the prospects to fill one barrel then (a) discussions would not have gone on for 4 months with them and (b) Potter would be crossing the line peddling alternatives hoping he could find a bunch of mugs that would see the prospects his way. The fact there was an exclusivity period suggests to me either the parties couldn’t agree terms or the BG can’t commit themselves to a drill taking place. Clearly the former gives more hope going forward than the latter. Whilst they have implemented oil regs I have always had a niggly doubt as to whether they will press the button on allowing a drill to go ahead. Can someone remind me that the EA submitted will stand and so in theory we could get a decision on this (although many think it is only likely to be issued in the context of an actual drill rather than in anticipation of a drill)?

So you hadn’t noticed there has already been a mighty crash this morning?

Why do people feel the need to post alternative investments at this time. Probably taken a big hit like the rest of us this morning and need to feel good about themselves in recommending the next one that they will be so right on! I could have been a contender, I could have been someone etc etc!

Surely the most likely explanation is the major looked at all the data and just thought the risk / reward didn’t stack up. I find it hard to believe it was failure to agree terms with BPC - BPC surely would have pretty much taken any deal that was vaguely reasonable. Also absent EA we have no idea whether the BG want to see drilling. Potter’s comment on asset based drills are fanciful and probably shows he is now clutching at straws - can’t see the BG permitting drilling unless the project has a major behind it?

What does this mean for licences and the need to commence a drill? Obviously some time to April 2019 yet but another process that say takes a further 4 months to end 2018 to find a drill partner and fails pretty much puts the final nail in the coffin? We don’t know what role the BG played in this - are they still very reluctant to allow drilling and weren’t forthcoming with the EA?

You are optimistic!

Good location clean = good luck. Not ****ed enough that my typo’s are coming out with proper words still!

Finally got my 286p GLP break even point today. What an effing journey just to get my dosh back. Was pretty much £250k down at the lowest point, made some money shorting from mid 60’s to mid 30’s and then lost my nerve. Buying back in big time post restructuring made all the difference but nearly lost my nerve again in late May this year but stuck with it. You would think at this point I would walk away contented and sell out - like fu*k I will. This has got some way to go yet and i’m In it to the end, what ever that will be. Good location clean all LTH’s that are sticking with this, but spare a thought for those that have not made it. Right I have work to do - another pint needed!

The T in TW is generally taken to be tit or tool or tw*t. If he recommended a Share I had a significant position in I would sell out unless I was VERY VERY confident of its prospects. About the only thing memorable that I can recall where I had a good outcome associated with TW was a meal out with a bird I fancied the pants off in his Rivington Street restaurant about 10 years ago (and that was in spite of eating the food there).

to Tony, Adrian and Pete for all your work and Twitter postings. You lads have done / are doing a fantastic job informing us as best that can be done as to what's happening at the site. Absolutely brilliant job.

Can’t believe the apparent attribution of today’s market performance to Malcy’s write-up. Sure last bit saying you have to give some probability to the no deal outcome, but surely no-one could have not factored that in anyway? Malcy must bear some annoyance to the fact that Potter has ignored him for some time and further to the, utterly self-evident, fact there would be nothing new in the interview with the commercial director he would have to write something that he, in his tiny little mind, would come across as interesting to his readers and provoke some market reaction. With today’s fall I would think Malcy is felling smug. Whilst no fan of Potter I would think he is sitting in his office feeling smugger knowing what is to come and that he has (a) played Malcy like a fiddle and (b) Malcy is a t*at. Hold a tad over 4m of these at an average sub 1p so I can feel smug, but I sure as the humidity today in Hong Kong has bothered me I won’t be selling a single share until it multi-bags even from here. Good luck LTh’s And hang in there.