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You would think by the fall in SP and the sight of a plunging chart, that a big sell off was in play. The reality is that buys out-weighed sells for most of the day and are now at pretty much par at the close of play. Today was not a true reflection of pure trading. I suspect the MMs don't want this to get away too quickly and maybe some deeper pockets want in at a better price. Other views welcome.
When Cenkos originally set the 51p target they said it was conservative. Since the RNS yesterday with confirmation of 150m high quality, dry gas bearing sands, their reiteration of 51p has to be read as ‘ultra’ conservative. In other words they probably think it’s worth at least double that but don’t want to place their marker too far from the current SP for the purposes of credibility. As the SP gap is closed I’m sure they’ll raise it as appropriate. This is a very big fish we have on the line.
Reading between the lines I wouldn't say Gakara is a lost cause, but there doesn't seem much excitement or hope in this direction, as expressed in the RNS. Thoughts? It seems to have dragged on far longer than expected. I thought the intervention of Pham and his tidy payment for services would signal some movement, but obviously not.
‘I shall return to the depths from whence I came’. Let’s hope you’re right WMax. However, I’m sure my house was valued on the basis of what everyone else agreed it was worth. Anyway. I’ve said enough and only a fool talks down their own investment. One sunny day I shall return to collect my millions. ??
That’s all well and good N. But whether the SP is 9 or 11p is pretty immaterial when it comes to organising finance. It’s a it like me going to a bank wanting take out a mortgage for 300k. They say what deposit are you able to put down and I reply I’ve got 6k. They will obviously refer to their lending rules and say I’m sorry but we need a minimum of 10% which in this case is 30k. In my desperation to stay in the game I go to ‘depositulike’ and borrow the remaining 25k at an interest rate of 30% and have to put my business up as collateral. My point here is with an SP at 50p, what I consider it’s current fair value, we can debt fund this thing with excellent interest rates. With a puddly market cap we are far more limited in our choices and will either have to face far poorer terms or god forbid raise again. All this could have been partly or fully mitigated by a better comms strategy, faster decision making around PR and broker support and more focus on this relatively neglected area. I know there are those that are holding out on a good lab report, field recalibration and a bumper broker report but I am more in the camp of moving on a broad front and managing operations, finance and stakeholders in balance. We are very strong on ops. Finance seems to be ok based on previous farm outs etc, but we’ve had some nasty surprises here (PIs and IIs) and comms is one paced and desperately slow. Sorry, but 11p does not float my boat and it certainly won’t float a lenders’.
I hope you’re right BBB. Maybe I’m just being a bit impatient. Having said that I have been here for 12 years. Please don’t feel I’m having a go at you you, I’m not. In fact I very much enjoy your input. It’s just extremely frustrating that when Char finally has the much wanted luck we were all hoping for that the balloon doesn’t seem to be able to get off the ground. There’s probably truth in what we are both saying and I think NewK has a point to.
A 750bcf gas discovery wasn’t immaterial, successful reappraisal wasn’t immaterial, de-risking 4tcf prospects wasn’t immaterial, being awarded a 10MW hydrogen prospect wasn’t immaterial, winning the massive target rich Risanna acreage wasn’t immaterial. The list goes on. On one hand you would think ‘what else does CHAR need to do!’ But of course this isn’t just bad luck. Until they sort out their unpopularity and fix the hole in their bucket, no more good news is going to fill it. I’m not talking about news for news sake, that would be silly. I’m talking about something far more systemic.
Addendum. fTSE, Europe and US markets all up, gas and oil way way up and a good comparator PRD up 7.5%….CHAR down and flat. There is a problem and it’s not being addressed and hasn’t been for some time.
I have a different view BBB. CHAR should be managing the business across a broad front, looking after operations, finances and achieving fair value in the market place. When good news comes in the form of resource updates etc it runs the risk of generating minimal uplift relative to what it could/should be due to lack of market confidence and negative sentiment. We are already seeing this quite clearly in the lacklustre response to a transformative discovery and various positive commentary. There is no evidence at the moment that future news will suddenly change CHARs fortunes, in fact quite the reverse. I don’t think solely focussing on one aspect of the business in the hope it will change everything else is a reliable strategy. I think that is foolhardy and naive. I’m heavily invested here and proactively wanting to see progress, so not just having a go. I know from my personal experience of being a senior director of 2 FTSE 100 businesses that success comes through managing across a broad front and keeping all the plates spinning, rather than hoping one of the spinning plates will get you a home run. I’m sure the guys are working their butts off and are fully committed, but you have to take swift action if one of your wheels have fallen off.
You may be right GP. We may be on a number of blacklists due to historic 'money losing events' for many II's and countless PI's. You would think big money would be falling over itself to get into the action early on....but no evidence of that yet. A farm out could provide a much needed tipping point and show the market that this is very real and very lucrative. Yes, we'd have to give away a bit, but the strategy of going it alone isn't floating any boats....yet. What do I know.
FTSE and AIM both up over 3% today. We go down over 3% today. We should be a celebrity stock at the moment. Why were more shares sold today than bought? Who is selling in the current ideal conditions? I'm confident the lab results will be good, but in the meantime the Chariot speciality of radio silence is killing this share. It would seem Chariots technical excellence is only surpassed by their IR ineptitude. Kick out Celicourt, get your wallet out and get some proper pros in with deep connections....Either that or a least own up that whatever your doing on the SP front isn't working and you need a complete rethink, preferably including people other than just Char BoD.
I agree Jimmy. At the very least it should be at 50p and rising fast. With the current terrible situation and Europe’s need to find additional gas resources, CHAR couldn’t be better placed, let alone it’s potential to produce much needed hydrogen and ammonia further down the line. Our next door neighbour PRD rose over 22% on nothing other than an RNS simply letting the market know it might have some much needed gas. We have a significantly larger proven resource with huge multiple derisked plays within an enlarged licence. As you have pointed out, there are also deep oil opportunities to be explored and the Risanna licence includes a mammoth portfolio of 3D seismic data, pointing to potential targets amounting to an additional 8 TCF of high quality targets. If PRD rose 22% today we should have risen more. What on Earth are CHAR up to, beats me? I’m doing my best to be polite, but this performance in ideal conditions is poor to say the least.