Member Info for bandit1

I suppose this is a great sample for newbie investors to help them understand the inherent risk premium that is applied to companies trying to operate in Africa with rules made up on the hoof to suit those in power and their own demands. Over the years I have made a lot of money investing in aim miners operating in Africa but I have also lost a lot of money so nowadays I have only a small number in my portfolio at any one time for the reasons we see here. I remain confident that there is money to be made here from an entry point at these levels, with a positive outcome, and I will stick around until we are informed of the decision. Longer term however this has left a bad taste for me and whilst I appreciate that Williamson is the only asset in Tanzania this could happen in SA at any time and if the Chairman/CEO have limited power to influence as it apparent in this instance this will raise the risk premium even higher, for me anyway. I hope that we are told the truth as to why it has taken so long to deal with a simple issue but I suspect that the only real answer is........this is Africa!

2 weeks since the report in the local rag with a bizarrely obtuse quote from one of the main government officials trying to justify the delay in releasing the seized parcel as ' wanting to ensure that all parties are SATISFIED before they do so......' or words to that effect. I immediately wondered what 'SATISFACTION' looked like for the government - payment of fine, or other forms of retribution if the company was deemed to have erred in some way which is the claim the company deny. The company have issued new share awards, held an AGM to pass resolutions to reappoint directors etc who are silent on the demise of the share price and have said nothing else about this very troubling situation. Value is being destroyed here folks at an alarming rate. Watch for a pick-up in volume ahead of any eventual RNS as I have no doubt that this will be traded actively from outside of U.K. for a few to get ahead of the majority. PI's are certainly not getting any SATISFACTION with this long running saga at the moment. How will it end I wonder?

Difficult to tell exactly what he owns now as he seems to have buying in different funds. Let's hope he sees long term value here beyond the obvious short term risk. Quite a few hedge funds on the register now which may be good news but, again, difficult to tell which are long and where the short pressure is coming from apart from insignificant PI's. If the company are able to sort out banking covenants and report decent underlying trading without another substantial downgrade then this will power through 120p in the short term. Downside in my view could be 40p-50p on further downgrades but of course that is dependent on numbers and announcement re new banking arrangements. So, if I was a hedge fund manager I might be be prepared to accept the risk at this level.

This level of drop today is not justified by the pattern and types of trades so have to assume it is orchestrated by those working together either with inside information or to free up shares from nervous investors of which, understandably, there are many with this stock. Some people suggest that market makers do not walk a share up and down with impunity but they simply respond to supply and demand which, of course, is nonsense. Not for the faint hearted at the moment so either hang on and believe that previous Executives could not possibly have screwed up more than we have heard about so far or sell up, nurse your bruises and move onto other companies.

In my view the time taken to update the market on the current situation vis a vis banking facilities and potential additional costs if any) to exit the EFW contract in Glasgow was always likely to place continued pressure on the share price. I am surprised it has held up as well as it has over the last few weeks. There may be rumours around that retail investors are not privvy to or perhaps the shorts are having another go based on the information vacuum and they may be spreading negatives around to help their cause but pure speculation on my part. We have a relatively inexperienced CEO and a new CFO so they will not want to kitchen sink this without being certain of the facts hence their caution perhaps. Time to keep sitting on hands or top-up if you feel that you can take on additional risk.

No need to be too concerned here in my opinion. The Takeover code protects shareholders like us in situations like this. In short, if Crown want to make an offer they can do so at any time or buy through 30% and are compelled to make an offer under the Takeover Code at a price which is at least the highest price they have paid for the shares in the past 12 months as Indridcold has alluded to. In situations like this, Crown's Investment Bank/Broker will be in touch with the Takeover Panel (and I suspect they have already on a no-names basis) to establish exactly what their obligations are as they appear to be on a mission. They will know what they have to offer as a minimum but they will also be acutely aware that the other 70% on the share register know that the value of the company is at least 50p or higher so it would be pointless making a derisory offer of say 40p as it would be costly and would achieve nothing. The Code is also very clear that Crown could not be acting " in concert" with others to acquire more shares than 30% " under the radar" as that would be a clear breach of the Code and advisers would be severely sanctioned, so unlikely to be the case. Company will be aware of this so may sit back and wait for an offer or if they don't want to settle for as little as 50p may have more ambitious plans but so far no indication as to what that may be. Will we have to wait another year.............hope not?

I have no intention of playing png pong with other posters especially those who I suspect may wish to influence others for their own gain. I want to ensure that folks are aware that there are 2 other potential routes for the company to pay Avobone if the litigation goes against them. Read the post-suspension RNS. So, NNPC are not the only ones with leverage here are they? Hope that the lawyers insist that prior agreements stand and Fanning and Toscafund have sufficiently time to strike a deal with our friends and/or receive monies due and/or secure decent financing terms as a last resort. Not as bleak as some may want you to believe. All from me until next RNS.

I look into these posts a couple of times a day when I am feeling a little low so I can have a laugh. Many of the active posters on bulletin boards are motivated to influence others for their own and their friends' personal gains, some ( not enough these days) want to engage in intelligent discussion about a company in which they are invested, the vast majority ( certainly not enough) of people who subscribe, choose only to read posts, but never or rarely participate which is their prerogative, and which I did for years. That is reality, so please don't take these boards too seriously as a lot of stuff posted is absolute tripe. In my own experience some compromise will be reached here. Do not forget that the company have stated that they have other options to satisfy Avobone and will ensure that they reach some compromise before they conclude some sort of deal whilst in suspension. Ask yourself the question, what would you do if you were Fanning, not forgetting that Toscafund are pulling his strings? He will ensure that the suspension is not lifted until a resolution is found And that could be either, to secure the finance to pay Avobone, or encourage the Nigerians to cough up the money, or secure a new corporate deal which enables Avobone to drop the action and indeed their are other potential solutions which others here will have considered. Do you really think that Toscafund will stand idly by and allow their significant investment to crumble when there is so much potential value here? For what it is worth, my view is that this is simply a tactical move by Avobone to protect their interests as they were blindsided by yet another enforced suspension. Watch this space and try not to take some of the spurious comments on here too seriously, but of course no-one can actually do any more than cogitate on these and other boards!!

Well, well well. The recent discussions leading to the suspension have clearly irked Avobone as they were, rightly, not aware of what was going on, having recently agreed another extension. The company thankfully, have other options to pay Avobone but the litigation will be a distraction to management seeking to thrash out a deal which is frustrating. Nothing is ever straightforward here but it is at times like this that highly paid executives need to start to justify what they take out of the company. So, without suspension this would have dipped sharply so sort it out Fanning.

Good spot gents. Seems that there could be some light at the end of the tunnel taking the quotes at face value but timing still uncertain. Let's see if we can stop the slide into mid-60's and establish how management can avoid stepping on more banana skins going forward.

I will let people fill in the blank!! I am not the most patient individual nor always virtuous for that matter, especially when I have to sit and watch company management preside over a series of management blunders. With a 2017 high of over 160p and a sharp drop month on month to current levels due to a number of factors most of which were in their control, is not what I would call good management. Either staff within the company have been up to no good in attempting to low-ball a parcel from Williamson or the government are trying to make a point about something which we are being kept in the dark about. Either way, a big gap in revenue is why this will keep drifting until an outcome has been reached. Institutional holders must be questioning their position long term here given the year management have had. I will hang on in the vain hope that there is some form of resolution but this has made me re-assess my position in the medium term and will look for companies to invest in with greater transparency.......if I can find them!!

The recent bounce, whilst welcome, is probably due to closure of shorts rather than buying based on unfounded speculation spouted by usual idiots. I am hoping that Evil Kneveil is one of the shorters burnt somewhat, not because I dislike shooters as I have been short Tesla and Ryanair myself recently, but he has implied that Administration was a possibility, to help his short, which I find deplorable. Some wag on this board suggested that it takes both sorts to make a market but that probably tells you more about their own morals. Clarity on EFW contracts, banking facilities and whether any further provisions are required, are necessary before the price can start the long road to recovery In my view.

I wonder how long these ongoing discussions will take this time but sincerely hope that the deliberations over the last 7 weeks between these two have some substance to them. At least they all know the detail to help DD? SLE were clearly bounced into issuing the RNS by some inaccurate leak so who knows how serious these options between the 2 buddies are but this may be helpful either way to encourage the Chinese, who have been sitting on the sidelines, to engage again. The uncertainty around the payments from NNPC will be an issue in negotiations but if the reserves are improving this could re-ignite interest from various parties. Toscafund will drive a hard bargain to exit with their head held high and with something to show from their investment. Patience required again here but more positive than negative that is for sure.

I have to agree that this is not particularly smart vis a vis investor relations so the Board decided in their wisdom to release these awards notwithstanding the current pressure on the share price and therefore should not be surprised that the price drops again today. Little confidence in adding to my holding and just hope that they can release some positive news about the seized parcel sooner rather than later otherwise this will drop into 60's next week. If they are unable to book significant revenue from the seized parcel at the end of the adjudication process this could drop further into 50's making the achievement of performance awards difficult. CEO needs to step up and earn his corn.

Ah.......fair point, so a small cap stock if you want to be pedantic but that makes it even more of a concern to me with the communication vacuum. What is your informed opinion of the current situation?

I have been a shareholder here for some months speculating that the sharp drop seen over the summer was overdone and we would see a recovery by now as this is a solid company. All posters here will be well aware that the share price will be under continued pressure as time moves on and there is no clarity on the fate of the seized parcel of diamonds. The Board will also be acutely aware that their failure to deal with this matter and the information vacuum that is apparent will be rightly seen as a weakness of their management going forward and as a direct negative on the share price. So, do I sell now and take a loss which would be a logical move based on no news and the reality that the longer this goes on the worse the loss will be, or do I tough it out hoping that only knuckles will be wrapped inhouse and most of the diamonds will be eventually released to the export market allowing the company to show the revenues in their accounts minus a bung of course.......? The share price may then recover to 90p but I will probably sell out at that point as this could happen again and suggests to me something is not right here. Aim is full of promise and dreams but this situation is sadly all too typical so unless you are content to expect the unexpected stick to Funds. My message to management is - come clean on the problems with the parcel, why it has been seized, what is the likely impact on financials, and how will it affect the company,if at all, going forward. Too much opaqueness and secret squirrel on AIM which suits management as it protects them from criticism.

Not had a look at share register but from regulatory notices Crown has 26% and we know they can't buy through 30% unless they make an offer to all shareholders. Cash sitting doing nothing is not good business and management are not rewarded for doing nothing so let's hope they either act sooner rather than later to generate a return on investment or return the money to shareholders so we can put our cash to work somewhere else.

This share will continue to trade sideways until the company clarifies to shareholders what is actually happening to the parcel the Tanzanian government seized and will not release. I did not participate in the recent call but my question would have been - what is the reason for holding the parcel? If there is suspicion of undervaluation who in the company ( if anyone) was aware and participated in it? What is the remedy- a fine, employees being dismissed and/or some other form of censureship? Given that a later parcel has been released this suggest to me a one-off rather than systemic issue so I am struggling to understand if this hiatus is as a result of ongoing negotiation of the size of fine, an alternative valuation of the parcel, apportioning blame and/or subsequent litigation. If anyone managed to listen to the recent call please clarify to this board as much as you can. I appreciate this is Africa and we have to expect the unexpected which is why the investment risk is so high with these shares but there is a cap on this share until the government has its pound of flesh.

These chat rooms have become almost redundant as serious discussion forums given the rubbish spouted by many who use them. I used to read but rarely post but compelled when the quality of posts is at the level seen here. The weak can be influenced by such rubbish to sell or to buy which allows those who post untruths or unfounded speculation to make a few quid at the expense of others. EK is a trader who announced his short which was under water then carefully worded his opinion on the company to avoid legal challenge but to 'encourage' his entourage to re-post. A useful reminder to inexperienced investors to DYOR before acting. I suspect that the company will restructure bank facilities with support of lenders and the share will recover from recent lows but will not gain significantly until CEO/CFO issue clarity on ultimate cost of EFW contracts and accounting treatment.