Member Info for bandit1

Crown will be acutely aware that they must stop at 29.9% otherwise they must make an offer under Rule 9. If they did have a spare £100m to justfiy say a 30% premium offer, I am not personally convinced they would get sufficient acceptances to get across the line. I would not be happy with 40p, would you? So, I think they are trying everything to unlock what we all see is quite a bit of value here although management , so far, can't seem to find they key! Here's hoping that the latest line-up deliver in 2018. I will continue to sit on my hands for another 6 months at least.

Patience is required in spades here with this share winning the prize for the least exciting share in my portfolio in 2017 by a long way! Now, I have reason to be optimistic still but would not be critical of those who have bailed out to pastures new. The new team put in place by Crown need to step up to the plate in 2018 otherwise more revolving doors. Come on let's give long suffering investors something to cheer about next year and deliver some shareholder value.

Yes it is of a kind but most shareholders would be happy for placing at the current market price give or take...... I want Toscafund now to use their skills to create value for ALL shareholders. I don't want them to get nearer to 75% of SLE as this could allow them too much power with special resolutions but us minions would have to turn up in person to meetings in number to protect our investment. Not sure it would ever come to that but others I am sure will similarly want Toscafund to concentrate more on incenting management even more on optimising the strong position they find themselves in with cash aplenty coming in, limited liabilities and hopefully enhanced reserves to improve revenue flows. I am keen for suspension to be lifted so I can acquire more but not expecting that.

One reading of this is that you tidy up the balance sheet to enable a cleaner transaction with MWL but if you are Toscafund you also receive a big fat fee for no risk due to security and another chunk of equity ( which has risk) but which could be doubled or more on a successful outcome from discussions. Us minions can only sit back and keep our fingers crossed that we make a lot of money on their coat tails as there is very little we can do when you have one shareholder with this clout. We should be cash rich in early 2018 so exciting times but I don't want many more deals like this otherwise we will be ignored but perhaps that is what is happening now..........

In simple terms, those who reduce their short positions have actually bought back borrowed stock and it can be a signal that they want to reduce their risk profile in case the price may start to head higher. Monitoring shorts can sometimes help to show sentiment changes by big traders/hedge funds which can help us PI's to make investment decisions but this is of course only one of a number of information sources upon which to make decisions.

In simple terms, those who reduce their short positions have actually bought back borrowed stock and it can be a signal that they want to reduce their risk profile in case the price may start to head higher. Monitoring shorts can sometimes help to show sentiment changes by big traders/hedge funds which can help us PI's to make investment decisions but this is of course only one of a number of information sources upon which to make decisions.

Will the small rise at the back end of last week persist up to Xmas and into 2018? I suppose that the answer to this question depends on the reason for the recent buying i.e. day traders or insiders or indeed longer term investors. Should the Tanzanian government decide to 'nationalise' the missing parcel and I accept that this is a possibility, however unpalatable, the company will have to decide where this leaves them in terms of the future of their part-ownership of Williamson. It would be unacceptable in my view for the Board to just conveniently duck this issue again in their trading update and so I would hope that they will be able to issue a clear statement as to any definitive loss of revenue and profit and, if so, why? I think it is important to know why the company would be punished for the actions of government officials if they (Petra) had nothing to do with the undervaluation but why wouldn't the company have a close handle on the value? Answers on a postcard please! Perhaps the Board are hoping for the best but planning for the worst in discussions with their bankers in obtaining a waiver from the covenant breach. Debt levels and therefore pressure on banking covenants are due to drop in 2018 as production at the SA mines increase. Worst case we may have to sell our stake in Williamson but I sincerely hope that some form of resolution is indeed possible at the 11th hour. This would not be a disaster by any means given the relatively small contribution of Williamson to total revenue and indeed the share price may be fully discounted in any event as a result of this saga. In talking directly to the company they continue to insist that they have no formal explanation from the government for their actions.

Due to some very aggressive shorting over the last few months this has the potential to rise very quickly as shorts are closed. Banks don't agree to lend another £180m, even if it just for 3 months, unless they have confidence from discussions with the recently appointed consultants and the new management team that there are no major additional shocks about to hit and that there are encouraging options to reduce the cost base and re-organise the business providing further uplift. One poster recently suggested that a company doctor is a bad thing, well some clearly think it is a positive and he was clearly unaware that there are already external advisers in the business!! I wonder if he has closed his little spread bet..........

Nice to see more activity. Perhaps some are getting wind of the release of the parcel. I have tried to find out if the 2 government officials who were arrested for trying to defraud the government by low-balling the value of the parcel, have been charged and sentenced - but no success so far in getting this info. If we can establish if those individuals were deemed to be working independently of the company we have nothing to worry about and the parcel should be released. If the company are deemed to have been involved in any way, that will be more complicated. I remain positive that this will come good but is a lesson to all of us when investing in this continent when rules are made up on the hoof so not for the faint hearted!! The flip side is that the returns can be good so efficient market theory probably applies.

Revolving doors here. Impossible to know why but assume that Crown and the CEO wanted to go in one direction and the Chairman had reservations for whatever reason but pure speculation on my part as we were not told. I thought the Chairman was a COC favoured appointee. If anyone who posts here attended the AGM, perhaps they would be good enough to say if there was any comment or unusual body language at the meeting today. A fair amount of sells again. I hope Crown know what they are doing but they have enough skin in the game to feel the pain if their actions to influence the Board do not bear fruit.

Good to hear something from the CEO who has been very quiet and to be fair, extremely busy these last few months. It was too much to expect any more at this point and so close to year-end and particularly given that a trading statement is only 1-month away and this will provide much-needed guidance on 2017 out-turn. So, a positive but I sense by the relatively muted reaction (4pm release probably was missed by some) is that there is still a lot to do as she made clear and she will also be keen to tell the market what efficiency improvements she wants them to bake into future forecasts that CEO/CFO will have to give and be judged on.

Management have done a decent job in tough circumstances and appear acutely aware what needs to be done with mobile. This will rise sharply today as the shorts close their positions and those on the sidelines see a value play. Between 10%-15% rise at close and then steadily climbing over coming weeks as institutions return on continuing dividends would be good to see.

Isn't it hilarious when people suggest it is funny that contracts are awarded when companies issue profit warnings? Anyone would think that profit warnings should mean that no business should have anything to do with Interserve likening it to a leper of the corporate world. But the reality is that there are many fools on these boards who don't understand business or investing beyond making a few quid here or there day trading and will say anything even if it makes them look like a fool. Most of the FTSE 100 have issued have profit warnings over the years and amazingly they are still trading - funny that! Another fool on filter..........

This share continues to confuse me. The coming weeks and days will show whether Crown will buy up to 29.9% but then, what next? I think it is unlikely that they would make an offer so do they plan to sit on their 29.9% for another 3,6 months or more or are they confident that the company will actually make some investment decisions which will encourage shareholders to remain/buy. Too many sellers around still so I have decided to expect little in the short term but hope to be pleasantly surprised that management are actually working on creating shareholder value.

Nice to see almost £400k in just 3 trades today reported late. This is a good sign going forward after a torrid time as this is likely to be institutional buying rather than short covering IMO. Given that we have no official idea what progress is being made in establishing the full extent of the exit from ETW contracts as yet, whether the banks are going to be accommodating in extending fresh facilities and indeed whether the underlying performance of the business is sound despite the recent challenges, that is a brave shout by someone. I would surmise that positive vibes have been given out which has helped today. Wouldn't it be nice to read an RNS pre-Xmas giving us someone to be merry about and to see the shorts squeezed?

Weeks pass by and what I see is a constant stream of small shareholders/traders bailing out having waited longer than they should have for clarity on the status of the missing jewels. I also see a floor on the price and some larger individual buys suggesting that some people are willing to accept the risk of never seeing the value from this parcel in the accounts. I believe that this would be highly unlikely and that therefore believe that at some point the parcel will be released to Antwerp. Problem is that the pressure on banking covenants will be even greater without revenue recognition for this parcel and hence the Tanzanian government has the company in a vice grip and for some reason wants to exert some influence for, presumably their own gain. My personal concern is that there are some protracted discussions around the 25% stake held by the government - do they want more as they are not satisfied enough with simply upping the royalty cut? Pure speculation on my part but what else are we pawns supposed to do when no communication is coming forth? Notwithstanding, I remain hopeful that by the end of the first quarter 2018 we will know what is happening and have some new Bank facilities agreed and can see a price in 3 figures and climbing.......

I certainly hope that we will see an increase in volume over the next 24 hours and that some will be spending their shillings.........

Clearly there are sellers here despite the obvious upside and you can see that most days. Trouble with this share is that timing of price moving action by the Board is uncertain so some will lose patience, sell and go elsewhere. I personally don't expect COC to make an offer either because they can't afford to or much more likely that is not their model. I think they will take their stake to 29.9% as they fully appreciate the upside and will benefit the most when value is finally realised. In the meantime they will continue to agitate IMO.

Well, 2 very large buys this morning amounting to �300,000. Is this buying from Insiders ahead of the RNS saying that the parcel has been released I wonder? Share price is down notwithstanding, so please explain that to me market makers. I received a polite reply from the company explaining that the Board are very frustrated too but it is clear to me that they are walking on eggshells here with a new government wishing to make a political point and they choose to do so with a asset they happen to own a stake in probably to validate their actions. Another parcel was released for export recently so it does appear this was all about grandstanding by the government rather than process issues or any failings by the company. The World Bank has fired some warning shots across the bows of the government which is good as they have influence over them.

I have been in touch with the Investor relations team today to make arguments as to why I believe that shareholders deserve an update and explanation of the current debacle and that I feel that the Board have a duty to explain what is going on when something as unusual as this happens. As Skippy999 said, valuing diamonds is not a difficult process so clearly something is amiss and they owe us an explanation. If I receive a response I will keep the Board informed but of course it won't contain any info that should be in an RNS.