Member Info for bandit1

Ignore that last post. Received a notification that there was a corporate action announcement ( Takeover ) of SLE which was both poorly worded and referred to the last RNS. Apologies for creating unnecessary excitement! Back to sleep here for a bit.

Anyone else getting wind of an update of discussions with MW? Keep an eye on the red dot.......

What pleases me most about the steady rise here is that some may remember that Evil Knevil announced taking a short position at 72p a few months ago and made what I called a contemptible statment "that is was not impossible that IRV would go into Administration". He had no facts to support that comment, he had no regard for the impact on employees and families he was only interested in the possibility that his band of followers may also short the shares helping his position so he might make lots of cash. Thankfully the price has risen steadily since then and will not look back with more professional executives in situ. I support short strategies but not by creating false rumours of that nature but the regulators seem incapable of policing those individuals. In this instance he failed miserably!

Some on here are so clearly hurting by past mistakes of management which is regrettable in the extreme but I don't think that introducing conspiracy theories, which are very hard to imagine, adds any credibility. We should concentrate in my view on what we do know which is that all eyes are very much on the next move they make and how management will use the increasing cash resources to do. The worst is behind the company thank goodness and it seems to me that if a RTO is what is agreed with MW we can scrutinise the potential impact. I recognise that we have no voting power to speak of but Toscafund and management do have duties to shareholders to respect and legal responsibilities too so no need to panic unnecessarily IMO. Whether we re-list in our current form will be dependent on current negotiations. If we do, that would by no means be a disaster as we could look forward to new plans either to expect a special dividend or development of our assets with an increasing oil price and outlook. Frustrating for everyone but keep an eye on the red dot......

Given the relatively small free float owning this share will feel like we are on a rollercoaster. Big institutional and industry interest will ensure that this is not a flash in the pan and progressive and ambitious management will keep investors updated so if you are in a position to do so, buy on days like this. Short term traders have done extremely well to boost the price post the holiday period and we should expect a pull-back. Exciting times ahead.

In my view the price will stick around these levels or even slightly lower until the company sees fit to update shareholders on developments. The missing parcel is more about what has been going on within the company rather than having a big impact on financials but we must not forget that if it was likely to be a positive outcome we would hear noises to that effect. there is no revenue recognition in the accounts fir this parcel as yet. I have assumed a negative outcome in Tanzania to inform my short-term position here until such time as the company say otherwise.

This is potentially another very significant licence over a large area. I sense that the slight pull-back here might reverse today as those on the sidelines realise that this is a great story.

Released a day earlier than the date on LSE and positive guidance on 2018 and performance going forward. Steady as she goes with EFW costs being absorbed and restructuring progress will reassure bankers helping the renegotiation of the facilities which we will hear about later. My sense is that the new team are very carefully getting to grips with past management decisions and drawing a neat line in the sand. Market should like this today as 2018 spreadsheets are updated and new investors look to come on board.

It looks as though a third of all the shares which were traded today took place within 5 minutes mid-afternoon and sales at 33p. Almost no shift in price. Difficult one to fathom this from from what happens day to day activity. I think best thing to do is wait for the sale of Etinde stake and wind-up of company with a healthy final dividend.

If the quoted dates are correct we should hear from the company on Thursday and this will be an important staging post for the new CEO. She has brought in a company doctor to restructure and the bankers have consultants in as well so it must be a frenetic time for the top team. I am hoping for clarity on additional impacts from Glasgow ETW contract if any, and some sense about any other issues which have been uncovered as part of the deep clean and kitchen sink exercise. This is the time to draw a line in the sand and show some leadership and direction. It may be that we will have to wait until the formal results update for the detail on covenants etc which will hopefully be positive and move the share price off these lowly levels.

Oops �223k trade.

That large �234k was a sell if you look at the time stamp. Doesn't matter as this very interesting share is on a tear and out of the blocks like no other in 2018. A combination of IC and SUN exposure has propelled this share upwards in no time. For me, the next couple of weeks are key. There is a relatively small float here which has helped the rapid rise and whilst of course this can work both ways the combination of being in the sweet spot as far as battery demand is concerned coupled with an attractive, easy to extract pit in Mexico and the teaser of another potentially significant deposit on the German/Czech border has created a perfect storm. I am not convinced that future fund raising will heavily dilute as existing shareholders may step forward. Exciting to be in here.

I must confess that I feel slight uncomfortable that the local news are reporting that the Parliamentary Select Committee on diamonds in Tanzania has accused Petra of " forgery and hiking equipment costs to deny the government its legitimate revenue". What remains unclear to me however is that the company does not appear to have been formally charged if indeed that is possible for a corporate entity in this part of the world as it is only 2 government officials at this point who have been in the stand. It frustrates me that the company will not comment on matters being reported in the press locally to confirm or deny so what conclusion should we reach? If company officials have been up to no good then all will be revealed in due course but does not bode well if true particularly as the government own 25% of the mine. This happened in August last year and look at our share price since then? I continue to believe that there is value here but this debacle is holding the share price back in my opinion and obfuscation is not helping sentiment.

The trial of the two government officials accused of undervaluing our parcel was adjourned until 17th January at the hearing on Wednesday in Dar es Salaam. I was hoping that it would proceed with a speedy outcome which did not damage our company in any way. Further, I am hoping that the parcel is being held until the outcome of the trial is determined and will be released thereafter subject to no blame on Petra's side. The government will not confirm or deny this. The company remains tight-lipped on this matter too which is of course professional but won't even reassure me that the trading update will clarify and remove this thorn in our side. Let's see what happens on 17th if that date is respected. I want to understand what the motivation of those 2 senior officials was if they are convicted of undervaluing this parcel ( apart from reducing government royalties) as the only beneficiary that I can see is Petra...........Anyone else seeing something that I can't? If anyone lives in Tanzania and can pop along to the courts you could give us a heads up on what the heck is going on!!

This share is always going to stir up the most extreme emotions given that some have sadly lost a lot of money over the years due to mismanagement whilst others will have short positions who cannot extract themselves due to suspension. Who knows what the next RNS will say but it is likely that the next move when suspension is lifted is north given that many of the short term cashflow challenges have been positively resolved. Whether that is a 10% or 50% move to the upside or possibly even more is unclear and that will depend on the deal, if any, which is created as a result of the discussions. Having certainty of future cashflow is important to the market and to me as an investor and whatever happens this must be tightened for optimal value going forward. This, will we or won't we receive the next tranche of cash is no good to anyone and therefore I hope that any future deal removes this Mickey Mouse commercial arrangment once and for all. Exciting times ahead if your are long.

Could be short funds closing their positions and banking profits then opening new shorts. Difficult to tell exactly but when I see large buys and sells of same value that is what has happened in other stocks. It is often more transparent when a hedge fund has short positions of over 0.5% as you can track what they are doing but under 0.5% more difficult.

I tend to agree that some profits may be taken from the higher performing equity markets we have seen over the last couple of years and blue chip Russian stocks could benefit. Valuations are relatively low and whilst this Trust has a pretty concentrated portfolio I am hopeful that we will see greater interest in 2018. Downside risk is always the political dimension but if Putin can reign in his ego and avoid power grabs and cyber attacks etc. external investment may return. As Goldust pointed out an attractive yield and discount to nav could close fairly quickly if we see more days like today.

As many are well aware there are significant shorts here ( circa 8% with over 0.5%) so assume over 10% in total which is over 14m shares which accounts for say a couple of weeks volume. This means in my view that we should see quite a few holdings RNS's as they buy to cover and reduce their short positions. Some will simply be hedging long positions elsewhere, some will be punishing the managment team for past failings. All strategies perfectly bona fine and legal so not judging by any means but it confirms that we can see quick moves with heavily shorted stocks not to mention new investors coming on board to ride the momentum. Positive trading update this month and financing and banking covenant issue still needs to be positively communicated for the momentum to continue across Q1 but looking much better.

They are a hedge fund who amongst other things offer expensive financing solutions. I have come across them in other companies and don't like to see them on the creditors list so I see this as another positive that we no longer have to pay their high finance costs. The tide appear to be turning here now at last.

Nice to see that some tipsters like our prospects for 2018. Our share price is almost exactly 50% lower at close than at the start of this year which is a pretty tough pill to swallow but the market has been ncreasingly tough on companies which have failed to deliver on their promises. In many ways this is a useful reminder to CEO's that they have to deliver what they promise otherwise Darwin's, survival of the fittest will sort the wheat out from the chaf. I am convinced that we will see a good return from these modest levels and the trading update in a couple of weeks hopefully will start the year off on a sound footing. If the parcel is retained indefinitely that will be an issue for our investment in Williamson and could have a drag on our short term performance but increased production and investment in SA aided by improved political optimism will override any negatives from Tanzania. On the other hand if the parcel is released to Antwerp then we can expect an initial boost of 10p-20p if the explanation is satisfactory and the focus will return to management and operation performance. This time next year I hope to be saying that the the share price has returned to 160p and we are all a lot more satisfied with our investment.