Copper1 Jun 2021 11:32
I always find that the copper forecasts are confusing
This is Trading Economics forecast:-
Copper is expected to trade at 4.56 USd/LB by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.19 in 12 months time.
Then they say:-
Copper futures traded around $4.7 per pound, not far from a record-high of $4.9 per pound hit on May 10th, after a strike by a union of remote operations workers at BHP’s Escondida and Spence copper mines in Chile began on May 27th. In addition, upbeat US economic data and President Biden’s multitrillion-dollar infrastructure plan lent further optimism to the copper bulls. Strong PMIs data, in particular a private survey showing manufacturing activity in China advanced to a 5-month high and Markit data pointing to a record factory growth in Europe reinforced a positive narrative of economic strength. Overall, given how crucial copper is in the transition to a carbon-free world, demand is due to outstrip supply this year due to a lack of investment by large miners.
Seems to be contradictory
CNBC news 6th May
KEY POINTS
In a note Tuesday, Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer highlighted inventories measured in tons are now at levels seen 15 years ago.
Given the fundamental environment and the depleted inventories, Widmer said copper may spike to $13,000/t in the coming years after recently notching $10,000 for the first time in a decade.
David Neuhauser, founder and managing director of U.S. hedge fund Livermore Partners, told CNBC that copper is "the new oil."
Which way the price will go this year is anybody's guess but just take a look at where it was when NCM entered the Havieron jv $2.79 per lb today it's $4.67 down from a high of $4.90.
Strikes and stock shortages can only force the price higher.
I'm of the opinion when Havieron starts producing $5.00 will be a low price.
Investment in copper mines is still way low globally.
If the price rises to around $25,000 pt and gold doesn't rise then Havieron will be on the verge of a copper/gold mine and not gold/copper mine.
Some forecasters are predicting $30,000pt.
All very confusing :))