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Hi Strudel
This is from the MRE RNS in December from the Commentary right down the bottom in small print:-
“ The Inferred Mineral Resource estimate is reported within a notional constraining shell based on an A$50/t NSR value cut-off, based on mass mining by sub-level caving (SLC) with no internal selectivity. All internal materials are reported, including waste, which reflects the planned non-selective mining method. There is nothing to indicate at this stage that SLC is not an appropriate mining method.



The current proposal is to potentially commence mining the higher grade Crescent Zone by underground sub-level open stope (SLOS) and then continue mass mining of the remaining Crescent Zone and Breccia Zones by SLC.”

If there was any doubt in people’s minds then that should dispel them

ATB :))

Is TMT anywhere close with his statement:-
“ If December's update takes it to 6 moz that would be superb. Anything over 5 moz would get us into Tier 1, by many definitions.

12-15 moz is highly likely to happen, and IMO perhaps significantly more. But it's not happening in December.“

Firstly Sandeep was hoping to bring the PFS forward to September and an updated MRE would precede this.
Shaun has said a few times the MRE would be based on the original MRE.
Most of the last MRE was based around the SE crescent with a few blobs around the Northern crescent, so that’s 4.2m gold equivalent practically booked.
Hang on that was 6 months ago.
What’s happened since?
The grades within the MRE sulphides have increased significantly (from less than 5g/t down to 3g/t) and raised to greater than 5g/t.
Gold ounces therefore will increase from 2.2m oz to 3m oz
That’s not the end of it cos the sulphide volumes have also increased dramatically
(I will come back with figures for that)

The last MRE contained a lot of breccia around the sulphides, what % I’m not sure but the volume will have decreased due to the sulphides increasing.
The grades though within that area of breccia have increased with increases in concreted breccia.
My original calculations for that volume from published figures was between 5-7m oz but a lot were left out after not reaching the cut off grades.
Good possibility some of these will now have passed the cut offs.
I’m estimating
4.2m aueq
Plus 0.8m due to grade increase in sulphides
Plus 0.5-1m increase in sulphides
Plus 2m in the breccia
Being conservative somewhere between 7-8m aueq indicated and will all depend on the cut offs in the shells which might knock of 1-2m.

There may be a chance of them just turning the 4.2 fro inferred to indicated but I doubt it.

The Inferred MRE according to Shaun in December will include this years growth drilling.
What does that mean?
This is the volume between 750m depth of ore down to 1250 or 1300m.
There’s some fantastic long intercept drills in this , the SE crescent, Eastern breccia , northern breccia and northern crescent.
The northern crescent from the June RNS has a huge blob of sulphides of about 150m diameter .
If there isn’t 5-6m ounces eq in the inferred category I shall be very surprised .

The only way TMT will be correct is if NCM keep the lid on it a bit longer

Sorry TMT :))

Hi Bohemia
2P reserves are Total proven + probable
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ev-2p-ratio.asp

Columbus presentation 2019 has a good breakdown of estimates although EPI at the time did not know depths of net pay.
There is a plan showing contours of P90, P50 and P10. They estimated a mean value of 11.5m barrels from the lower Cruse. At the time the seismics were showing 3 thin horizons (I can’t remember how deep ) but I’m sure they didn’t total 63’.
Measuring the P90 area x depth x 6.29 barrels/ cube is a lot more than 11.5m but I will leave that to the experts
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/3068Q_1-2019-10-17.pdf

2P reserves can achieve 50% to 89% retrieveable barrels

Hi Bohemia
Someone quoted $60 x 1.29m barrels is what I was referring
My slip the company has 2P reserves of 1.29 not Saffron
I’m sorry for that but the total values will therefore be less as Goudron ,IT and others only have $30 gross revenue after tax and royalties based on $60

Hi Zag
I was putting some perspective on the 2P figures that were being misquoted this morning.
To put Saffron into context I am expecting the pressures on the Lower Cruse to diminish quickly ,the more drills into it will increase the depletion timescale . Under pump it should last a fair few years.
For one drill
645,000 •/• 200 = 8.8 years
1,148,000 •/• 200 = 15.7 years
(Not including down time)
2 to3 drills will need waterflood sooner, or the minimum value will be the more achievable than maximum

2P reserves are proven plus probable
CEG have 2P reserves of 1.29m
That means retrieveable reserves of a minimum of 645,000 barrels and a maximum of 1,148,000 barrels

Cerp estimated that Saffron would produce $50 per barrel gross revenue after tax and royalties on a $60 price
645,000 x $50 =$32,250,000 min
1,148,000 c $50 =$57,400,000 max

Hi neon
Have you got a link

Hi Neon
I’ve sold nearly all my oil shares just a few duff ones left Sound and Ukog both pumped up.
Really happy in gold shares, just about to do my 4th audio podcast, check out Ggphelp website they’re on there. If you can take my slow West Country twang :))
As far as Saffron goes it could be a big field I just hope the pressures hold up, there is a Royalty payment after the third deep drill from memory to the Singh estates

Hi Neon
Hope you are keeping well.
Are you still in then I thought you followed me to IKA, I sold all my Cerp shares last Summer before the merger best thing I ever did. I’ve bought a few CEG back not very many just to see how Saffron goes.
I’m waiting for the depletion figures of when the pressures drop.
The SWP assets always drew me here, the rest of CEG assets is going to be a hard slog.
In the Cerp presentation they gave us a breakdown of the assets @ $60 / barrel
Bonasse = $50 gross revenue after taxes and royalties
Icacos = $40 gross revenue
Rest = $30 gross revenue

I said before the merger there was no way Innis Trinity could pay for 2 companies to make profit there.
The rest will always struggle with pressure depletion.
Stick to Saffron to get some cash in but the pressures are likely to drop off and pumps required and waterflood eventually so more capex.
I won’t be putting anymore in, lost loads from selling out but luckily regained it all

Good luck

Rephrase that Hydrogen to “ it’s a potential world class gold/copper mine”
That’s one up from a Tier 1
It’s what SD keeps saying World class

High grade breccia:-
Possibility of the chalcopyrite ore in these pockets are bornite “the Pea**** ore “ .
Bornite weathers down to Chalcopyrites.
Chalcopyrites contain about 30% copper and Bornite contains c65%, so the copper grades there may be a lot higher.
I haven’t exactly studied the copper grades in the centre zones maybe one day :))

The 200m @ 0.45g/t is a stunning result in the lower grade section of the ore body, it shows the weaker crackle breccia is constant with no barren section within the drill length.
If you go back to the MRE results from NCM you can see a lot of squares in the centre of the ore body heading to the north. These squares or shells are not part of the MRE but what they are indicating is the position of the concreted and actinolite breccia positions.
It’s hard to distinguish between these 2 but the latter has a max cut off of 19g/t whereas the concreted is slightly higher, that doesn’t mean it will get that high but it is insinuating that the HGZ in the centre is high grade breccia

Hi MFU
The best way of looking at the results:-
Firstly don’t look at the included just the intercepts showing the average grades.
Then look at the cut off levels, if it’s 0.2g/t the intercepts should be quite long . In a 20m there should be no less than 10m continuously above that cut off , there could be 4 runs of 4m above but not make the criteria even though it has more length of intercepts.
Then look for cut offs above 1g/t these should have a 5m continuous run within a 10m length so there’s more chance of shorter intercepts.
Then there is the 30g/t cut offs , the intercept must have a continuous run over that grade which is they are short.

Now look at the included high grades results, where they are in the drill, you should be able to pinpoint where they are, if they are near the perimeter it will be the sulphides.
The length of the drill multiply by 0.866 will give you a rough idea of the depth
If you multiply by 0.5 you will get the rough length to its position

Drill 133 is very interesting at the end of hole,
Intercepts through the sulphides under the MRE are very strong
13m @ 32g/t
14.5m @ 32g/t
Both have a 1g/t cut off, that means there wasn’t a consistent 10m length with more than 1g/t.
Must be lumps of gold between:))

6m @ 62g/t
3.6m @ 120g/t
0.7m @ 82g/t
All have a cut off 30g/t that means the whole intercept has to have a grade above 30

That’s with a drill length of 1406
Then there are 2 side drills
133W1 length 1674m
133W2 length 1545m
Assay pending but the lengths where are they heading that’s 268m and 139m away from the sulphides
Looks like it’s following the gravity survey anomaly

They can’t do that to me , left me on tenterhooks
Had140 assay pending started off in the west heading for the top of the eastern breccia between The SE extension and the known Eastern breccia.
Had 141 from SW pad heading towards the north away from the known Eastern breccia

These may prove my assumptions that the ovoid has expanded below 900m of ore (1300 true depth) and that the Eastern and northern extensions join to form the larger ovoid.
Finding mineralisation under Lake Havieron will expand this ovoid!

Wow
Look at had 136 at the end 22.1 @0.36g/t not remarkable in itself but look where it is,
under Lake Havieron perhaps

Be careful when reading the drilling logs .
The assay pending results have the dip and the azimuth in the wrong column ie drilling upwards ( that would be fun open to the sky) :))

Well done Bottle for an entertaining hour, much appreciated :))

Wow that section through the SE crescent has been updated , the HGZ is a lot bigger and deeper.
Loads more HGZ in the Northern breccia too.

One drill pending for the Eastern has a drill length of 2036m probably near its max. That’s just into the top of it down to 1340m of ore true depth 1760 from surface