Member Info for Balanced66

But to add, each to their own risk levels - we all have own risk tolerance.

Thought this was interesting on the subject of crashes:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-should-be-wary-of-warren-buffetts-crash-warning-2020-08-26

Personally I think they are hard to predict timing wise, so good to have a healthy cash pot available for any downturn.

Am I right in thinking that most were pretty much fully invested before the March crash? Then most thought there was going to be a second leg down shortly after and here we are back to pre March crash levels.

Now a lot of people are talking about another crash or downturn later this year. For that reason I doubt it will happen this year, just my view, as markets are not so predictable, otherwise we would have been millionaires a long time ago; the stock market is very good at tricking people by doing the opposite of what you expect.

An interesting article:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/30/how-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-got-dirty

Captain you can't say it is a challenger for your company for obvious reasons - there has to be something to challenge.

Mologic are now muscling in on your company's future territory. By the time your company releases a test if it ever does there may be little or no market left for it.

I see you live in hope nevertheless and think that Heathrow will realise that your company's test is better and may drop the Mologic test when they realise Condor say it's rubbish compared to yours. Isn't that what you posted on your board. Yet more dreaming and hope.

Sounds like desperate posting to me. Do you come on this board to take out your frustrations as a result?

I do feel a little sorry for you you've been waiting around 6 months and still nothing.

Still positive for Pcr tests (and so potentially us as well for Heathrow):

"These testing trials are in addition to Heathrow’s already proposed inbound testing facility in partnership with Collinson and Swissport"

From Mologic website - " in addition to".

https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-covid-19-testing-at-heathrow-airport/

Heathrow article does say "experimental" tests which I understand to mean still in development.

I thought they wanted to open up flying quickly and not end of the year early next year?

How waiting for 15 minutes to administer the test and result per test is going to be quicker than running through many PCR tests per hour I don't know?

I thought these don't cover asymptomatic cases which defeats the purpose of airport testing.

Very good observation only1jop.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-pandemic-swine-flu-covid-a9693721.html

It might take some time for the other investments to mature as well. Engage looks like a long term one - with the economy being the way it is are we looking at 2-3 years to exit that hopefully at a profit? It's our biggest investment as well.

Did the company invest in Truspine in 2017? Well that has listed at about the same price for us as our investment so no return on that yet, maybe another 2-3 years to see that process well hopefully.

Some of the investments have been poor it seems WeShop £750k is not small change are we going to get a return on that? I accept you will get one or two that don't perform in any investment company pf. If it wasn't for the gold run and GGP nav wouldn't be far off from last year.

I have long term investments as well and I am mostly a medium long-term investor or at least try to be! But I can see that we might need a lot of patience here if we just leave it to the Board to do what they have been doing.

Where was the updates on the investments in the half yearly report? it looked rushed to me and they are being paid well. Last year we had updates on the investments.

I'm for long term investment but I don't want to be in a position 2-3 years down the road where we are in the same place or thereabouts.

I'm not convinced the buyback will do much to lift the price - it doesn't tend to looking at other companies who have tried it.

Not being negative sometimes pressure on the board can give them more focus to increase shareholder value.

I thought I would check out Avacta's rns so did that a few days ago. The wording of the rnsis very clever and somewhat vague. You have to read them very carefully to try to find out where they are at. They have some prototype tests being tested by Liverpool organisation BEFORE (for emphasis before anyone jumps in) full clinical validation. Then they said that CONDOR will "support" their new test for the masses. So looks like no clinical trials yet and then CE marks etc.

I was under the impression that CONDOR were evaluating the rapid test? I couldn't find that anywhere in the rns maybe I missed it? Apologies if it has clearly been mentioned in an rns
Sounds like we probably looking early next year now for their test if it's ever released? I think I said to someone on this board back in June for Avct test when the poster was referring us to a Twitter video by Avct. The poster thought the prototype test would be ready early July. I said he was probably looking at release end of this year - don't think I'm far out from that. Even that Professor who spoke about the 10 minute saliva test said some of the newer tests in the pipeline might miss this winter.

It's like someone said it would have been good to invest in Avct when it was around a pound level but for me with that kind of share it's all hype and yes you can profit but I would normally only feel comfortable putting in around 2-3% in that kind of share so don't feel like I've missed out on anything big profit wise.

Just my own thoughts and yes they may be right but they are chancing it a lot to be potentially proved right. Risk reward ratio there is not as good as here imo it's not always about trying to make the most money but also trying to minimise your potential losses as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/27/data-secrecy-covid-antibody-test-trusted-fingerprint-doubt

No probs Luciano

I think, with respect, you are falling into the shorters trap - best not to engage with them directly. We have a lot of other knowledgeable investors on here.

*ifs and buts.

Dana

That's what I was hinting at with my post the other day.

I wasn't trying to undermine long term shareholders or wanting my post to come across as a deramp which it wasn't.

There is clearly value in the company's holdings at the moment and one way to realise that is through forcing a special dividend with a sizeable return to shareholders from sale of an asset (s).

I hold shares in another similar vct type company and they have decided to monetize the assets when they can and return cash to shareholders so they are effectively winding down and the share price has already increased 50%.

They do have Crystal Amber an activist investor on board who put pressure on the Board.

If you look at the last 3 years the share price hasn't gone anywhere.

If GGP gets taken out then the share price should increase. That's if and buys though.
As someone mentioned AC has other posts and I think he will be spending more time on ARV in which I hold a few shares. So it's a lot to pay the Board here for what is a passive investment strategy once investments have been made.

Luciano

You're talking science now - I would leave that to our company that's why we are holding right, for them to take care of the science.

This is from Nova and it refers to NPT and it is still a PCR test!

"Novacyt’s near-patient testing system
The Company’s first COVID-19 test was designed for professional, central laboratory use
only. In this format, the components of the test are supplied in specific vials which
laboratory staff are required to pipette, along with the patient sample, in precise volumes,
into the reaction vessel. Whilst this is customary in clinical diagnostic laboratories, for
decentralised near-patient testing (NPT) settings a more direct procedure is required.
Novacyt’s objective is therefore to develop a system with a reduced number of workflow
steps for NPT. The Company plans to use its expertise in PCR testing to coat and stabilise
the essential biological components required for its COVID-19 test onto laboratory
products, such as reaction tubes. As a result, the laboratory products will be “ready-to-
use” on Novacyt’s q16 and q32 portable instruments and will only require the addition of
a small amount of patient sample to initiate the COVID-19 test.
Also part of the NPT system is the Company’s recently developed direct-to-PCR extraction
kit (exsig™ Direct), which extracts RNA from patient samples and further reduces the
number of workflow steps. As a result, the NPT system is ideally suited to applications in
mobile settings, such as care homes, key hospital departments and other community
locations. The Company expects to launch its NPT system by the end of July 2020."

Luciano
I don't know what point the good doc is trying to make now with this statement:

"To show a person does not have that virus does not need a PCR but needs a near patient test."

Nova have a NPT it's currently being trialled by Queen Mary's in care homes and it has a real professor leading it and we know his medical credentials because they are there for all to see and investigate.

If the good doc means that the American rapid test can confirm if someone is negative well that is not what Abbott advise do they - it needs confirming by molecular test.

Think one of the arguments before from this poster if I understood it correctly was that sooner or later you would just test someone to see if they didn't have it. That implies that most people at some point would have had it so you just have a test to test the negative people. Well that's not the direction tests are going are they? Also most of the population don't have it so that's not going to happen anytime soon.

Can we have some real analysis for a change.

I've seen this before throw in some weak arguments and get everyone distracted not going to work.

Good to see you posting here again Wbernard. I'll always consider you to be the "doc" of this board.

The new test has a number of limitations. It does not cater for asymptomatic people and with winter approaching those testing negative with flu like symptoms will be getting molecular based test after testing negative - this is what Abbott advise in the new test. So there may be more business coming the way of PCR tests during winter season with double whammy of testing those with flu.
These tests would not be used in airports etc from what I have read previously.
See it more of a threat for Avacta as it is their direct competition and at $5 each they're going to have to trim their profit forecasts dramatically. Oops! Lesson for Captain dreams need to be turned into reality quickly.
Countries outside US aren't going to wait for these tests to arrive end of this year early next year they need solutions now which Nova can supply with its NPT and high throughput testing.

Nolupus

Do you recall if there was any delay with the SPA last time round?

I think I read that what Imm is trying to do with these targeted trials using biomarkers etc is like personalised medicine and FDA haven't or have not approved many such trials in past?