Member Info for Balanced66

Not read the Sky article as have a problem when I get on the Sky page so can't read the text but BBC article suggests issue is specific to Roche and not wider supplies/suppliers due to Roche moving to a new warehouse:

"In a letter sent to NHS trusts, seen by the BBC, Roche said: In September we moved from our old warehouse to a new automated warehouse capable of much higher volumes.

"However, during the transition we encountered some unforeseen issues and a very significant drop in our processing capacity. Since then we have worked around the clock to prioritise and manage orders as well as increase this capacity".

Looks like one rogue trade at 11.49am but why so low a price?

This is all near term in terms of biotechs where people wait for up to 10 years or more to find out if the drug or device has been successful in phase 3 trials. How people can't wait a year here is beyond me. Agreed the price doesn't standstill when the odds on approval are great.

The broker should use your Dillionaire to fill in the annual earnings predictions I'm sure we would all be very happy with that!

An extension of the earlier contract is also a good sign as government happy with our service.

This is a good sign for further contracts with care homes, football clubs etc.

Hi Scoredagainsteps

You time these things well. I'm positive on this one like you. I've noticed in my short time in the markets that the best prospects are always very reasonably priced. It's the more speculative shares that people like chasing because they have no revenues in sight so people can make their own assertions as to the worth of the company.

But this share has near term revenues for those that like fundamentals and a pipeline of late stage products for people who like early stage biotechs.

I'd like to refer to it as a circa half a BILLION (caps allowed on this occasion as exceptional times!) pound contract. That way the significance sinks in!

True value outs in the end. I don't think we will be waiting that long though.

One of my other shares - Ncyt had a lot of the deramping crew on it and it went all the way back down to £2ish from a £5ish peak, mind you it rose from 10p since March.

However pleased now that it is above £6 and landed a nearly £0.5 billion contract!

If you have done your research daily fluctuations shouldn't worry you.

I'm positive that we will get Chronocort approval in Europe next year after all it is an extension drug product of Alkindi.

fali41

Well done!

You know he was talking rubbish now when the several hundred million pound contract obliterates all the arguments he made, not that I really knew what he was talking about what with a moat and then no moat? I think I and a few others were the ones was who challenged him at the time. Took a dislike to him when he claimed he was a former NHS doc with NHS pension and shorting a medical company working with the NHS.

People have said this board is full of rampers but the alleged rampers haven't lost people money yet - people who wanted to short term trade can't blame other people. How many sold in low 200s because derampers were saying it's going to 1.50 etc?

They should all go and join the so called MF which is a collective giving a diverse view of opinions from different contributors so people can make up their own minds. Except that we never got this diverse view from MF as far as Nova is concerned!

Hence my view that the views of MF contributors are the views of the company which pays them. No collective as far as Nova is concerned and no giving positive and negative views as far as Nova was concerned.

If they have now decided to select a positive write up from one of their contributors it just shows them for the Fool they are - where was this contribution when we were in the 200s and 300s?

They said in the full year results:

"The Group is also considering a number of further opportunities for the development of endocrinology-focused products addressing high levels of unmet need."

So not content with the 3 main products it has developed: Alkindi. Chronocort and Ditest it is developing more.

2 of these new products that we know about but little information has been given about at the moment are:

Hypothyroidism $1,000m (annual addressable market US & Europe) Modified-release T3 (preclinical)

Cushing’s $480 , (annual addressable market US & Europe) therapy (preclinical)

Both shares have done well for their own reasons. These kinds of mergers or takeovers very rarely happen because they are 2 different businesses. If there were a merger, for arguments sake, it probably would spell disaster for both share prices. Nova shareholders would probably think we are now stuck finding money for phase 3 trials and years and years of waiting. Don't forget sng main business is copd drug development which is only at mid stage phase 2. Long way to go for that. So that would be a drag on our share price. Sng shareholders meantime would be thinking we were developing new drugs what are we doing as part of a diagnostic company? So there share price would likely suffer also.

There will be takeovers but in the related field of diagnostics or wider health care sector but not a biotech that just wouldn't happen imv. Possibility maybe for distributing over the counter health care products though now that you have raised this - that is if the company wanted to get into that field.

We will have to wait and see

No. Biotech and diagnostic 2 different companies.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/04/trump-covid-white-house-panic-confusion

I found this amusing after the it's not a harmful virus attitude.

B2HS2L

Yes perhaps they may need that. Although they have a good model at the moment of outsourcing production through which they have kept margins high. There may be some diagnostic companies eager for work from us - I know one of the recent ones was - can't remember their name without looking it up.

ShaunP. Busy as ever I see!

I didn't do that but just be careful of the derampers/shorters hacking into your computer and changing the information for their purposes! We have had all sorts of derampers here and we have even had supporters of David Icke appear - never expected that!

You asked about the projected sales - I will be happy and I am sure the market will be happy with whatever the sales are - whether they are circa £300m or more. There are no broker forecasts as far as I can see so the sales figures will be well received. I remember the last trading statement in July a lot of us here were downbeat because we thought they were not selling 10 million tests a month or the price achieved was low. But the media gave us positive headlines. There is no benchmark at the moment so several hundred million turnover will be well received imo.

The other nice thing from the new contract is that a big chunk of the revenue will fall in next year's accounts. That's good from my pov as it will give us a second year of multi million pound turnover. It establishes a trading pattern.

The other point I have been trying to work out is what level of income they would expect to receive from covid for the next 5 years. Next financial year I think we are safe to say will possibly be more revenue than this year.

But what about the next 3 years after that. I think there will be a continued need for significant covid testing after that as well - think the vulnerable, people with metabolic disorder and airports as well maybe.

Say we only got a quarter or a third of the turnover annually in years 3-5 compared to now and next year, we have made acquisitions, we have diversified with our growth areas which the company has identified as transplant diagnostics and we have properly funded the other products such as food and animal testing (in the past accounts there are a number of references to capital constraints) so that those sales can be maximised (worth remembering that we did £13 million turnover from non covid business in last year's financial year.) That £13 million in time should increase I would think as there are no capital constraints and now we are debt free so more of that £13 million can go to the bottom line.

If all the above happens then we have a sustainable business going forward for the future and hopefully a re-rate in time to peer company price earnings ratios.

Any other thoughts from others?

Although Nova don't need an acquisition yet as they being flooded with orders, an acquisition might turn market sentiment (as in get us noticed by bigger funds etc).

The share price increase we are seeing now is to do with the new orders; this is still not a re-rate.

An acquisition may start the process of share price re-rate and then I would expect us to head towards £20 or more over the next say 12 months. Just compare us to our peers and see what they are valued at. ShaunP is invested in EKF Diagnostics and he will tell you what pe they are are and market cap compared to sales etc.

So acquisitions and diversifying product range which they have already announced with more focus on transplant diagnostics.

As always just opinion so for.

Agreed that happens. Perhaps why politicians get away with what they do because what they say accords with the beliefs and ideas of their supporters?

Anyway the reason why I mentioned science and facts is because of one of the few things that has stuck with me from my days of studying science at school and it is explained here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Objectivity_(science)

On the whole I think that works in the scientific community but then you have theories such as Darwinism which they claim to present as facts or accepted wisdom on the basis of flawed theories (but that's a debate for another day).

No issues with diagnostic companies and facts though as the standards are known but there might be some evolution theory in there with the mutation of the virus!

I don't quite get your logic? If diagnostic companies are successful then they are helping to reduce deaths. But the right tests need to be used as well.

If you are going to quote someone for a conspiracy theory go somewhere with more credibility.