Member Info for Balanced66

I follow Arix Bio which does the same sort of thing that Prim does but in the biotech sector. They came out with an rns today stating that Merck was buying one of their portfolio companies for over $2billion dollars. The company being bought is privately held. The sale of that company is expected to deliver net proceeds to Arix of approximately $185m (£142m), representing a 12x return on Arix's £12m invested capital.

This equates to a £121 million or 89p per share increase in the gross value of Arix's holding in that company. Before the rns the share was at 108p it finished at 162.5p a 50 per cent return.

Now this is not a pitch for Arix and I'm not saying buy it. I've actually sold out myself as it was just a short term trade for me.

The reason why I mention it is because a lot of these privately listed companies are consertively valued on balance sheets.

We have a few investments which appear to be great investments such as Engage, Zuus and Fresho. If these businesses continue to do well then anyone of these could publicly list or be taken over in future for multiples of the portfolio valuation. In that situation you would likely find that the share price has increased overnight by 50% plus.

It's not far fetched as that is one of the company's aims to maximise returns from the holdings.

With steady progress in the pf companies the share price should start seeing a steady increase hopefully anyway. I already hold around 8% in my pension and will consider adding to my pension and ISA at these levels as the downsides are limited.

They need to make some good investments with the ggp proceeds. Hopefully some of the other investments can come good as well such as WeShop. Not all investments will do well in an investment company's pf - usually the winners will more than compensate for any poor performers as ggp has shown.

Someone posted this article here the other day and it gives a view from another angle regarding vaccines and diagnostics which I hadn't considered in this way. Most people think that diagnostic tests will reduce in numbers following a vaccine. This article suggests, persuasively that the opposite may be the case. Not sure if this point was picked up in discussions on this board? It's not just suggesting use of antibody tests but also tests to check whether there is an active infection or not. For this purpose only the most accurate tests will be used imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/behind-covid-19-vaccines-hidden-arsenal-diagnostic-tests/amp/

"Secondly, testing will be needed for ongoing public health surveillance as we monitor the impact of the introduction of vaccines.

Post-licensure population-level studies are critical to collect ongoing effectiveness data on new vaccines, as they tell us whether a vaccine’s performance in real-world settings truly matches up with that seen in the clinical trials.

Without diagnostic tests, we cannot assess how well vaccines are really working, meaning that we won’t know whether there is still a need for further vaccine development efforts or for greater population coverage. Of course, we all hope that at least one of the many vaccines in clinical development will be effective."

Thanks 1509. I'm more a buy and hold and topsclice/take profits investor but trying my hand at a bit more trading. Been good so far with some quick in and out successful trades.

The Arix rns came out at around 11.38am so it would have been good to get it quicker than Vox (which is very good and worth installing). I reckon the better rns service is a paid one.

sunshin

I like Polx which I bought for an average price of around 27p. It's one of my long term holds.

It's gone up a lot since then and is probably a long term hold rather than a short term trade now imo.

If it gets FDA approval for its drug device then you could be looking at a potential 10 bagger within 2- 5 years if it's not taken over before then. It has Bracco management on the Board and they took over another company in a similar field a while back.

Obviously risks with FDA approval or refusal. But it's drug/device is already being used by top research centres in the US and so more likely to get FDA than not

I can't advise on short term trades but on a long term view it looks a good prospect. Justin Waite has done a video on it recently and Amati said something like it's the share they would hold for 10 years.

Perhaps as part of a balanced pf it deserves including. It has asked for a priority review if it gets that the share price will increase if it doesn't it may fall back a little. Failure to get priority review does not affect the overall consideration and decision of the FDA.

Just one idea.

I've had a lucky trade this morning the quickest 50% I've made I think in Arix Bio bought at 108p and sold 30 minutes later at 164p. That was good enough for me.

The alert came up on the Vox Markets app - I only read the money Arix were receiving from the cash sale and bought 10% of my pf of it straight away. Should have gone with 20% now I was thinking as it was a dead cert to go up - cash from the sale of one of its portfolio biotechs that almost matches its market cap - that was bound to lead to a quick increase.

What I was surprised by was I was able to deal before the mm locked me out which they did about a minute or so later!

Question for the more experienced traders - is there an rns alert service that gives you instant alerts? The vox market one is quick but there is also a delay with it I find of around 3 minutes or so. Had I received the alert quicker I could have purchased some more for my other account and my son's account.

Maybe I can work on my trading skills and get better after this good result.

Thanks. Can't access that one without logging in. Here's another link:

https://www.miragenews.com/ifm-investors-private-equity-team-invests-in-zuuse/

Looks like another great investment at an early stage to capitalise on emerging trends to go digital accelerated by Covid 19.

Great time to be having all that cash in these uncertain markets and times when small companies will be looking for funding.

Wilson63
gizmo555 might be referring to a possible national lockdown if Biden wins and massive testing during lockdown and outside it to bring numbers down? One of the newspaper articles I read recently mentioned that Biden was pro public health while Trump's main focus was saving the economy first. I'd go with Biden's approach as that will in the end improve things for businesses.

Looks similar to Innova test. Mixing swab in solution and then drops on the strip. Is this something that is DIY? The article suggests it is but that sort of procedure is not normally done by the users themselves.

Also not for asymptomatic people. As article says it is to complement other tests.

Won't be ready until they get funding and production sorted so sometime next year most likely.

It's us. The text below contains the words: "governments website" which is an embedded link in the text at the following page - scroll down to FAQ and click on "How reliable/accurate are the tests to find it.

"How reliable/accurate are the tests?
These tests are 99.9% accurate and are approved by Public Health England.

PHE approval and review on the tests we use can be found on the governments website."

This is the pdf it will take you to:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/889330/Rapid_assessment_Novacyt_Primerdesign_Coronavirus__COVID-19__Genesig.pdf

This one's been posted before I think but here it is again for our new fellow investors:

https://www.pharmacymayfair.co.uk/pages/covid-test#

Look under "Test Accuracy and Specificity" where Primerdesign is mentioned.

Just like to add also that it depends on whether it's a short term trade for you or not. If you are here for the medium or long term then earnings is what always moved a share forward over the long term. Over the short term it's just noise and speculation and you can make money from that as well and I've tried it as well and done good on a couple of stocks.

However, my main focus is always to look for strong undervalued companies which may not triple or quadruple in a week but on which I'm less likely to lose money over the medium to long term.

I always try to think worst case scenarios with my shares. What if there was a crash next week or an extended bear market or difficulty getting funding etc people will most likely be stuck with their short term trades. In that situation the strongest are likely to survive and pull through in better shape than before the period of market/economic malaise. I bought a few Trx on the pb offer recently and they were near going bankrupt and the dilution that happened pretty much wiped out existing shareholders. Just shows you the risks of biotechs and the importance of picking strong stocks.

That's one of the reasons I'm in dnl. If it continues to perform over the long term the share price should increase even of it doesn't over the short term. Dnl could even stop all drug programs in theory such as Chronocort, Ditest and just go with Alkindi and eventually the sales and profits from Alkindi will lead to a multiple of the share price. I'm not saying they are stopping all drug programs I'm just looking at absolute downsides and this is a safe stock on all those measures at these prices.

Obviously with shares there are your usual risks such as unforseen circumstances but that applies to all companies.

Not preaching or mentioning anything that's new here but just my own personal approach.

Richard Griffiths is under 3% so out or on his way out which is good news.

Thanks Nordell I'm trying to improve my short term trading skills. We all have our own trading/investing styles. I'm more a buy and hold investor and so try to pick shares that fit this more medium term and long term approach and will topsclice or sell out completely if fundamentals with a share change dramatically etc.

But I'd like to develop short term trading skills for when opportunities arise in the market so the advice you have given will be useful. Cheers and gl.

Nordell

Is there any particular software you use to identify these things or how to learn about these things for people who want to improve their understanding? I suppose YouTube is first point of call?

Innova one I think.

Peka

Thanks for the advice. You probably meant well. I'd rather have my own balanced portfolio (and I do) than a fund. The problem with funds is that they don't really grow your money except for a few good ones. From the 3 you posted the one below has an overall 5 year performance of 25%! That may be before charges as well as I haven't checked! The other 2 you posted have returned even less and the one seems to be a negative return!

For me and a lot of people to get 3-4 per cent after charges and inflation is very poor. Sharehunter would be saying where is the RNS so they are no good. There are better funds one I saw the other day of the other fund manager on the pi world webinar achieved just over a 100% over 10 years - not bad but a lot of people can do better themselves if they select stocks carefully themselves. Low volatility but nothing much happening in these funds. Thanks anyway.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/p/personal-assets-trust-plc-gbp12.50-ord/share-charts

He needs to pay attention to the Sona announcement on their pregnancy style test same as Avct.

Wilson63 his point was there was a threat from these new tests yet FDA not interested. They will only make it if up to a certain standard. I suppose Iag will have to wait for the even less reliable breath test if it ever makes it. They are looking for investors though so may attract someone. Lol

Yes funny that JC5523 yesterday a certain poster was warning us about impending doom due to faster tests and here the FDA have deprioritised the one in the link you posted. The shares are half price in that other company Triumph if you want to buy into the future. This is from Sona's statement:

"Sona Nanotech‘s rapid COVID-19 antigen test offers results within 15 minutes, using a pregnancy-type lateral flow test that is easy to administer and interpret by non-experts without the need for either laboratory equipment or a device to read its results. Underpinned by Sona Nanotech‘s proprietary, patent-pending, gold nanorod technology, its test showed 85% agreement to RT-PCR results in patients in an in-field study of 99 patients and 96% sensitivity in laboratory studies."

If Triumph was so good at charting he would have bought below a £1 rather than trading himself down in Iag, nex and other similar underperformers of the year.

He comes with his wisdom but doesn't answer the respons to his posts he just wants you to accept what he says because he refers to himself as a "pro trader" on the other board.