Member Info for Balanced66

You can't deny that JW benefits from buying beforehand and then tipping them on YouTube or Twitter ( if he does on Twitter as I don't go on it very often). But he would not be alone in doing this others do this also. However, he does push his stocks hard and I don't see any postings by him saying when he has reduced or sold. He should do this as well so there is balance and more transparency.

He says he is an investor and not a trader but there seems to be a fairly high churn rate - did he have C4X pharma recently - did he mention why he sold?

He also has had fantastic returns over and above what nearly all pi can achieve he mentions these in his recent videos from the last few weeks. I can't remember exactly what they are but something like 600% in last 6 years and was it 5000% in last 15 years!!! A ×50 increase. Even seasoned investors could never hope to achieve these kind of returns and what is he investing in just the normal Aim type of stocks that you and me invest in. He

https://mobile.twitter.com/InvinityEnergy/status/1332052539546722310?s=19

Thanks Bojo and Troajan for your posts. It's certainly made me look at the renewables sector. Maybe worth holding a renewables Etf over 12 months?

I've bought a small holding in Bmn this morning. Looks like a fair price and the forecasts (I don't know how accurate the forecasts are and circumstances can change to affect forecasts) have the company returning to profitability and on a p/e ratio of around 4 for 2021.

Morning Bojo

There must be other cheaper plays out there just need to find them before they really take off.

IES has risen a lot - maybe it has further to go I don't know. Look at likes of ITM which is now a £2 billion company! Revenue forecasts for next couple of years about the same ish as IES.

Any views on Bmn - maybe the future may be more positive for company with focus on renewables ?

This article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-11-24/astra-vaccine-s-90-efficacy-in-covid-came-in-younger-population?__twitter_impression=true

Read your post Andle and this article offers a view on FDA reception of Azn vaccine submission when it is made.

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/vadim-alexandre-covid-testing-stocks-tissue-regenix-plus-glen-goodman-on-bitcoin-cbade2f/

Some positive discussion from around 18 minutes onwards.

Similar to Ceres Power in many ways and similar ish revenue forecasts going forward. Ceres has a lot more cash on the balance sheet but Ies have already said they are funded for now so unlikely to be any dilution yet.

I've taken a small position in Ies just because of trends to renewables etc.

On fundamentals it's as good as other shares in this sector they are all emerging companies so turnover will be low to begin with.

Phe is on similar market cap but lower forecast turnover.

Hi Bojo2020

I will have a look at IES - I'm very weak on the energy/renewables sector in terms of knowledge so if others can comment as well that would be good.

Eqls looks to be really undervalued. If you look at its previous price history as well. Has a lot of cash as well looking on Stocko so hopefully no dilution in future.

Could easily double in the next month or two.

My problem is that I'm a bit too hesitant sometimes perhaps looking too much on the negatives whereas most investors just get stuck in. I had my eye on Shoe Zone and Parkmead in the last couple of weeks but never bought any so thought I wasn't going to make the same mistake with Eqls. Has been a lot of buying but share price not reacting yet - is it a coiled spring I wonder?

The 10th November 2020 RNS said:

"Following the notification by ImmuPharma, on 27 July 2020, that Avion Pharmaceuticals ("Avion"), ImmuPharma's licensing partner for Lupuzor™ had submitted a Special Protocol Assessment ("SPA") request to the US Food & Drug Administration ("FDA") for the new optimised international Phase 3 study, the FDA has now responded."

It says the submission was made as notified by Imm on 27th July 2020 and "...the FDA has NOW responded." (emphasis added).

Seems clear to me that following the SPA request the response was only just received. The RNS states submission has been accepted and the Type A meeting is to discuss the matters set out in the RNS.

Hi everyone

Hope you are all well.

I've just bought a small holding in Equals Group at 29.5p. Looks really cheap on forecast p/e of about 5. It's a recovery play on the travel sector if you think travel will open up next year. Other recovery shares have gone up a lot but this one has not yet.

Let me know what you think. There have been recent director buys as well.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/truspine-technologies-stands-up-to-scrutiny/

I think it might be because there was some mention that covid will have damaged lungs and so a pressing need for the imaging/drug combination.

However, the case and need for Polarean' imaging solution was made out before covid even started. The market opportunity is still the same and massive with or without covid.

Covid may however allow fast tracking of the review.

But as you point out we are not a covid play.

Hi Grace83

I've noticed when I went back to the article posted by Hunsen yesterday which is this one:

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/featurecounting-the-cost-of-failure-in-drug-development-5813046/

that the 50% approval rate Hunsen mentions is for phase 3 trial results - ie. whether the trials are a success or failure. This is the wrong percentage to use in our case and it seems no one picked up this point on this board or brought it to Hunsen's attention yesterday! (including me). This is the completely wrong percentage to use for our purposes. I think where the confusion may have arisen from is that Hunsen was looking at the headline 2018 results for the p3 and the perceived failure. However, things have moved on since then and the EMA were happy to accept a new NDA on the 2018 p3 trial and there was no need to repeat it. It is therefore incorrect to use a 50% failure rate for Dnl as that is for companies who don't get past p3 and fail to lodge a NDA. The correct figures to ascertain therefore are - what are the percentages of NDAs to the EMA and FDA that get approved or rejected?

There is data out there giving this information and the approval rates for NDAs have remained high - 84% on initial submission and higher on re-examination according to this link where it compares Fda and Ema approval rates which are almost the same:

https://ascpt.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cpt.1565

"Both agencies approved 84% (90/107) of the applications and both had initial negative outcomes (nonapproval or withdrawal) for 4% (4/107)."

"Final concordant and discordant regulatory outcomes
Further to the above resubmissions and reexaminations of applications, we compared final regulatory outcomes. If an application was not resubmitted/reexamined by an agency, the initial outcome was also considered to be the final outcome. By this accounting, the proportions of applications finally approved by the EMA and the FDA were similar (93% and 92%, respectively)."

Here is a more recent link to the EMA (which is what we are concerned with for the time being) where the percentage of approved drugs is very high - 66 approved and 4 refusals so that's about a 94% approval rate according to my calculations of applications made!

https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/article/110598/summarising-2019-a-year-of-firsts-for-the-ema/amp/

"According to the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA’s) Human medicines: highlights of 2019 report, the regulatory body granted 66 positive opinions for medications last year.

2019 saw the agency move forward in its goal to advance the availability and range of human medicines. Overall, the EMA reports that 30 new active substances were approved, while only four negative opinions were found after regulatory submission."

So in effect most NDAs are approved. This makes sense if a p3 is successful or has been accepted then most drugs should be approved that's what the trial is there for!

Thanks to Golden Prospect on the ADVFN board for finding this positive write up:

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/truspine-technologies-stands-up-to-scrutiny/

Hi Hunsen
I think it could be something to do with what you say sector rotation. So a lot of biotechs are down from their peaks and not just dnl.

However, long term share prices follow business progress or more accurately earnings. Which other biotechs on Aim are generating revenues from sales and will break even in the next couple of years?

I've always been a stock picker and I still have faith in the company and expect it to move forward over the medium to long term. Investors will return to pick the stars in a sector even if the sector as a whole has fallen out of favour.

I was watching this video from Justin Waite and he does post some good advice. In one of his recent videos from a few weeks ago, I think he says something like he is up 50 times from when his portfolio started (can't remember exactly when that was but maybe 15 years ago? I will need to check again what he says). So he is an investor worth listening to.

The video is relevant here because it covers when someone should sell. Here's a link which may be of use to people:

https://youtu.be/nM9_0cp7F-w

The podcast was from a couple of traders who are into momentum investing - so in and out and chasing stocks like Tesla and the big tech stocks in the US. Nothing wrong with that style of trading. But it requires a skill set to make money with that approach. Don't really know the relevance to our company of the podcast other than them mentioning it and saying they know very little about it. The one presenter assumed their was some negative news etc. for the share price drop in 2018 - he could have at least checked what caused it as he was talking about it, quite a lazy approach to the podcast presentation.

They openly said they know very little about the company. I thought the comment by the one presenter was actually positive when he said that he didn't think the share price reflected the fundamentals of the company.

He then went on to talk favourably about 4D Pharma which has no approved drugs or any in phase 3 as far as I know and its share price has nearly halved from its peak.

Hi Albinio74

Thanks. Just wanted to create some balance after Hunsen's posting.

We all know the risks of investing in biotechs. However, I know over the long term I am very unlikely to lose money here with Alkindi sales increasing every year. Japan is a major market so if that comes through it's derisked even further.

The annual report mentions China as well - the company has kept this potential new market low key in rns' but the annual report mentions that China:

"China
Diurnal is exploring the potential market opportunity for Alkindi® in China, in light of the recent focus of Chinese health authorities on rare diseases, including
chronic paediatric diseases."

I don't believe any forecasts have included the Chinese market so further surprises to earnings forecasts possible.