Member Info for Badger99

I'm still wondering whether the last team to quit got declared the winner and kept the trophy :-)

Anyone other than Art sent in any Q's for BL and Co?

Hi ART - also a team in red in the northwest, about 35 miles to the west of Salford. Glad the nonsense has been kicked into touch. I fear it will return though.

Meant to post this earlier in the week to this thread but got distracted by the Super League nonsense my team was getting involved in. Given O2B’s apt post below, it hasn’t dated.
---------------------
It’s definitely going to be a patience game. its always been a lth share and doesn't attract the 'get rich tomorrow, put the savings on an exploration drill' type or '10 bags by sunset' P&D clowns. It’s a growth share which will move based on sustained performance in Egypt and evidence that this is reaching the bottom line. Individual Egypt wells are unlikely to move the dial significantly as well sizes and NPVs per well are relatively small. We also have limited (though increasing) 2P reserves which drives the current SP valuation.

Over time, with current oil prices and sustained flow rates, we'll have a business with significant annual profits and cash to grow further, either organically or by M&A/farm-in. It won't happen overnight, the Contractor Group are learning more about the Egyptian acreage each day and rightly being cautious before committing capital and we /the market only get financials twice a year (unless BL changes tack) to track progress with this forecast growth.

As for the SP and broker valuations. I take very little notice of broker notes other than to challenge the build up of the NPV valuations per project/asset. The Cenkos/Optiva NPV figures for the Egypt 2P reserves i broadly agree with, however given most of our assets are likely to be flipped - Zeta, Maria, Italy, Waddock X - then valuations based on future producing assets are way out. As for Jamaica, there's obviously plenty of potential upside but it’s all on the farm-down deal, can we get a carry or not? How do you currently value that? The market currently doesn't know how to and hasn't done since we acquired our initial licence stake from TLW a few years ago.

As for trading patterns, i leave that to those with an interrogative eye (hat tip to levi, ART and others) - Possibly allied to this, the major shareholders list was updated last week (12/4) and there have been some chunky swings, both +/-. The sum of the big hitters + Mgmt is c.71% of total shares, my last screenprint from Jan’21 was c.73%.

GingerHippo – good to see you posting and thanks for your figs on this thread and last week. Fwiw, I agree with your estimate for 2021 of c.£10m ($14m) profit for 2021 assuming they can maintain an average 3k boepd over the year and there are no accounting oddities around the loan, any impairments etc. Personally i think your estimate for 2020 is a bit high - i have FY20 at around $3.5m-$4m, but i'll be v happy to be wrong if your fig comes in on Monday. ATB

Toephur - you are ignoring the production sharing contract with the Egyptian state- UOG retains 42.5% of each $1 of revenue, so you'll want to reset your calcs. We don't make $60+ netbacks per barrel as you are inferring.
Yes there's a disconnect but not as big as you are currently thinking

itisagame not itsagame, sorry

itsagame - the last update from PVE (end of Jan) was for final approvals by end of Q1, with a c. 6 month timeline to first gas post approvals, so v late Q3 / start Q4'21 for 1st gas at the earliest....
BL in interviews now just refers to production being in '2021' rather than a set quarter

mcbride.c - I personally would use that $2.8m to clear a chunk of that $4.8m debt...opinions? (05/03/21)
..............................................................................................................................................................................................................
A rather belated reply, reading through the posts from the past few days in one go..
The loan repayments are underpinned via the hedge / commodity swap and with oil at $60+ pb is easily manageable within the Co's monthly cashflows. Even if they could pay down part of the loan, which is doubtful given the set arrangements in place, there's no real benefit financially from doing so given how they can use the Hibiscus cash to give a better return than any saving in funding costs. For example, for an additional low risk well in Egypt in H2 you are looking at a capex of c.$1m-$1.25m cost to UOG and a payback of 6-7 months based on a (hopefully) conservative flow rate of 300bopd net to UOG at $60 p/b less the PSC and opex. The returns are very good.
Alternatively, they can keep it in the pot for 2022 - Egypt drilling, Italian seismic, Maria technical work, Zeta, M&A/Farm-in etc.... or earmark it for Jamaica if they are unable to farm down for a 100% free carry (Personally hoping they don't spend their cash on the latter).
ATB

The OGA appears to have thrown a curveball at Hibiscus regarding the Marigold FDP. They've requested Hibiscus seek to work with Ithaca Energy in the next door block to propose a common development for both the Marigold field and Ithaca's block, if feasible.
Presumably lots of zoom calls between various technical / finance / commercial teams have been taking place recently. Review expected to conclude on 26/2 with an announcement thereafter.

Page 5 on the link below of interest
https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=111917&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

The Ithaca block (15/18b) contains the Yeoman discovery - between Marigold and Crown on our slightly out of date diagram on the website
https://www.uogplc.com/assets/p2480-licence-offshore-uk-zeta/

Hibiscus’ business update today raises a couple of questions:
1. If Hibiscus / Ithaca can justify separate developments, then The FDP submitted by Hibiscus in Dec’20 was only for Phase 1 of the Marigold Cluster, made up of 3 wells on the Marigold Field… so Crown potentially was excluded and will only be included in a later FDP as a future Phase (?). Under the terms of the SPA, excluding Crown from the FDP submitted gives Hibiscus 2 choices, either pay the c.$3m outstanding or return the Crown licence to UOG.
2. If they rework the FDP for a combined Hibiscus/Ithaca solution, a, how long will the delay be before the Crown payment to UOG is made and b, will it again be a phased FDP approach?

Hopefully we'll get some clarity on the route forward next week from Hibiscus. If not, it’s a question for the next Investor Call which I’d guess would be soon after ASH-3 testing is complete and RNS’d.

Fwiw, I’m not expecting the Crown licence to be returned. Hibiscus are fully behind the programme and the current development model is pretty clear – start with the Marigold field and then add the other ‘stranded discoveries’ – Sunflower, Crown etc - as additional tiebacks in a phased approach.

If there is a further delay to the Crown payment, It shouldn’t impact on this years capex spend (Egypt/Italy) which is v good.

Crizmo - good question.
The consortium went over the 10k bopd threshold last summer - at 30/6/20 net production to UOG was 2,716 boepd. Gas was c.340 boepd then, so oil c.2,376 bopd net. Gross 2,376/.22 = 10,800 bopd.
With the drop in production in H2'20 they appear to have moved just back under the threshold currently so It'll depend on the contract clause re the bonus payment (c.$300k by UOG) – is it based on sustained production over x weeks/months or triggered by a daily ops report?
If (touchwood) ASH-3 matches ASH-2 they’ll be back over the threshold again

Brian on Proactive......
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/935503/united-oil--gas--look-forward-to-drilling-well--at-the-abu-sennan-project-in-egypt-935503.html

The OGA publish a list of new offshore FDP consents here by the look of it, so worth keeping an eye on - it shows the IOG FDP from earlier in the year as the most recent on the spreadsheet so appears up to date. I haven't found where you can read the details of the FDP yet though
https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/data-centre/data-downloads-and-publications/field-data/

Hi gkb47, hope alls well. Three milestones per your post, we are approaching the second
1. The $1m (gross) Sales & Purchase agreement (SPA) signature milestone was achieved in 2019 and paid by Hibiscus ;
2. The $3m (gross) milestone is payable within 7 days from when Hibiscus receives FDP approval for their Marigold development including Crown from the OGA. Originally forecast to be by end Dec'20 and according to DQ on the last investor call, all still on course. Fwiw, I'm a bit sceptical as from reading Hibiscus' presentations during 2020, project timelines have moved slightly eastwards due to Covid etc
If for some reason FDP isn't achieved or, if the FDP submitted excluded Crown then Hibiscus can either pay the $3m or return the licence to United/Swift.
3. Final milestone of $1m (gross) payable via a royalty scheme once Crown has commenced production - details undisclosed as far as i know
Hope that helps

Latest guidance for EIA decree and production concession Q1'21
PVE's latest quarterly report..
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02303097-6A1005037?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

We seem to have the mystery total option number generator active again
Last disclosed total options (June'20) 37.6m + c.1.5m RNS'd today doesn't equal 46.8m
The 37.6m includes c.8m which haven't been disclosed, so that'll be c.16m mystery options, assuming its not a screw up
Confused dot com

Cheers Rubey, thanks

Brian on Proactive..
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/930564/united-oil--gas-reports-positive-first-half-with-egypt-business-catalyst-for-growth-930564.html

gkb47 - Hope alls well. For interest, Po Valley Energy were recently asked a number of questions by the ASX about its health, in their response they stated 'final approval to be granted on Selva by October', 'funding plans by December'. So should be close to news. I think i put the link on here last month but attached below for reference - tab down to answer 1c.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200819/pdf/44lnf2rfq711tq.pdf

levi - like you v interested in the cash position now and by the end of the year, more so than the P&L tbh - its why i'm frustrated i can't see our opening Egypt figs in the RKH's accounts. We'll have a line in the sand next week

Nodding along with that Bebeto, my view has always been long term here and hasn't changed.
Some will expect more from the interims as they haven't grasped the PSC and tbh it was presented pretty badly in the readmission docs and afterwards. UOG have always steered focus to the '$6.50 per barrel' and not the elephant sat next to it.
Have a good weekend

Ah come on levi, that £552 buy was definitely yours :-)

Personally not expecting anything remotely seismic (I'll avoid the t word) in the interim P&L and seemingly nor does the market. Small profit for 4 months of Egypt less 6 months G&A, with a much improved H2 assuming nothing kicks the oil price in the nuts. My calcs are v similar to Cenkos' for the year (c.$5m PBT) but are for 12 months so include Jan/Feb'20 which go to the balance sheet (which is a shame as EGPC paid an average of c$56/bl per RKH's interims) . If UOG group makes c.$5m PBT in 2020 based on 10 months of Egypt i'd be delighted.

Interested to see how BL/DQ explain/present the 14 months pre completion + what forward guidance they are prepared to give on figs as BL tends to be quite guarded.

Egypt Cash - Especially interested in how much we inherited post the acquisition adjustments + the trading post Jan'19. RKH have made it very opaque in their accounts unfortunately. I have a figure in mind but could be miles out.

We are also due an ops update on El-Sam5/ASH gas + future Egypt plans which I presume would be weaved into the same RNS as the interims. Investor call next week maybe?

Have a good weekend folks

Bebeto - Interim accounts deadline is c.o.p 30th Sept, so they have a few days yet