Member Info for Babboy

the last two years after annual results this share has gone over 350. two years ago it approached 400. so much has happened that is positive since including the commitment to pay a dividend. type 31 is actually quite small beer in the overall mix. the mod need bab**** as a competitor to bae which means they know they need to make an appropriate margin. things happen behind closed doors that never reach the light of day.

Results 20 July

while defence spending is not going up the war in ukraine was met by bab**** being much better aligned with the customer and therefore more likely to prosper. also they have exited large proportions of the loss making, capital intensive helicopter business which in today’s world would have come under interest rate pressure. they are about where they were when i left 10 years ago. the share price was £12.50. i think we can realistically hope for £5 a share price in the next 18 months.

Would not believe anything related to North Korea. Defence spend has not been increased since the start of the Ukraine conflict in real terms. Message from MOD is do more with same. Probably can’t last though. £4 on the horizon but it will need some evidence that Bab**** benefiting from greater asset activity.

I think there is a general lack of faith in the stock after investors took a battering. I sold most my holdings around the high this week as a fall always seems to follow a rise to circa 370. I believe that a strong half year announcement will start pushing the stock to 400-500 but would not be surprised to see a drop to circa 300 on low trading in the mean time. They have strong leadership and a double digit margin business is in there.

There are bigger issues in front of us than the Bab share price. This note is designed to provide some understanding of how this company may benefit from an increase in UK readiness and asset utilisation . UK defence is continually budget constrained. Vehicles ships and air platforms often remain ‘parked up’ to reduce operational and maintenance costs. To improve readiness there needs to be an investment in maintenance and support which Bab are embedded in. This is particularly true in Marine where Bab are a major player in through life support. They also train the pilots from initial contact with a plane to fast jets. In the Land environment they would have a lead role in the refurbishment and support of armoured vehicles. If we are to be less reliant on Russian gas then Nuclear and North Sea exploitation become more important. The oil price rise will increase the utilisation of helicopter assets which will make this problem business less of a drag and increase it’s divestment value. There are people more wise and informed than me who take these things into consideration. Hence the general uplift in defence shares. Let’s hope those children return to there homes shortly and we can help rebuild their country and keep them safer in the future.

Clued provides a balanced view. Large mistakes have been made and this is an obvious recovery play being driven by fiscal minded individuals. I think we can expect one more significant disposal in Aerospace which will draw a line under a business Steve88 quite rightly comments on. In summary Bab**** can justify a higher share price purely on their position in Marine and Nuclear. The rest is frankly noise. I would expect them to hit plan this year but inflation on fixed price contracts will impact margin. I'm holding until December 2022.

I found it just after I posted. Apologies. People assume that all these Directors are rich and would have quite considerable means. This individual will have worked his way up through the ranks and his wife might have wanted a new kitchen. I do take your point though.

Who sold at 379? The Chair Lady has been consistently buying all the way down. The messaging will be interesting 7 December. Will it be more upbeat? I am still of the view that they will wait until the clarity of year end before becoming more expansive and open about their future plans and the potential for dividends. If they divest more than the £400 Million target, save more than £50 Million in head count reductions, benefit from additional spend in the UK, Australia and Canada then £5 SP is well within reach.

It looks like Frazer Nash completed in October after the half year. So I assume the cash will be in the second half.

No bad news from this conservative group of leaders is a positive. On expectation for end of year probably means they are comfortable about the year. Their COVID costs have reduced as they are no longer doing site testing. Increased revenue is a good reversal of a negative trend and will impact margins going forward. They will have had enabling costs for exits which will be a one off drain on cost but good news going forward. Other thoughts ?

This would have been a must retain/win for Bab****. I would have expected them to have protected margins while seeking the investment required in these facilities to drive greater productivity. This event will pep the order book up for the half year review. Dividends will follow when the balance sheet is healthier and cash projections look predictable. The leadership have a mid to long term play that has a good chance of success.

I would agree with this. On the road to recovery with a conservative board who people should expect to underplay the potential until they have compelling evidence of success. Believe it has a chance of £5 in May 2022. Based on solid result, stronger forecasts and communication on future dividends.

More to come.

Perhaps hold until Government approves disposal of helicopter business. Then maybe some profit taking and stop losses to avoid the bad taste if there is a reversal. I'm tempted to see if it gets back to circa £5. Have fun with your profits.

THIS is a great disposal. Never really been part of Babcoxk. Good business but running out of steam. The next 6 months is going to be an interesting watch. £5 May 2022 very possible. This team is going to under promise and over deliver in the mid term.

That would be an interesting development. They are bound to have talked together. £4?

Could someone explain the £2 Million + of buys in late trading today.

This is going to be a play that requires patience. It's going to take till May 2022 for fog to clear. Few bumps in the road to come.

I think your buy shout was pretty good. Maybe inevitable that the price dropped 10 percent plus while the nervous took some profits. It's going to take 18 months for the new team to regain the confidence of analysts and fund managers. Then north of £5 would be a likely outcome. Expect this team to under commit then over deliver in the short to medium term. Better times ahead.