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Thanks fatherelmer for the info and carbonix for the estimates. So, it looks like in Jan we are getting almost 2,000 pax per day. Business model seems a lot more robust now for gradual expansion, I’m confident these numbers will grow. Still not sure why these figures are not published on a monthly basis like other airlines on the LSE. Transparency would make fastjet a much more investible stock.
996 flights! Not bad! Anyone know the passenger config of fastjet’s Embraer aircraft? Could get a rough idea of seats flown, and with an educated guess of load factor an indication of monthly passenger numbers. Hopefully good load factors now the aircraft are smaller and as indicated by fjetcrazy.
There seem to be some on here who have a finger on the pulse when it comes to the current schedule and day to day operations. Could I ask if anyone has a rough idea of the monthly passenger seats available, and maybe even an educated guess on load factor? To put in perspective, during the first six months of 2017 there were was on average 69,073 seats available per month with an average load factor of 65.35%. Average number of passengers each month was 45,139. (source: 2017 interim results)
Disruption will happen especially with small fleets (if it didn’t I’d be concerned about the safety culture in the airline). Yes, it’s important how the airline in general handles disruption when there are aircraft out of service etc, but I’d be hard pressed to see how this could be referred to as a “disaster”. Every airline will suffer from disruption, I doubt whatever is going on at the moment will have any significant effect on fastjet. Look forward to hearing how the financials are for fastjet, I hope an update isn’t too far away.
Fjetcrazy, I have to agree, it would be reassuring to get an update. For those with more regulatory knowledge than myself, would I be correct in saying that Nico would have to inform shareholders as soon as he was aware that fastjet would not be able to achieve cash flow break even this quarter if that were to be the case? Always one for transparency, we need monthly pax stats published, removing them was one of the methods Ed used to deceive shareholders.
Could it just be a couple of pairs of transactions where the shares were sold and bought back at same price. I don’t know how or why this would be done, just speculating as there were two pairs of trades for identical numbers of shares. Maybe someone more knowledgeable in these matters will have some idea what was going on here. I know markets don’t like uncertainty, however, a relief that political situation in Zimbabwe seems to be turning out ok, hopefully Mugabe will be gone by tomorrow afternoon. With him out the way the economy will improve in leaps and bounds, fastjet will have a head start in the aviation sector. About time political events moved in our favour for a change. Would dread to think how the economy would fare under Grace Mugabe....
First time I’ve read fastjet results that have not been worse than expected. For me the main thing is that they are still on track to “achieve a cashflow break-even position for the final quarter of 2017” Passenger numbers averaging 45,139 per month which is significantly lower than a couple of years ago, however I expect to keep climbing. Average load factor of 65% which is relatively poor, however I would expect load factor is currently higher as these average figures include beginning of year when most flights were on A319. Share price now up 36% so far this year. There must now be plenty of investors sitting on a healthy profit - look forward to some more rises next week!
I probably won’t get to see them until they’ve been out for a few hours as I’ll be working. However, I’m remaining hopeful that Nico can deliver. Personally, I’ll be judging him on being able to deliver on his repeated assertion “fastjet aims to achieve a cashflow break-even position for the final quarter of 2017” - there should be a reference to this one way or another in the results. Also need to see significantly reduced costs. Will be interesting to see passenger numbers and see how they compare to the last couple of years prior to his restructuring and fleet change. I’m still disappointed that Nico hasn’t taken the decision to release passenger numbers on a monthly basis, however, all will be laid bare later today!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-19/zimbabwe-south-africa-ground-flights-in-dispute-over-permits Commit have cancelled their flights also - worried that any SA airline may have their aircraft impounded in Zimbabwe. Also "SAA has activated recovery plans with every effort being made to assist hundreds of stranded passengers". I assume they every effort would therefore include purchasing Fastjet seats. However, as they are probably hoping that the dispute will be resolved, I can't see them doing that more than a day or so in advance. Finally, who said that the algorithm being used before is still not currently in use? It could well be! I guess these algorithms could respond to surges in demand as opposed to just simply how many seats are left.
Hillwi, business is business. The majority of the bookings that are being made at these prices are not going to be by regular fastjetters. It is going to be for Air Zimbabwe and SAA passengers. And at that, there is a good chance that their airline/insurance company are rebooking on their behalf. I don't think we will be losing any customers over this. On the contrary, at these prices we could maybe afford some expansion on this route or elsewhere and thus be able to serve even more passengers.
I would say that demand does justify extra sectors to be added. These flights are selling quickly at $300-$400 per sector. I imagine that by end of the working day on Monday most sectors over next couple of weeks will have fully sold out unless the situation with Air Zimbabwe and SAA is resolved. I gather from those at recent AGM that some of the board occasionally look at this chat forum. Here is another request for Nico to reintroduce monthly passenger statistics.
Looks like Air Zimbabwe have been banned from South Africa and that SAA are about to get a reciprocal ban from Zimbabwe. Potentially a very significant development that could boost fastjet's revenue until the following is resolved http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-africa-byo-116185.html
Happy Birthday Marksman! Looks like something is happening here at long last. Look forward to some more rises, still sitting on a significant loss, but that's gradually being eroded away. Three things that could further boost the share price in the short term. An announcement on expansion "in the process of evaluating expansion options to further geographies and looks forward to making further announcements in due course" - trading statement 30th June. RNS detailing director share buys. H1 results. Will still obviously be a loss but could be the smallest half yearly loss to date and show evidence that fastjet has financially turned the corner with a reaffirmation of break even by end of this year.
The actual trades are currently being bought/sold at 20.7p/20.0p. Both Google and Yahoo (provider of prices in the standard ITunes stock App) have been showing incorrect prices for fastjet for a couple of weeks now. I also have no idea why. However, there seems a definite upward trend of the fastjet shareprice at the moment.
There will no doubt be press coverage over the weekend - e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/30/fastjet-snaps-ownership-brand-name-2m-stelios-deal/ Was a pleasant surprise to check share prices at the end of the week to see Fastjet up over 18%, and on decent volumes of trading too (about £100k today) No surprise to see Nuri dwelling of the distant past. This share price is up over 17% this year. A healthy return for any investors over that last six months. Mistakes were made by the old regime. Fastjet is now a different entity with Solenta backing it. Gone are the days of Fly540 and Ed Winter. Onwards and upwards from here. I predict some health buying and further share price rise at the beginning of the week as a result of today's announcements!
Finally some positive developments. Hopefully the first of many. Been patiently awaiting to find out the expansion plans with regards to the Solenta set up. Seems like Nico has a good team together and I'm still, as always, optimistic.
87% load factor would be VERY challenging to achieve, however, I like the ambition. As I've said several times before, I really think Nico should start publishing monthly pax stats. I can understand why he would not wish to have done so during the restructuring, however, this is nearly complete and would give some insight to shareholders as to how fastjet is performing. Hopefully not too long until H1 results published, will be disappointing if they come out at the end of Sept! Not much left in the way of cash reserves, only a few months if the current operation conditions persist. However, with Solenta behind fastjet, I wholeheartedly disagree that fastjet is finished. Yes, high risk of further dilution later in the year, but still optimistic that this airline can succeed in the long term!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39979814 Worth a read, the second half of the article "Why the African aviation business has not taken off"
We will have the full picture soon. 2016 results due out soon followed about three months later by H1 results. I do agree that investors are somewhat in the dark, however, this is a better situation than being misled by Ed Winter with RNS after RNS making outrageous overly optimistic claims. Nico has claimed that he expects fastjet to reach cash flow break even by Q4 this year (Placing RNS on 5th Jan). It will be interesting to read if he is still on target to achieve this. Ever since Ed withdrew the monthly passenger stats to hide his shortcomings from investors (although he claimed it was to hide tge stats from the competition), I've been an advocate for their reintroduction. Now that there seems to be some stabilisation and it looks like fastjet will grow from here onwards, I hope that Nico will reintroduce these monthly figures.
An incredibly racist article! What does the colour of the pilot's skin have to do with his decision about uncontrollable children. Every time the article refers to the pilot it refers to his race. For the author to accuse the pilot of making the decision based on the race of the children without the slightest shred of evidence is outrageous. I'm almost certain that his decision will have been based purely on grounds of safety. (Another very obvious sign of racist intent by the author is his reference to Rhodesia which has no relevance to the incident whatsoever)