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Bigbadbaz.
I am not blaming Ofcom, Corbyn, Boris, communists, capitalists, Brexit, Trump, Putin. Marketmakers, Deutsche Telecom, Deutsche Bank, EU, CIA, MI5, Moisad and Lamtree.
Yes I made a bad mistake but at least I am admitting it and I am not making silly excuses for my very bad judgment.
"In all honesty, BT's debt isn't huge, roughly half of Vodafone's."
To quote (Dickens's) Wilkins Micawber "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
Vodafone, capitalisation = £41 billion, net debt = £31 billion results in happiness and bliss.
BT, capitalisation = £15 billion, net debt = £18.3 billion results in misery and disaster.
Even taking into account inflation I would humbly suggest that 3.3 billion pounds is somewhat more then sixpence
" this share does seem manipulated".
Manipulated for 5 years?. I think its because of the level of debt. BT is now capitalised at just over £15 billion and had debts of £18.347 billion. Their credit rating was BBB when the company was capitalised at £19 billion. One can only speculate what the credit rating will be next time. BT is unlikely to go bust but any future investment is going to be a real challenge.
Well just two weeks ago when the share price was 172.5 you all thought I was crazy in suggesting that BT would hit a new low in February.
I guess I was being charitable in saying they would only hit 159.
Deutsche Bank the only one besides lamtree who have in the past correctly forecast BT's share price are now predicting 146!!! down from 157. I really need to rethink my decision about topping up at 150!!!
I agree that both BT and VOD have a lot of positives. I am just saying that the debt mountains is a major issue of concern.
"profit after tax has been increasing even though revenue has been dropping" Revenue dropping should also not be under estimated. With the increased competition and expected sky/virgin tie up will surely have a negative effect on profit margins.
"OMFG - Fevertree. - you have bought a share in a downtrend. A former market maker darling which was ludicrously overvalued."
Looking at Fevertree's performance since I bought them it would seem my intuition sometimes works. I guess its still early days.
As I have declared numerous times on here my financial knowledge is limited and I use my intuition which in the past has on balance worked for me. I have always believed that whenever a companies debt exceeds its capitalisation it should ring alarm bells. For those who are looking for a credible reason for BT's share price fall. There are sum real worrying trends which do not seem to be getting enough attention. BT is now capitalised at under £16 billion. BT's net debt last year was £18.347 billion and is rising. Their long term credit ratings also on a downward trend .
Long term BT credit ratings | Moody's Baa2 | S&P BBB | Fitch BBB.
I do not have a crystal ball. 6 months ago the market was suggesting 25%. Personally I think it will be between 30-40%. Fleccy. I think your right about not being overweight in telecoms. I also bought Royal Dutch yesterday (Monday). I bought the B shares. I have never understood the difference between the A and B shares
That BT is in the doldrums is a fact. In my opinion there are 4 reasons 1) DT's 12.6% holding. 2)Pension concerns 3) A concern that debt might increase to dangerous levels, 4) A perception that BT is losing market share.
Toff,
What utter rubbish. You are just suggesting this is some sort of Market Maker conspiracy in order to cover up your very poor judgment in investing in BT. Yes MM's can artificially effect a share price over a relative short period but never over a 5 year period. Who else are you going to blame. The real reason is the markets fear of future debt going out of control.
BOBetts,
I will readily admit that I don't have a clue. And when I was suggesting that BT at 265 was a strong sell. I never dreamt that it would reach its present levels. Everyone is just having a go at me is because I got it right. I do think that it is now near its low but I fully agree that there are much better bets out there.
NDN00
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/902396/bt-shares--unlikely-to-re-rate-amid-uncertainty--says-ubs-902396.html
There have been many recent reports in the financial press raising concerns about BT's ability of maintaining its market share. They recently lost Virgin and with increasing competition its just going to happen.
Marcus,
I think its a bit to early to suggest that the fall in BT has tapered off. The FTSE has risen today 1.55% and BT has still fallen. I accept that with the price being so low one might be tempted to invest now. I myself made that calculation 2 weeks ago and bought £3000 worth at 174.4 but it has still continued to fall sharply. If I was minded to invest I would first wait for the dividend cut before jumping in. I personally do not think they will go bust but it seems likely that debt will increase which can further depress the share price.
Fleccy, allybally, ToffAppleton1,
Ignore me and Lamtree at your peril.
Guys grow up. Why on earth am I spoiler is it just because I had got it spot on. To accuse us of telling you what already already knows is not true. When the shareprice was £3 I was warning people of what was lying ahead. In my vocabulary that is called foresight. I will explain to you what hindsight is. With the benefit of hindsight would you all not have been better of listening to me and Lamtree rather then being abusive.
For the record I do not believe that BT will go bankrupt. I just believe that BT are not going anywhere and will continue to under perform. There are just much better opportunities out there. I also believe that there will be a significant cut in the dividend in the not too distant future.
Here is new factual information from 11.15 am 04/02/20. These are the FACTS and not guffaw I will leave it you and other to give the reasons and rationale and explain why next week next month next year next decade will be different . As far as I am concerned I am sticking with the FACTS as they speak loudest.
1 week
-4.99%
1 month
-16.69%
3 months
-19.38%
1 year
-28.98%
2 years
-36.2%
3 years
-46.48%
5 years
-61.22%
"some posters may act on scare comments made by some posters on this board and others."
I agree that no one should make any investment decisions based on what people say on bulletin boards.
You seem to suggest that your concern is for people who might have been scared to buy BT at £3, 275, 250, 225, £2 or 175.
I am rather more concerned of the many punters who probably bought at those ridiculous prices as a result of the comments of the vast majority of posters on this BB. To every one of mine or Lamtrees suggestion of caution there have been tens suggesting that BT at £3 or £2 was the bargain of the century.