Thank you Nige. Will discount TW and consider PSN or RDW as the other options then.
Unfortunately the actual share price influences me to some degree - somewhere around the TW mark far more entertaining to watch than overblown PSN.
Trading not as brutal as shorting but a compromise. I have needed to trade my best shares to try and make up for some losses on the munters of which there are way too many. Recent trades on BDEV have not made me very much. Sold at £6.35 and £6.95(one missed £6.95) and back in at £6.50 and £6.57. Very small profit really but very happy considering the position of the share price now and additional comfort with my overweight position restored.
It could be a rocky ride but general intention is to stick.
ATB
I was mindful of Nige's advice and looking to get back in. Just needed the market drop as a contrarian prompt. Dropped way further than I though it would to 2 month lows, ironically initially resisted by BDEV. We both did OK but even on the day could have got in at £6.47.
Should really also look at another housebuilder but none of them particularly appeal. Perhaps TW if it drops below £1.70.
At the moment my other big holding Aviva is doing it's best to offset BDEV. gains. The market hates AV. but look at the dividend payouts for many years.
You like my expression sunburn - did you see what I did there.
It worries me that you sold at the right time the other day, not quite £6.95 but still a good price.
The chances of you picking the correct moment twice are remote but tempted to join you on a purchase today.
'With due respect you can do what you like with your ticks!'
I would do John but you are probably a little too far away from me:-)
No, the trade appeared to be 4 x 250k, executed at slightly different times but who knows, it was a good price anyway.
I can get an indicative price on 1 million to buy, don't have that many to sell.
This is difficult. As an overweight holder of BDEV. looking to buy more and waiting for the share price to drop a little more before purchase. Market down 1.2% and this beauty is up, along with most other housebuilders, Redrow being the exception at the moment. A bad day for resources but not Brexit it seems. Trump is blamed for most things bad but the DOW has flirted with record highs recently and I struggle to see how his tenure is adversely impacting the stockmarket over here. We seem to have our own well versed methods of screwing things up.
Well I've ticked it up John, assuming those were your trades.
Clearly over exposed if you have doubts.
Those trades ducked the price trend and seemed to beat the spread; one could almost consider them buys at that level
The biggest moan I have about AAU is the dire trading conditions. Someone offloaded first thing - 451,078 shares sold for 2.1447p. This was covered by a series of purchases withing 8 minutes with prices from 2.346p - 2.4p. This represents are markup.........or markdown of up to nearly 12%!
How can that possibly be justified?
Interactive give an indicative price to sell but a firm price to buy off limit.
All appears rather shabby and way to much money lost to share buyers/sellers in the transaction.
Anyone justify explain what appears to be a money making farce for the equivalent of coin clippers to me please?
johnpwh - I have just been quoted 2.3p to sell 250,000 which is a general improvement on a week ago. Best estimate to sell was a momentary 2.6p. If this is getting to you, still a chance to make some money(relatively speaking) and act on your hunch - do it!
Noel why don't you short this? Do it, let us know your position and then we can congratulate you on your good judgment or............
Hi Nige
It seems you have committed yourself to some serious financial adjustments in the building sector today.
I have missed a couple of my personal triggers to buy/sell recently but still have in mind your theories in this sector. Diffcult for me to move seamlessly between the two but hoping for acceptable opportunities to increase exposure in this sector before a GE blows the gaff.
'Great RNS but that’s it- no more news for a while. Still happy with AAU even if the price settles back in the teens for a few months.'
I don't think it will do that unless the deal collapses. On that note can anyone report when this deal will be confirmed/rejected?
My issue with this share is the absence of opportunity to trade. Spread so large and a large number of very small trades making it appear Mickey Mouse.
True to form Royal Mail kicks a market when it is down.
I hate this company and that comes from a long term Royal Mail share holder who gets on very well with the local post people.
Can you remember all the benefit scrounging cretins demanding to know why RM was sold off cheap and looking for extra benefits to compensate.................or they would have if they could be arsed but fronted by quality attention seeking newspaper articles in the Daily Mirror, etc. I wonder if these lowlife are interested in supporting my capital losses on this munter.
Sad to see the infighting on here as there is no-one to blame except the company itself. I can back that up by failures in their general postal service as have a folder with many claims required for failed basic services over the last couple of years.
Why do I bother?............some sado masochistic lack of pleasure, I dunno.
Good luck all
Hi Nige
I remember using VBA in my second favourite job - PC support at Clarks shoes in about 1994. Developed some excel spreadsheets for users who helped me with the support. Quite intuitive from memory unlike the pure object orientated - did not get on particularly well with that.
Fencing was incredibly hard physical work, especially working with concrete posts. I did not do it to take short cuts. A lot of people think it is an easy job but in many ways more mentally challenging than programming.
Another reasonable day for BDEV but very bad for AV., another of my overweight shares.
Hi Nige
Now there's a coincidence but not really that much of a surprise to me to be honest.
legacy programmer PL1/IDMS, COBOL/IDMS. Finished in 2007 after 7 years as a contract AP at Jaguar Cars, Coventry.
I quit the office, bought a Cabstar truck and put fences up for over 4 years.
Interesting day on the market and BDEV share price. Possibility of a 3% swing.
ATB
Appreciate the information Nige.
Thanks for explaining what has worked for you and hopefully it will continue to do so.
I do a bit with Excel and was a programmer in a previous life so will do some research on the top five builders.
A bit reticent to buy at the moment as usually wait for a contrarian trigger. Will buy 3rd tranche back in BDEV if she drops below £6 but could be a bit of a wait. Resisting market pressure well at the moment.
ATB
Hi Nige
I am interested to hear that you have found a way of shuffling money within the sector to profit. From my limited appraisal of the it does seem that the prices move together or at least the movements sufficient to create marginal profit within the sector seem scarce. I'm going to spend more time looking at this, thank you.
Charts can teach us a lot but they miss out on the big events that really make a difference. On that basis I would be suspicious of hanging my hat on their reliability. Bdev had a 12 month price range of 430 - 702 = 65%. Huge money to be made buying and selling at the right time just within this small time period. I wonder how much of that and the correct timing was correlated to any chart.
The main issue for me with shorting aside from the very idea is the leveraged nature and compromising of PIs involved. I think people see the big companies shorting and consider they can do the same. Given the extra margins, charges and conditions PIs have to contend with I expect it is hard to consistently come out on top. Also surprises me how many shorters expect holders to put up with their negative comments on a share. Most that I have encountered are not subtle and quickly annoy the locals for good reason. Hopefully Liam will be an exception.
Unfortunately I have seen a lot of failure in the Stock Market. Safe bets like Banks, British Energy , Railtrack and Marconi disappearing. Recent heavy lossed on British Telecom, Centrica and Royal bloody Mail, etc. Who would have thought that banks could go bust? I had most of my savings in the Icelandic banks when they broke. Initially thought I had lost everything; now that is a life experience. My point is that anything can happen and in the recent past probably has but companies with cash and land are far less vulnerable. As you say lessons learnt with BDEV moving away from debt and into assets. From more than £8 to less than 80p and a way to go back up yet.
Talk of new build quality issues does not surprise me. To be honest If I were to judge building companies on my standards with regards to building I would not be invested.
Hi Nige
Thank you for your post, I appreciate it.
LSE only shows 5 year charts. I have just gone over to iii to see a historic price chart for BDEV that goes back a lot farther. I remember the days of £8 in 2005/6. I am sure holders at the time would remember only too well.
You definitely chose the right time to invest and a great sector to stay loyal to. I played around with mining companies before my first purchase in BDEV(June 2016) but since then done quite well with contrarian purchases that have proved timely. Technically over invested in this share/sector for most of the period since and no apology. As you point out the land bank and cash underpin this company in addition to it being in a sector that should never really crash. The way sentiment works does however make us question even the most solid investments and given previous experience, that is exactly the time to purchase.
Not interested in shorting but recognise it as a useful tool to make money if you have the brutish nature required. Liam coming on this forum is interesting and although it does not feel right I suppose a shorter making money seemingly the expense of holders is some positive out of a pure negative. I don't agree with his chart prediction though. The share may well drop to below £6 but below £5 will take the index to drop to <6500 in my opinion.
May your investments and judgement be kind to you.