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Yorkshirebred, you're an absolute genius.
Chilting, good to see some rational thinking.
This constant bombardment from a handful of voters trying to convince others to vote NO has just gone way too far. They're clutching at straws with far fetched possibilities on QIA or others saving us all, but it's now very quickly becoming clear that this offer looks to be it.
I have always been optimistic about this opportunity and have been very surprised that other parties aren't interested in picking up this project, but I'm now accepting the reality. I don't for a moment think the management had a sinister plan all along to shaft all the investors. They've put years of their life into this project and they're losing more than many on here can comprehend. They simply failed to raise the large amount of money required and that's it.
I suspect a number of the posters on here trying to encourage others to vote NO have either already sold or reduced to an insignificant amount, but are on here pushing this just to lay the booth into CF.
QIA won't in my opinion step in. They would have been approached as a potential anchor investor for the consortium deal and it's clear that they weren't interested in a play here.
When the BoD of any company warn that the company will most likely go into Administration, you wanna pay serious attention to that kind of announcement.
Neil, we could very well have an interesting situation unfolding before our eyes right now with the move being made by Polygon. They've very quickly taken a stake of ~10% and still going. I can't see them just being interested in possibly making 1 or 2 p on the shares. With $19B under management, there are a number of scenarios going through my mind.
IMO, the worst case is 5.5p because I can't see AAL pulling out. When I listened to their CEO's analyst call recently, it was clear that they're drooling over this opportunity.
Got to wonder what Polygon is up to. Interesting.......
Other interested parties have plenty of time and won't be revealed until they're ready to make their move.
I firmly believe that the only reason an announcement was made last week about the potential AA offer was because there was clearly a leak as we saw with the big jump in the shares price the day before and they were then legally required to make that early announcement. If that had not happened, we probably still wouldn't have heard about their offer yet.
Others that may be currently doing their due diligence will keep this very quiet. They don't need to reveal anything at all yet.
There are some on this BB that believe we are entitled to the full details of what's going on. Unfortunately, that's not the way this works.
I for one have not sold anything. I'm comfortably believing that 5.5p will be my worst case scenario. There's actually a real possibility that AA's price when they firm up their offer may be higher than 5.5 regardless of other bids. I think they would have only wanted to put their low figure in the announcement at this stage.
BetaBuck, you are really are a piece of work. You're comparing this to a situation where the future prospects of Thomas Cook were dire. This is a major world class mining project with 100 + year life. This is an asset that has massive long term value.
Do you really think that other major players around the world would not be looking at this rare opportunity to pick this up at a very attractive price when it's well down the track in the build and has secured revenue from the TorPs for several years?
I'm not going to waste my time on you.
BetaBuck, your are making statements when you simply do not know the facts and are misleading people.
All this announcement means is that this is the only party that has progressed to the point where they can make the announcement. Management appear to now see that an acquisition is the best way forward, so I expect that they will show their support for all offers from this point. You do not know if other parties are currently working through their due diligence and may put forward another offer. Fact!
It will be highly unlikely in my opinion that this is the only interested party for a valuable project like this where many of he major hurdles have been cleared, especially at this price level.
it's far too good a deal for there to only be one bidder that can see that.
TC, I totally agree.
I've been quietly sitting back watching how this may play out over the past few months. I have thought for quite some time that this is a sitting target for a number of big miners with very deep pockets.
I suspect that the BoD are doing some manoeuvring here by stating that they will recommend the offer. I'm pretty confident that other suitors will soon be stepping up. This project is far too attractive to only have one interested party, especially at this ridiculous price. This would be a steel even at 3 times this first potential offer.
Patience may be well rewarded. IMHO
That's smart Posti. My average is 7p because I've always sat patiently when these sorts of opportunities have come by.
Who was it that said "be greedy when others are fearful"? Well....here we are.
I'm with you...this is possibly the last and most attractive buying opportunity that I've seen since SXX came onto my radar. Happy to role the dice with this management team. I'm expecting that they will come back soon announcing they have found a way forward with much less capital required and probably a stg2 and stg3 plan.
It's been a while since I've been on here. I just can't believe the enormous amount of time people spend on here whinging and whinging. Unbelievable!!
It's unfortunate that they couldn't get the bonds away, but we are a long way from done here. I started building my position in this co when many thought they wouldn't get the permit. I've watch them clear multiple hurdles. This is another one that they have to find a solution for. I believe they will. This project has developed far enough for them to have some options.
If you've lost confidence in this, sell up, move on and make room for constructive dialogue. Somebody out there will happily buy your shares. Why hang around whinging and moaning trying to spread your ugly pessimism?
Sxx4me, I wish!! Would love to have the number of shares that CF has.
Hi guys. Just wanted to jump in and say something about the comment made dilution with this deal. It's not dilution when shares are exchanged for equity in another business. In my mind, this is a great deal that gives SXX financial gain with the supply chain from mine to end customer.
I'm personally thrilled with this deal.
There are some very low expectations with the SP. At 50p the market cap would be £2.35B. Do you really think this company would be worth this little at the end of the year if the project is fully funded and past the half way mark of the build?
I've got this very wrong if the business is only worth that little at that point if there isn't further dilution That is the ONLY remaining risk IMO that is holding the SP from shooting straight up.
Hi HC. I think they're in deep discussions with the financiers right now to get a clear understanding of how much they need sold in TorPs. They would only want to pre sell as much as they have to at this point because we will get much higher prices later for the product. TorPs are done with a significant discount. It's a very intertwined process at the moment, so I expect they will have customers at commitment point while they work through the financing process.
I actually think that any concerns re the UK economy won't have much bearing on decisions that the banks make here because the Sirius business is not dependent on the UK economy.
Hi Stokey. I'm not sure I agree with you. I think there will be a number of shareholders that will sell when we get a significant rise. You may be sensing that based on the handful of people that post on this board. That's the minority that you'd gage on here. You've only got to look at the wild moves that we have in the SP to see how much trading goes on. Some of the long termers may not sell all. Some may dilute a little at a time to buy the toys/holidays etc that many on this board constantly talk about. Putting the early investors aside, we have MANY new shareholders coming in now as we speak and you can be sure that there are different agendas/timelines. Things are going to change and that is expected as this matures. I also expect that at some point in the not too distant future, the larger portion of shares will be held by II's. I'd say as much as 70-80% once we get to production. Things will evolve and public company's tend to financially engineer things to appeal to the broader market and maintain demand for shares. Getting our share price out of higher will help bring big money in. I remember watching something very interesting a few years ago after the GFC. The SP of Citibank in the US plummeted well below USD$5 and they then unexpectedly did a big consolidation. I was then informed that they did that because many II's and sophisticated PI's bailed out at a rapid rate and they needed them back in to get the value of the company back up and to stabilise the share price. It helped demand and created bigger holdings, which is what all us should want with any company we invest in. Lots of PI's with a small investment in here will not get the market cap up quickly to the level that we're all hoping for. We all want big money to come in here and some engineering will help our cause. This is a company that will be worth 10s of billions, so we're stepping into the bigger league here and things are going to change. That's a good thing. Scotty, I have to run now, but there's a little more to it. Will offer more of my thoughts when I get a moment. Looking forward to hearing commentary from the AGM/. It would be great if somebody just asks the question.
There are some good reasons this would be beneficial. 1. For long term investors, it would unlock the value of the large investment because you cannot leverage shares at this price point. This will help PI's stay in with bigger commitments for longer rather than liquidating along the way. 2. There are many II's that won't touch shares at this level. I do not see any reason for a share split later if they do this in the near future, With a very significant investment in SXX now, this is becoming increasingly important to me.
Would anybody going to the AGM be happy to ask if there are any thoughts around consolidation of shares? I am very keen for that to happen for a number of reasons and for the share price to be over �3.5 Given the number of shares, they could easily do a 1 for 10. That would also open this up for more II's.