Member Info for Athens81

With the mobile money IPO coming up they are surely going to want to demonstrate it has as much value as possible. Could the tie up with Prudential mean they will look to start offering micro insurance products to airtel money customers backed by Prudential? If so that could really up the valuation of airtel money and by extension AAF

Price drop has been pretty ugly last few days but probably to be expected. All the index funds have had to sell to rebalance based on the new free float. I would imagine a load of margin was called in over everyone who went long on the shares just before the announcement, and the drop has probably triggered a whole load of stop losses as well. Volume on Friday was 16 million! but today down to less than 2 million. Hopefully that means the bloodbath is fizzzling out. That is just my take DYOR etc

Thanks for the clarification. I think whichever way you look at it the AAF valuation alone should be at least 400 if not more

@joedjoed - for this part "If we value MM at 12*EBITDA and Rump at 6* this gives USD 22.8BN = GBP 17.1bn. With approx. 3650mln shares in existence then this implies a share price of 468 now. " - dont you need to take off any debt from that 22.8BN figure? which would then imply a lower price for now?

But agree that with the projected growth this should be higher anyway

@jakeyork - yes I am also a LTH and seeing the drops this week is not nice at all. I do agree that considering the rollercoaster this week they could make some sort of statement

As someone has said below the business fundamentals are still there and we have just had great results. I hope this is short term volatility caused by the speculation, delayed IPO and some profit taking. I still maintain that if they ever do try and buyback everything that institutions will not be selling at low prices. Hopefully I am right and the price can get back up again but on days like today I do wonder

This is my understanding of the current situation. If I am mistaken please correct me as this is only what I have been able to put together in the last couple of days. I'm not an expert so please DYOR and let me know if any of the below is wring

The share swap that Bharti did was for a valuation of approx 370. From what I understand this means if they wanted to come in and buy any remaining shares in the next 12 months, under UK takeover law they would have to offer at least the highest they have paid in that period. So the minimum would be 370. And thats if they dont end up slowly buying anymore when the price is above 370 as that would then push that floor up.

Next to convince the bigger funds to sell they are likely going to have to offer a premium on that price. Especially if this is before the Airtel Money flotation as anyone selling would then potentially miss out on that windfall and any future growth prospects.

If it takes places after the flotation you would hope by that point the share price would be back up above 370 anyway and so any offer would be higher.

If they can take their ownership to 90% they can force any remaining holders to sell, but to get to that point they are likely to have to get institutional holders to part and again they are likely to drive the price up as high as possible.

It does look to me like this is the start of them trying to take airtel africa off the market but I don't think they would be able to suddenly buy everyone out at say 300 or some other low price.

I think to say they are not to be trusted is a bit strong. On results day the price closed at 367. This is basically the price that Airtel have done the share deal with Bharti at today. The only reason the share went up to 420 this week was because they made the annoucement around the buyout. The price was driven up by everyone buying in expecting they would buy back the shares at some wild premium like 450 or 500 etc. They never stated that and everyone seems to have done 1 + 1 and gotten 5

Maybe a bit naive to expect them to have done that? I had hoped for a little premium as a LTH but why would they need to reward speculators who have only bought in over the past few days by suddenly paying 450? If you are a LTH its a bit frustrating to see a 10% drop but in perspective we are no worse off than last Friday. I feel for people who have bought in only this week and hopefully we can get back to 400 asap. The price they have offered internally is essentially the price we closed at on results day so its hardly being undervalued.

If they are buying out regular shareholders there are a lot more rules they will have to follow and they would normally have to offer a premium to get everyone onboard. They have set a floor with today by paying around 370 with their internal swap, so I would think if later down the line they wanted to buyout regular shareholders (the remaining %) they would be offering a premium on 370. And that is if the price is at 370 or below. If it was already at say 400 when they wanted to buyout it would then be a premium on 400. That is as I understand it.

Well we will only found out later today after the short disclosures come out if anyone did close yesterday. I would be amazed if they didn't considering the results and the price move up

Its natural because by selling basically to themselves at a discount they are trying to claim that ~365-370 is a fair value price atm and they can set whatever price they want. So the market is reacting to that and now temporarily valuing the company in that range.

Have to remember recent results were excellent and consensus has a much higher price so hopefully this will start to go back up after a couple of days of volatility.

If they ever wanted to buyout the rest of us there is no way they could come in with a lowball offer like that. It would still IMO need to be starting at 400+

Being sold at a 11% discount to last close price which probably means this is going to end up around 370ish

Clearly prioritised themselves over other shareholders!

I would assume with the price rise today and the UT ending even higher at 1644 that some shorts have finally headed for the door?

Surely the move to 78% is pretty nailed on? I can't see how they would go through this to then reject it? If they do move to 78% that will hopefully keep the price above 400

If they do make the move it would make any jump to 100% a lot easier. Either way it shows they have a lot of faith in AAF so that should be a good outcome for shareholders whichever way it goes

Good results if nothing outstanding. Hopefully means its upwards from here. Good write up on the following link - apologies if its been posted already

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4902431-peak-greggs-stock-data-and-a-trip-to-london-suggest-the-growth-story-is-just-starting

You didn't have to wait that long for £4!

Is today a delayed reaction to last week's results? A very welcome jump up. Where do we think this could end up by year end?

Considering the FTSE was down today in general, oil back up slightly, iran and us trading shots and not finalising a deal yet, IAG reporting higher fuel costs and Starmer a dead man walking - to finish only a couple of % down seems a good result

I wonder what it is about Ocado that seems to bring out the most crazed behaviour on forums? Other shares you can generally get some sort of constructive chat going. On here however it is pretty bad and the Ocado board on advfn is on another level that probably needs to be commited to a mental asylum.

Really Ocado is probably not going to drop much further (hopefully all of the bad news is done now) but at the same time can't see it magically going up anytime soon. Will need some major catalysts to get this going again and I think they will take a lot of time to build up.

Very impressive results considering everything going on. Can you imagine if the whole Iran situation had never happened, we would probably be close to 500 already.

I think its encouraging that despite starting the day a fair bit down near 375 its recovered back to 390. To me shows there is demand and hopefully if the Iran situation is finally resolved will only go back up from here. 450 could be realistic within the next few months IF nothing kicks off again. Or the Rat virus doesn't consume us all...

Started down, recovered well and now since the start the of investor call at 1pm has dropped again! Market can't see to make up its mind, I am guessing something has been said on the call that didn't go down well. Hopefully can find a transcript later

I posted something similar on the IAG chat but those 2 million fewer seats are less than 1% of all seats in May, down from a total of 132.6 million seats to 130.6 million. I would have thougt the majority of that is currently flights to/from/via Middle East airports? I know SMWH does have roughly 10% business in its ROW category (which includes Middle East) but is that disruption not priced in already? So this feels more like an anticipation that the situation could get worse with more European/Americas airports seeing signicantly less travel? I would have hoped Iran/US can sort this quickly as it feels at a point where they both need an off ramp