Member Info for Asperger1

Good profit to be made during recessions

Heard many times before - Shame people don't post 'real time' comparisons to all this 'better stuff out there' - embarrassing then they lose their pot chasing the dream

Started this fantasy portfolio in 2016 to challenge various poster's perception that Lloy is 'the worst share ever', 'better else where' or a 'dire share',

8th Oct 2016 I invited WL/Newchurch to choose an alternative ftse 100 company so I could run a comparison, since 2016 others have been added

On 8th Oct 2016 - - 1000 quid bought 206 BP. shares & 1905 Lloy shares

Today's value, BP. 206@456 =£947 v Lloy 1905@44.36 =£845

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2017 Invest4life suggested I add Glencore - - On 22-4-17 - 1000 quid bought 335 Glen shares & 1553 Lloy shares

Today's value, Glen 335@467 =£1564 v Lloy 1553@44.36 =£689

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In July 2017 Nucky suggested I add RBS/Natwest - - On 12-7-17 1000 quid bought 384 NWG & 1512 Lloy

Today's value, NWG 384@243 =£933 v Lloy 1512@44.36 =£671

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In July 2017 Utrickytrees asked that I add BARC - - On 30-7-17 1000 quid bought 479 Barc & 1504 Lloy

Today's value Barc 479@155 =£742 v Lloy 1504@44.36 = £667

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In Sept 2018 Motley Fool recommended Diageo over Lloyds - - On 9-9-18 1000 quid bought 37.3 DGE & 1704 Lloy

Today's value, DGE 37.3@3360 =£1253 v Lloy 1704@44.36 =£756

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2020 Theosus asked that I add Circassia - - On 14-4-20 £1000 bought 3891 CIR/NIOX & 3058 Lloy

Today's value, NIOX 3891@65 =£2528 v Lloy 3058@44.36 =£1357

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2020 TheBoard asked that I add RollsRoyce - - On 25-4-20 £1000 bought 322 RR. (post 10for3RI 1073) & 3367 Lloy

Today's value, RR. 1073@146 =£1567 v Lloy 3367@44.36 =£1494

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This week's observation - mostly up for fantasy stocks - Russia/Ukraine hostilities rattle on - Cost of living continues to bite, Energy prices to fall, Strikes strikes strikes, Rwanda plan to go to Supreme Court, Wimbledon, Huw Edwards sandal?

A very basic comparison that does not include divi yield, IMO those still suggesting Lloy is 'the worst share ever' or a 'dire share' should maybe consider Premium Bonds.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1st Real deal, 30-3-20 I bought 15,000 Lloy @ 33.606 = £5040

Current value - Lloy 15000 @44.36 = £6654 = +30% over ~40 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

2nd real deal, 4-3-22 I bought 8,500 Lloy @ 44 = £3740

Current value - Lloy 8500 @44.36 = £3771 = -1% over ~16 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

3rd real deal, 13-6-22 I bought 11,500 Lloy @ 42.66 = £4940

Current value - Lloy 11500 @44.36 = £5101 = +2% over ~13 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

4th real deal, 28-9-22 I bought 7000 Lloy @ 41.97 = £2962

Current value - Lloy 7000 @44.36 = £3105 = +3% over ~11 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

5th real deal, 4-5-23 I bought 30.000 Lloy @ 46.24 = £13872

Current value - Lloy 30,000 @44.36 = £13308 = -5% over ~9wks

~~~~~~~~~~

6th real deal - divi cash was waiting for good buy in price (39p?)

History ---- The case for Special divi's similar to 2015/16?

Special 2023 0.5p???

Interim 2023 1p??? (+25% on 2022?)

Final 2022 1.6p

Interim 2022 0.80p (+19.4% on 2021)

Final 2021 1.33p

Interim 2021 0.67p

Final 2020 0.57p

Interim 2020 n/a - cancelled/Covid

Final 2019 n/a - 2.24p withheld/cancelled/Covid

Interim 2019 1.12p (+4.67% on 2018)

Final 2018 2.14p

Interim 2018 1.07p (+7% on 2017)

Final 2017 2.05p

Interim 2017 1.00p (+17.6% on 2016)

Special 2016 0.50p

Final 2016 1.70p

Interim 2016 0.85p (+13.3% on 2015)

Special 2015 0.50p

Final 2015 1.50p

Interim 2015 0.75p

Final 2014 0.75p

Gaps closed, others open across all 3x banks

Gap watch - Lloy ---- Current SP - 44.36

11th-12th July 23 - 43.37

29th-30th June 23 - 42.895 - closed

20th-21st June 23 - 44.76 - closed

24th-25th May 23 - 46.6

9th-10th Mar 23 - 51.3p

21st-24th Feb 20 - 55.17p

10th-13th Jan 20 - 60.1p

23rd-24th Jun 16 - 71.1p

27th-28th Oct 15 - 77.1p

Gap watch - Barc ---- Current SP - 155

11th-12th July 23 - 148.38

5th-6th July 23 - 149.40 - closed

9th-10th Feb 23 - 189.56

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278

Gap watch - NWG ---- Current SP - 243

11th-12th July 23 235.3

5th-6th July 23 - 237.5 - closed

9th-10th Mar 23 - 289.9

23rd-24th Feb 11- 471

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648

14th-15th May 08 - 3192

3rd-4th Aug 05 - 5621

8th-9th March 05 - 5920

Based on LSE tech chart ---- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp ---- https://allstarcharts.com/gaps-need-filled/

Carltt - "you need to wait for low 20’s, today you’ll pay double. Wait for labour, not long to go"

I hear what yor saying - cus Labour will ultimately wreck our economy!!!

But I recall Lloy SP fared well under Blair's 1st term (1997-2001) - took Labour a couple of terms to totally wreck our economy

Stagecoach - "Rock Bottom" - exactly, fulfils the old adage, "Buy low"

Stagecoach - I look for value - Lloy ticks all the boxes

* Undervalued * Low SP * High Earning * Increasing Earning * High Yield * Increasing Yield * Buybacks

Stagecoach - which are the reliable indicators IYO?

Current Industry PE

* Investors are pessimistic on the British Banks industry, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates will be lower than they have historically.

* The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 6.1x which is lower than its 3-year average PE of 14.2x.

* The 3-year average PS ratio of 2.2x is higher than the industry's current PS ratio of 1.9x.

Past Earnings Growth

* The earnings for companies in the Banks industry have grown 91% per year over the last three years.

* Revenues for these companies have grown 6.1% per year.

* This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.

https://simplywall.st/markets/gb/financials/banks

Https://finbox.com/LSE:LLOY/explorer/pe_ltm/

WW "£1 is in never, never land I am afraid"

Performance Summary -

* Lloyds Banking's latest twelve months p/e ratio is 5.1x

* Lloyds Banking's p/e ratio for fiscal years ending December 2018 to 2022 averaged 12.8x.

* Lloyds Banking's operated at median p/e ratio of 8.9x from fiscal years ending December 2018 to 2022.

* Looking back at the last 5 years, Lloyds Banking's p/e ratio peaked in December 2020 at 21.9x.

* Lloyds Banking's p/e ratio hit its 5-year low in December 2021 of 6.1x.

* Lloyds Banking's p/e ratio decreased in 2018 (8.9x, -41.7%) and 2021 (6.1x, -72.0%) and increased in 2019 (19.4x, +117.5%), 2020 (21.9x, +12.6%), and 2022 (7.8x, +28.0%).

IMO 1p interim divi plus 0.5p special divi is not out of the realm of possibility

History - The case for Special divi's similar to 2015/16?

Special 2023 0.5p???

Interim 2023 1p??? (+25% on 2022?)

Final 2022 1.6p

Interim 2022 0.80p (+19.4% on 2021)

Final 2021 1.33p

Interim 2021 0.67p

Final 2020 0.57p

Interim 2020 n/a - cancelled/Covid

Final 2019 n/a - 2.24p withheld/cancelled/Covid

Interim 2019 1.12p (+4.67% on 2018)

Final 2018 2.14p

Interim 2018 1.07p (+7% on 2017)

Final 2017 2.05p

Interim 2017 1.00p (+17.6% on 2016)

Special 2016 0.50p

Final 2016 1.70p

Interim 2016 0.85p (+13.3% on 2015)

Special 2015 0.50p

Final 2015 1.50p

Interim 2015 0.75p

Final 2014 0.75p

Started this fantasy portfolio in 2016 to challenge various poster's perception that Lloy is 'the worst share ever', 'better else where' or a 'dire share',

8th Oct 2016 I invited WL/Newchurch to choose an alternative ftse 100 company so I could run a comparison, since 2016 others have been added

On 8th Oct 2016 - - 1000 quid bought 206 BP. shares & 1905 Lloy shares

Today's value, BP. 206@454 =£943 v Lloy 1905@43.1 =£831

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2017 Invest4life suggested I add Glencore - - On 22-4-17 - 1000 quid bought 335 Glen shares & 1553 Lloy shares

Today's value, Glen 335@436 =£1461 v Lloy 1553@43.1 =£677

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In July 2017 Nucky suggested I add RBS/Natwest - - On 12-7-17 1000 quid bought 384 NWG & 1512 Lloy

Today's value, NWG 384@233 =£895 v Lloy 1512@43.1 =£659

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In July 2017 Utrickytrees asked that I add BARC - - On 30-7-17 1000 quid bought 479 Barc & 1504 Lloy

Today's value Barc 479@149 =£714 v Lloy 1504@43.1 = £656

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In Sept 2018 Motley Fool recommended Diageo over Lloyds - - On 9-9-18 1000 quid bought 37.3 DGE & 1704 Lloy

Today's value, DGE 37.3@3270 =£1220 v Lloy 1704@43.1 =£743

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2020 Theosus asked that I add Circassia - - On 14-4-20 £1000 bought 3891 CIR/NIOX & 3058 Lloy

Today's value, NIOX 3891@58.6 =£2280 v Lloy 3058@43.1 =£1333

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In April 2020 TheBoard asked that I add RollsRoyce - - On 25-4-20 £1000 bought 322 RR. (post 10for3RI 1073) & 3367 Lloy

Today's value, RR. 1073@149 =£1599 v Lloy 3367@43.1 =£1468

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This week's observation - mostly down for fantasy stocks - Russia/Ukraine hostilities rattle on - Cost of living continues to bite, Energy prices to fall, Strikes strikes strikes, New plan for NHS, Rwanda plan to go to Supreme Court, Wimbledon, wealthy to pay more for BBC?

A very basic comparison that does not include divi yield, IMO those still suggesting Lloy is 'the worst share ever' or a 'dire share' should maybe consider Premium Bonds.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

1st Real deal, 30-3-20 I bought 15,000 Lloy @ 33.606 = £5040

Current value - Lloy 15000 @43.1 = £6540 = +30% over ~36 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

2nd real deal, 4-3-22 I bought 8,500 Lloy @ 44 = £3740

Current value - Lloy 8500 @43.1 = £3706 = -0.9% over ~15 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

3rd real deal, 13-6-22 I bought 11,500 Lloy @ 42.66 = £4940

Current value - Lloy 11500 @43.1 = £5014 = +1.5% over ~12 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

4th real deal, 28-9-22 I bought 7000 Lloy @ 41.97 = £2962

Current value - Lloy 7000 @43.1 = £3052 = +3% over ~9 months

~~~~~~~~~~~

5th real deal, 4-5-23 I bought 30.000 Lloy @ 46.24 = £13872

Current value - Lloy 30,000 @43.1 = £13080 = -5.7% over ~7wks

~~~~~~~~~~

6th real deal - divi cash awaiting good buy in price (39p?)

Lloy Total Voting Rights history - (Financial crash - HMG bailout - HBOS takeover - Covid)

28th Feb 2007 5,638,778,841

29th Feb 2008 5,648,388,364 + 10m

30th Jan 2009 16,345,203,865 + 10.7bn

8th Jun 2009 25,796,301,751 + 9.45bn

30th Jun 2009 27,161,682,366 + 1.36bn

18th Dec 2009 36,612,829,170 + 9.5bn

31st Dec 2009 63,774,511,536 + 27bn

26th Feb 2010 66,915,197,938 + 3.14bn

28th Feb 2011 68,074,485,023 + 1.16bn

29th Feb 2012 68,874,879,723 + 0.8bn

28th Feb 2013 70,343,558,343 + 1.47bn

28th Feb 2014 71,369,954,233 + 1.026bn

26th Mar 2015 71,373,735,357 + 4m

24th Mar 2016 71,373,735,357 ~

28th Feb 2017 71,459,965,313 + 86m

28th Feb 2018 72,086,432,586 + 590m

28th Feb 2019 71,349,949,398 - 736m

28th Feb 2020 70,426,890,295 - 923m

28th Feb 2021 70,859,202,885 + 433m

28th Feb 2022 71,047,437,994 + 188m

28th Feb 2023 67,386,199,641 - 3.661bn

30th June 2023 64,640,297,474 -2.746bn

Gap watch - Lloy

Current SP - 43.1

29th-30th June 23 - 42.895

20th-21st June 23 - 44.76

24th-25th May 23 - 46.6

9th-10th Mar 23 - 51.3p

21st-24th Feb 20 - 55.17p

10th-13th Jan 20 - 60.1p

23rd-24th Jun 16 - 71.1p

27th-28th Oct 15 - 77.1p

Gap watch - Barc

Current SP - 149

5th-6th July 23 - 149.40

29th-30th June 23 - 151.86 - closed

9th-10th Feb 23 - 189.56

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278

Gap watch - NWG

Current SP - 232.6

20th-21st June 23 - 244.9 closed

5th-6th July 23 - 237.5

9th-10th Mar 23 - 289.9

23rd-24th Feb 11- 471

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648

14th-15th May 08 - 3192

3rd-4th Aug 05 - 5621

8th-9th March 05 - 5920

Based on LSE tech chart

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp

https://allstarcharts.com/gaps-need-filled/

AR4PM

God help us !!!

Is Angela Rayner on course to be Labours 1st female leader -

and

The 1st female Labour PM?

Careful how you vote lol

Doctors agree,

Recession is a certainty - should Starmer/Rayner get in

"Looking forward to Labour getting in"

Really? - are we ready for Deputy PM Angela Rayner?

Be careful how you vote!