Worse than Sound Energy??30 Aug 2023 09:02
Having never really held here before, I got in recently after the placing with high hopes for the testing but have already offloaded most of my largish holding on worries about what if anything will actually flow here.
Sound Energy acquired their Morrocan gas assets back in 2015 and had drilled their first well - TE-6 I think - about a year later. They followed the gas shows with a quick flow test and with superb results the share price shot up to peak at £1 for a m/cap of over £500M. What a success!!
Predator on the other hand acquired their Moroccan gas prospect several years ago and only drilled their first well - MOU-1 - in 2021. The well had mixed to bad results, with no positive gas shows recorded, and the share price tanked from a high of 20p+ to about 5p. Ever since the management has been telling the market they would test MOU-1 but the testing has always been delayed and delayed. Instead of testing MOU-1 straight after it was drilled they drilled MOU-2 - which turned out to be a total disaster - and then 2 years later, in 2023, they drilled MOU-3 and MOU-4, which in fairness finally actually look like they might just be successful and to have found gas.
However now instead of making the sensible decision to test either MOU-3 or MOU-4 first they are going to test MOU-1. This decision surely takes the risk of MOU-1 not flowing very well, or at least not as well as is likely from MOU-3 and MOU-4.
Alongside the MOU-1 worries, the management here are the only ones I have ever heard complain about the cost of rigless testing. This is usually done without any alarm about the cost, or at least without concern as long as the companies involved are pretty sure that they have hit gas or oil and that the well is most likely to flow. And instead of using the tried and tested rigless testing established methods they are sticking their necks on the line using some new-found technology which is not industry standard. Maybe PRD do not have much hope of getting any great flow rates from MOU-1 and that is why they have sourced a cheaper testing option.
Also why test 22 different horizons, none of which are likely to flow at a decent commercial level. This also sounds an odd way of proceeding with the much-delayed testing.
All in all, I have much reduced my holding and will now watch how the testing proceeds. From checking back on the share price movement during Sound Energy's testing in 2016 it is obvious it will be easy enough for me to buy back in if the testing starts to go well and gas actually flows from MOU-1. However, without very good flow rates the share price could quite easily fall back down to 4p or thereabouts.
Cory Moruga acquisition is delayed again - what do you expect, of course it is.
AJMHO.