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Maybe the correct figure was 2,580bopd - and not 12,580bopd. Maybe it was a printing error. Maybe it was deliberate. 2,580 is sort of around the 'several thousand barrels a day' though maybe a bit low though 12,580 is wildly more than 'several thousand'.
The whole rise from 0.65p, where the share price was on the date of the TO-14 drill results, up to 1.35p looked to be totally ungrounded and false and now I can see the reason why the share price spiked as it did: false information
The Half Year Report is out today and there is a blaring disparity in the information regarding the TO-14 drill which I have been suspicious of for some time now.
The RNS dated 28th December contained the following statement:
"The TO-14 well penetrated the entire Binga reservoir section (~80m column) with potential pay zones seen in multiple intervals. TO-14, with a total depth of 781m, was drilled in close proximity to TO-4 as an offset well from the best historic producer in the original Tobias field; a well which produced at its historic peak 12,580 bbls/d despite only penetrating the first 8m of the reservoir."
What I could not work out at the time was how one well could have produced so much oil - 12,580bopd - when the whole field, which was I believe about 7 or 9 individual wells, only maxed at 17,500bopd. It didn't seem to make sense that if the wells were all averaging 1500 - 2000 bopd how one could be at 12,580.bopd.
In today's Half Year Report it now says:
" Following the completion of the TO-13 well, the operator at KON-11, Sonangol, moved the rig to the Tobias-14 ("TO-14") location, where we drilled near the most prolific historic producer of the Tobias oilfield, having reached several thousand barrels per day alone at its peak."
So according to the Half Year Report T0-4 actually only peaked at 'several thousand barrels per day' and not the previously quoted 12,580bopd. That is a lot of difference.
It looks to me as if the figure was deliberately bumped up in the December RNS and that is what caused the share price to go on its wild rise from around 0.65p to as high as 1.35p in January. It was also behind some of the wild flow rate production figures that were being bandied about on this board.
Naughty, naughty, naughty.
The news gets worse. Now their partners at Mt Weld have pulled the plug on any further investment in the project. Never a good sign of what is there.
Mt. Weld Update
28 March 2024
Corcel plc, (London AIM: CRCL), the Angolan focused exploration and production company, announces an update to its Mt. Weld rare earth element project, located 1.5km west/north-west of Lynas Rare Earth Element's Mt. Weld rare earth oxide mine, near Laverton, Western Australia.
Corcel's partner, Riversgold Limited (ASX:RGL) has informed the Company of its withdrawal from the Mt. Weld earn-in agreement, as part of a much larger tenement rationalisation process undertaken by RGL.
This decision will leave the Company with an 80% interest in the project, with the balance of 20% being held by Extraction Srl, an entity in which Corcel's Executive Chairman, Antoine Karam, owns 45%.
With the current and future shareholdings now clarified, the Company is assessing its options and next steps regarding further development of the project.
Corcel Executive Chairman, Antoine Karam, commented: "We thank our partners at Riversgold for driving Mt. Weld forward over the past year, including management of the initial drilling campaign at the project. While it is clear Riversgold's significant project rationalisation effort moves them to focus on other avenues, primarily lithium, it leaves Corcel with ultimate control of the project's next steps."
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CRCL/mt-weld-update/16400834
From experience I would confidently say that taking a long time to flow test a well is a sign that they are having trouble getting it to flow. No news in this business is usually bad news. They have now bought themselves some time but there is still no guarantee that this will flow at all, let alone at the high figures to meet previous production levels.
TO-13 might flow but from memory that well historically flowed at about 7 times less than TO-14.
You lot make me laugh. Any way you can twist this around to find the positive. Talk about rose-tinted specs.
Personally I am quite happy to wait for further news from the operators. If they can get decent flow rates then it will be easy enough to buy in and if they can't, well I've got nothing to lose and I won't have to panic sell all over again.
And look at BCE - Beacon Energy - more recently who claimed their drill was going to flow at 900bopd but they only managed 40bopd.; and look at Desire Petroleum in the Falklands who declared an oil find that turned into water a couple of days later.
Every dill is differrent.
Yeah, bouncing strong!!!
Let's believe that TO-14 is going to flow at 12,500bopd - that's 2,500bopd net to Corcel.
Or that is what we were led to believe anyway in the RNS dated 28th December 2023. Unfortunately it hasn't happened so far.
I think the best approach is to claim to not have noticed or read the RNS and to see the drop as an unexpected buying opportunity - and by the way, that is me being sarcastic.
Https://www.corcelplc.com/
https://www.corcelplc.com/investors/regulatory-news/
Sorry Sniper88.
I did not read that as being sarcastic though I can now when I reread it. To be honest there have been far too many bonkers posts here since the RNS was released to know what is going on.