Member Info for Archy147

Edit to the below, i see I have been looking at UK natural gas prices in drawing that conclusion.

Looking at other charts for Natura Gas priced in USD, they do look somewhat different!

Gavster I'm inclined to disagree that there is reason to be bullish about the future gas price.

After becoming ridiculously overinflated in 2021 and holding those prices for 2022, it is rapidly coming down to more sensible levels.

When I say "sensible", it is still overinflated compared to historic averages. The only time in the last 25 years it has been higher current this was a short-lived surge in 2005 (plus another in 2008 when it was about the same level as it is now).

It feels to me like one of the covid stocks that ballooned out of all proportion during the pandemic but has subsequently come crashing back to earth as normality sets in again.

The question we should be asking ourselves, therefore, is if normality re-asserts itself here, with gas prices returning to a more typical £30-70 trading range, what does that mean for the DEC share price?

Every reason to be bullish my friend.

Not only are the results very positive today, the sp after the rise is inexplicably still below covid lows.
Fair value looks to be around 190-200p, so holding out for at least another 50% from here.

Thank you Kitlngold.

Can anyone advise please, does this share price habitually track gas prices?

Oh dear is the sp here always so sensitive to gas prices?

Looking at the long term chart, gas is coming off the ridiculous highs of 2022 but is still well above the average of the previous 20+ years.

Common sense says the gas price will continue to decline as it reverts back to the mean. If I believe that is going to happen (which it patently is) does that mean I should be selling here?

I bought in today too.

Lowest prices here since 2016, absolute bargain.

Note this is a quote from Investors Chronicle on March 28th:

Patience seems to be lacking among investors, with these results triggering a further 12 per cent sell-off. However, it could be handsomely rewarded. At its current market capitalisation, Synthomer's shares are trading at around half of their book value and less than seven times FactSet's consensus forecast earnings of 16p a share – below their five-year average of 10.4 times. Looking ahead to next year, analysts predict a hike in earnings to 25p as medical glove demand normalises, or 4.3 times its current share price. With cash flow also showing strong signs of improvement in the second half of last year, we maintain our view that the company looks undervalued. Buy.

I have lost the plot with this share so no idea what Q1 will bring. Pre-covid they were merrily trading around 350p. Are things that terrible they're now only worth 1/3 of that?

Even the covid low was over 200p, struggling to make sense of the market on this one

Well my timing here hasn't been great: after researching over the weekend, I bought in for the 1st time at 94p this morning, then sat and watched it slowly drop the entire afternoon. (It really bugs me when that happens with a new holding, far more than it does with an existing one!)

I'm wondering if I should have seen it coming. Does anyone here have level 2? If I had it, would it have been obvious which direction the sp was going to travel?

Anyone who does have level 2, could you kindly recommend the best value site to use?

Always sensible to be cautious, but the sp already has a mountain of that built in.

RTN has traded at over 100p in every single year since 2004. That includes the financial crisis, austerity, Brexit, Covid, and anything else the doomsayers have warned about.

Is 2023 really going to be any different from the last 19 years??

Couldn't agree more greg

After the recent rise, this is now overweigh in my pf, but I can't bring myself to top slice because i still think its way too cheap!

I'm thinking this should be 150p as a bare minimum and if they get anywhere close to their 2025 forecast of "more than 35p of Adjusted EPS" we could easily be talking 3 times that amount!

Nice. Surprised there aren’t more big buyers given this is trading at a 50% discount to where it should be.

Not before time indeed!

Inexplicable this is still trading below its Covid low. Only a matter of time before the full re-rate comes.

Excellent, well played IPF

This remains one of the most unloved, and undervalued, companies on the FTSE

P/E of 4 for a highly profitable, growing, high yielding company is, quite frankly, bonkers

Price is already below the covid low of 289p when stock market panic was at its peak.

How much more blood do they want now before common sense prevails?!

Half expected it to be back to 100p today after that excellent news from the white paper. A little more patience required then.

Amazing to think this was over 400p around 18 months ago. Can we get back there? Not impossible.

Welcome Newbie

After any sharp rise like we've just seen, its not unusual to see a chipping away at it for a period afterwards.
Trying to understand daily (and intra-day) movements is a fool's game though, I would save yourself the headache and stop trying.

The important thing is to take a longer term view and ignore the daily swings. If (as you and I both do) believe the share is fundamentally undervalued, you just need to back yourself and hold your nerve. That doesn't mean put all your eggs in the one basket though. We of course might be wrong so holding as part of a portfolio is important to diversify away risk.

Yep time to fill our boots. Opportunities like this don't come around too often :)

Yes I'm surprised this isn't heading north at a rate of knots.

We're pretty much back to the covid lows now, which is just plain silly