Member Info for AquaeSulis01

You did at the end in response to a question that included the word % in it

Can only have been Neil D whilst SOH was hospitalised. SOH is now out of hospital but has to balance his time around return visits to the hospital 3 times per week apparently, none-the-less is now involved in discussions with Partners/Customers

WIILG, I would not disagree with your view at all, definitely room for both ingredients. On the acquisition front, and mindful of the medibiotix pillar which sbtx is free to exploit with the lysate for its skin healing properties, the Dermatonics Once Heel Balm is used to prevent foot ulcers in patients with diabetes, adding the lysate to it would also assist with the healing process where a leg ulcer has already started to develop and the second acquisition, Biotech solutions have the capability and capacity to add the lysate in-house. A few years away but augers well for the future

Sophie, rather to continue on with a circular argument on this BB about % royalties, why not pre-submit your own question to Stuart on the upcoming Investor Meets platform to gain the clarification you seek?

WIILG, it is because matrixyl is one of the biggest more established ingredients that it was selected by Stuart as a comparator as skinbiotix is seen to have the potential for similar reach as an ingredient by both Stuart and Croda. A reminder of Stuart's use of the word 'replacement' "episode 29 shareprophet interview between Tom Winnifrith and Stuart Ashman and at 22 mins in when responding to TW speculating on £25M per annum passive revenue from Croda Stuart states "Matrixyl sells £200-£250M and we have signed double digit royalties with them. Are we going to get that all in one go? Absolutely not, they will be phasing in skinbiotix as a replacement and some may not switch at all but if we get £3M-£5M in year 1 that is all passive revenue".

I agree with you that skinbiotix is different and not a direct replacement for matrixyl in every case; the latter focuses on simulating collagen whilst skinbiotix with its impact on skin elasticity, tight junctions, and transepidermal water loss, so probably best to focus on the effect that each Customer's product is trying to deliver.

Regarding the Croda statements that have been RNS'd ;

Nov 2019 Commercial Agreement Announced "Arnaud Fournial, Managing Director of Sederma, said:

"The SkinBiotix™ technology has a solid scientific foundation which attracted us in the first place. We believe the technology has the potential to become an essential and significant component of cosmetic products within the rapidly emerging skin microbiome market. We look forward to a fully collaborative partnership with the SkinBioTherapeutics team and to seeing SkinBiotix™ being embraced by our global partners as a key ingredient across a variety of products to protect and rejuvenate skin."

Oct 23 Contract Extension "Dr Damian Kelly, Vice President Innovation & Technology Development at Croda Europe Ltd, responsible for the project previously said:

"This [SkinBiotix? programme] continues to be a fascinating project that is heading towards commercialisation and will break new scientific ground in the use of lysated bacteria in the cosmetic industry as a skin care active ingredient. We have recently observed some additional unexpected technical benefits during our projected scale-up activities which, if shown to be efficacious through further in-vitro and in-vivo clinical trials, would then offer significant supplementary applications and greater product valorisation as a skin care cosmetic active. We are excited by the findings we have seen thus far and look forward to a long and prosperous relationship with SkinBioTherapeutics."

So I believe the Matrixyl comparator in terms of scale and reach is warranted.

No idea what revenue to expect from Croda by end of the end of the Calendar Year but being cash flow positive by the end Jun 25 FY is hugely encouraging. The last forecast excluding Croda following the second acquisition presented at the Oct Inv Meets had us EBITDA (prior to tax and interest deductions) positive by £0.4M at Jun 25. So to go to cash positive with Croda offsetting tax on £6.3M revenue and interest payments on the loan of circa £93K is a decent start

WIILG the problem is that SBTX has not had sufficient funds to properly market axisbiotix; originally to be launched via a partner who it transpired wanted too much of the pie so SBTX went it alone. The launch of the axisbiotix acne product is seen as a second string to the bow to bring in a multi-national partner, irrespective if a multi-national steps in to market axisbiotix-ps and acne or not, the passive revenue from the Croda deal once fully launched will enable SBTX to focus on properly promoting their other products

Agree Bigpunt. The downside risk has gone but Opti the biggest shareholder will need to sell to support their own business growth and the macq Bank warrants kick in at 20p, so a long term hold for now and there will be pullbacks presenting buying opportunities unless Croda step in with an offer once they see how sales are going

my thoughts entirely clio. in the same ************* interview in response to tw's £25m per annum passive revenue figure suggested by tw based on matrixyl figures, stuart concluded by stating that was not an unreasonable figure once fully rolled out and the hard cash is all that matters. however, i agree sa has stated many things that have failed to materialise so just need to sit and hope but at least the pessimistic rather than optimistic forecast is reflected in the current shareprice which is the opposite position to the pre-axisbiotix launch sp.

i will be curious to see to what extent skinbiotix is used alongside as opposed to replacing matrixyl as an ingredient. matrixyl stimulates collagen growth whilst skinbiotix seems to mirror the properties of elastin which is also a protein (an amino acid) that is naturally found in our tissues. it provides resilience and elasticity to our skin; in fact, it is approximately 1,000 times more flexible than collagen and allows the skin to snap back into shape like a coiled spring.

a lack of firmness, elasticity and skin sagging are all signs that your skin is lacking elastin. so whilst there are reasons for using both products, elastin rather collagen appears to be mainly responsible for preventing wrinkles.

https://skintypesolutions.com/blogs/skincare/matrixyl-in-skin-care?srsltid=afmbooq4mrcwdds93olz27jclhyt3fdpmnyghbckgp-zxkswtioreg67

https://www.theskintoloveclinic.co.uk/blog/what-is-collagen-and-elastin/

People talk about matrixyl as though it is a single product when in fact it was first released in 2000 and several new products have been developed subsequently to deal with subtly different skin aging issues. The additional properties of skinbiotix identified on scale-up may well mean that this single product can now unilaterally replace all the various versions of matrixyl rather than just individual product types so the extra time spent proving it up will hopefully make the delay to the launch date worthwhile in terms of the speed and spread of the future uptake

https://cityskinclinic.com/matrixyl-benefits/

Yes Direcons. The interview with Daz circa 20.25 in on the 13th Oct Investor Meets covered that point

Just bought some myself noting the following;

" Specialty chemicals group Croda has left full-year constant-currency profit guidance unchanged after a solid third quarter, though a stronger pound will hit the bottom-line results more than previously expected.

The US dollar and the euro represent 65% of the group's currency translation exposure, with a one cent movement per annum in either currency translating to a £1m impact on adjusted operating profits, Croda said.

As such, a strengthening of sterling over the third quarter is now expected to have a £14m negative impact on full-year profits, assuming the same exchange rates as of 30 September. Back in July, the company guided to a £5m adverse impact from currency movements." Dollar has done nothing but strengthen against the pound since the end of that strong quarter 3 and is back to Q1 and Q2 levels so would have thought that a positive rather than a negative going forward

Que sera sera

Sophie, you must believe what you will but don't accuse others of ramping because they correctly interpret what Stuart has said. This is not the only source of the royalty percentage comment, i have just re-listened to the episode 29 shareprophet interview between Tom Winnifrith and Stuart Ashman and at 22 mins in when responding to TW speculating on £25M per annum passive revenue from Croda Stuart states "Matrixyl sells £200-£250M and we have signed double digit royalties with them. Are we going to get that all in one go? Absolutely not, they will be phasing in skinbiotix as a replacement and some may not switch at all but if we get £3M-£5M in year 1 that is all passive revenue".

And you need to do a little more research Sophie:

"Q: You have a January Commercial meeting with Croda. What would you like to come out of this meeting?

Stuart: Ideally, order progress from Sederma clients. It would be brilliant if they could say we have booked x million for the first 12 months, but I suspect this is not on the cards at this stage. Commercial scale-up would be very welcome. So, we will be looking for an update on orders not launched. Also, for order scale (this is not a forecast), we would like a conversion measured in Matrixl volumes. How much of the percentage of their c£250 million of annual sales are they expecting to convert with the lysate, £15 million, £20 million, £30 million and in what timeframe, 12-24-36 months, etc.? Because I am looking to give the market complex numbers, not my numbers, but Croda/Sederma numbers.

To be clear, we get a premium double-digit on the sales, so do not confuse the above figures as our net. Obviously, if they adopt the enhance version, then this is increased again."

https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-5a9

No-one predicted double digit royalties, it was what investors have been told to expect previously by SA and by strengthening his negotiating arm through manufacturing and complementary product acquisitions, he is in a good position to deliver on those figures

Dustbin,

"I put forward two reasons for the demand fall from the big players.

The first is well known, Far Eastern demand has slumped as consumers suffer from the Chinese slowdown.

The second : They are not keen of buying more Matrixyl, ( de stocking ), since they know it could be all change next year"

For balance you might also add that as the VIP's apparently account for 80% of sales there is no evidence yet that SIGNIFICANT forward sales of skinbiotix have taken place to compensate the matrxyl sales fall.

Realistically, there is nothing to be read into this trading update from Croda good or bad for sbtx, the Croda half year results back in July included the reference "Consumer Care growing in key markets with increasing demand for sustainable ingredients" which is encouraging but it will take a time for the switch over to new products

H&B Slimexpert porridge containing slimbiome ticks all the boxes for what constitutes a healthy porridge; pity their Marketing Team aren't on the ball to take advantage of publicity like this.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/porridge-is-healthy-but-you-re-probably-eating-too-much-of-it/ar-AA1t8mMK?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=9530c359817148b38fd5b304cb5a91ab&ei=14

Thanks mol, not sure what happened to my links. Having read through these latest patents, my rough interpretation is it appears two different enzymes are used to modify lactose (β-galactosidase) producing Glucose and Galactose and Molecule Residues (2, 6 fructosyl-fructose) and Glucose (levansucrase) producing 2,6 beta-D-fructosyl n+1 product and a glucose product which are then used to create a type of Galactooligosaccharide (Opti-GOS I presume). Opti-GOS is then in turn combined with Mogroside V (Monk Fruit derivative sweetener) to produce a Fructolysated Mogroside V version, which in turn is combined with unmodified versions of Mogroside V to produce a version of sweetbiotix.

Note from the FDA website that GOS has under discretion been added as a dietary fibre and also has GRAS approval, I therefore suspect the holdup involves SOH convincing the FDA that Opti-GOS is structurally the same as the approved GOS so hopefully the latest patent clarifies things for the FDA:

After receiving several petitions from the industry and subsequently reviewing those petitions, the FDA published a list of additional fibers that are expected to meet the FDA’s definition. The final rule has not yet been amended to include these, but the FDA is allowing their inclusion as dietary fiber under enforcement discretion. We will talk about what this means a bit later.

The fibers added in 2018 are:

• Arabinoxylan

• Alginate

• Galactooligosaccharides (GOS)

• High Amylose Starch (RS2)

• Inulin & Inulin-type Fructans

• Mixed Plant Cell Wall Fibers

• Polydextrose

• Resistant Maltodextrin/Dextrin

Whilst we wait for the inevitable failure of the motions to remove Steen and hopefully early closure of this now futile action, two new/updated sweetbiotix patents have been published which hopefully means the launch of sweetbiotix products moves closer

https://ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadBasicPdf/20240358052?requestToken=eyJzdWIiOiIxZjVlZTgxNi04MjA4LTQ3ZDUtYmIxOC02MTM4NDI5YmQ0MTAiLCJ2ZXIiOiJkMjJjZjkzMS02MGI5LTQ1M2QtYjUzOS0xYWVhNDNlMDU2NmIiLCJleHAiOjB9

https://ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadBasicPdf/20240358730?requestToken=eyJzdWIiOiIxZjVlZTgxNi04MjA4LTQ3ZDUtYmIxOC02MTM4NDI5YmQ0MTAiLCJ2ZXIiOiJkMjJjZjkzMS02MGI5LTQ1M2QtYjUzOS0xYWVhNDNlMDU2NmIiLCJleHAiOjB9