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Don't forget the other possible option for a takeover. Will Croda bid for Skinbiotherapeutics or will SA look to cut a deal where the skinbiotix limited cosmetic pillar is sold to them? After all we don't currently sell cosmetics only food supplements (Axisbiotix limited) , Medicines via Dermatonics products (Medibiotix Ltd) and Pharma products courtesy of the prescribed Once Heel Balm(Pharmabiotix Ltd). This would also leave the SBTX group to obtain Zenakine at cost from Croda to create our own wound healing products with a partner and maybe Clening products further downstream (Cleanbiotix Ltd).

WIILG always useful to have a healthy debate and having been through the same pain as you with the Axis launch understand your caution. FWIW my thinking. The Axis launch expectations were based on an aborted commercial agreement, the Croda commercial agreement has been signed. So what do we know from information in the public domain about the Croda deal other than the royalty %? Firstly, thanks to toyin for pointing out the statement made in the Dec 24 RNS "Post acquisitions, the Group is now forecasting a projected annualised Group turnover for FY25 of £6.3m, and cash runway to be cash positive from FY25, with no further need to fund raise for working capital" The cash flow positive statement was then further explained by the statement " following the completion of the Croda commercial agreement, Management has been able to update expectations further to be cash positive from FY2025 and not to require any further fund raises for working capital in the foreseeable future."

Fast forward to Wednesday's investor meets "cash runway excluding Croda revenues expected to last through to Summer 2026" circa 8 mins 16 secs in."

Now what is interesting, because I had overlooked the 4/12 RNS wording that certainly did need Croda revenues at that time to achieve the runway, is what has changed since? Warrants from Macq and I strongly suspect all have now been exercised securing £500k and increased margins from Dermatonics products now mixing the ingredients in-house plus maybe an uplift in sale price to the NHS noting the last uplift was Feb 24. Which also means by default that forward sales of Zenakine are likely to be in the £5m region generating at least £500k to SBTX bottom line, hence why SA was able to RNS "the no need for further cash raises" at a time when the sp was below 20p and the exercising of the warrants were therefore not guaranteed.

WIILG, "Nothing was disclosed in this respect, and I cannot find nothing on the market- lets hope they are coming but they had better be big brands and not a tiny niche product selling a few dozen on amazon a month" We have been told quite clearly that revenues from forward sells to VIPs have already been received, Croda have already invested circa £5M of their own money to scale up Zenakine, so do you seriously believe that those VIPs rely on a few dozen niche sells on Amazon to make their profits?

WIILG, Circanblue™ has been around since 2023 and I can find no major companies that have incorporated it into their products probably because it is a one trick pony focused on the circadium rhythm and preventing interruption from "blue light" with the anti ageing active being skin-repairing enzyme (SIRT1). SIRT1 is but one of many properties that Zenakine possesses, besides the melatonin promotion, there is cell energy increases through NAD1?NADH boosts, and the improvement in the skin barrier by impacting tight Junctions, reducing Transepidermal Water Loss and increasing skin elasticity , hence why it is seen as a replacement for retinol.

So like comparing Apples and Pears

https://cosmeticsbusiness.com/resynchronising-the-skin-s-biorhythm-with-circanblue-209428

Hi martinu, good spot and it is about time the Company produced a description of what they actually are focused on producing as post divesting SBTX and PBX they are no longer involved with skincare or cardiovascular disease. Taken from Final results RNS "OptiBiotix Health plc (AIM: OPTI), a life sciences business developing compounds to tackle obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and skincare, announces its unaudited results for the six months ended 30 June 2024" and interestingly, the skincare reference was actually added a few years after they had floated SBTX which seems an odd thing to do

"Based on Matrixyl being the gold standard with sales on £250m to £350M and we are considered a good ingredient too but obviously not very likely to take all of Matrixyl's share in one or two years" true but going back to the technical slides used in the presentation, the primary target is retinol which the EU legislation will basically force the phasing out of its use over the next couple of years and the Global Beauty product market for retinol was $898M in 2023

Bel what I remember clearly is that the matrixyl figure that was used to speculate on potential revenues was 10% of £250M Matrixyl ingredient sales and that has not changed

Bel you are overthinking things when it comes to the royalty payments. Of course we only get 10% minimum on every litre sold of zenakine but as there is a 20,000 litre mixer commissioned to produce zenakine on a daily basis in anticipation of a successful uptake and in the case of matrixyl this results in sales of £250M plus per annum, and this ingredient has added benefits so may well end up in more products, that will do for us wont it?

Should add that as retinol based products sell 1 every 9 seconds that will do for me

He did but that might have been a freudian slip. The main presentation talked about retinol which has to be phased out because of Vitamen A overdose concerns, and that Zenakine is the natural replacement.

"Matrixyl and retinol are both anti-aging ingredients that can improve skin texture and appearance, but they work differently. Matrixyl is a peptide that stimulates collagen production, while retinol is a form of Vitamin A that encourages cell turnover. Both can be effective, but Matrixyl is generally considered more gentle and less likely to cause irritation than retinol. "

Perhaps an opportune time to revisit the benefits reported in the RNS released on launch day as whilst I was amongst those disappointed not to see more emphasis on the already known barrier function claims, digging a little deeper, i can now see why the additional benefits uncovered by Croda on scale-up got them so excited.

"Zenakine™ is a cutting-edge neuroactive ingredient designed to counteract the effects of stress on the skin and improve overall wellbeing. It works in sync with the skin's natural biological rhythms, enhancing melatonin production to help improve sleep quality, elevating positive emotions and stimulating skin regeneration. It is the first ingredient with clinical instrumental measures on sleep quality and duration benefits.

Clinical studies confirmed:

· An enhanced feeling of happiness in users, showing a 13.5% increase after one month versus placebo

· Improved sleep quality, with an 11.3% improvement in just two weeks

· A reduction in visible signs of skin fatigue, evidenced by a lifting effect with a 13.3% increase after one month versus placebo"

It is the clinically proven sleep quality improvement by the boosting of melatonin levels that caught my eye and here is why. About Melatonin by the NHS: "Melatonin is a hormone that occurs naturally in your body. At night, your levels of melatonin rise, before returning to normal during the day. This helps to control how and when you sleep.

You can take a synthetic version of melatonin for short periods if you have sleep problems such as insomnia. This adds to your body's natural supply of melatonin, so you fall asleep more quickly and you're less likely to wake up during the night. It may also help with symptoms of jetlag.

Melatonin is mainly used to treat short-term sleep problems in people aged 55 and over. It can also sometimes be prescribed by specialists to help with longer-term sleep problems in some children and adults.

Melatonin is available on prescription only. It comes as standard tablets, slow release tablets, capsules and a liquid that you drink.

Key facts

Melatonin takes around 1 to 2 hours to work.

You'll usually take melatonin for up to 13 weeks but some people may need it for longer.

Some people may get a headache, or feel tired, sick or irritable the day after taking melatonin."

So we have a natural product to boost melatonin levels with no side effects or restriction on how long you can use it and it also benefits your skin quality by decrease wrinkles etc. As for the wider Neurocosmetic market, it promises to be huge, so maybe it is time to get just a little bit excited after all.

https://www.nhs.uk/medicines/melatonin/about-melatonin/

https://fclskincare.com/blogs/blog/all-you-need-to-know-about-neurocosmetics?srsltid=AfmBOopDV00Cp54FxUubjZzrX-VOscFstNP844xyyKDBVmm5AspEniyv

Agree with your comment Belgrano. What folks here need to appreciate is that matrixyl is used in products associated with sun protection and after sun which the current SBTX commercial cosmetic agreement does not extend to. I therefore suspect this lies behind Croda omitting the skin repair properties we know the lysate promotes and hence the muted response from investors to the launch. Let us also not forget the forward selling of the warrants by Macq which created a stock overhang but hopefully has now cleared.

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/products/product/3007-matrixyl_1_3000

"Aquis disagree - Slimfast etc are failing as they have limited functionality and no one really wants to take a shake any more to lose weight". Exactly, so best to drop the Go-Figure meal replacement shakes then and as for the Aussie Optislim products which are also meal replacement shakes, things probably won't be looking too rosy for them either?

Lord, agree that the lack of mention of the original benefit claims associated with the skin barrier that attracted Croda to SBTX in the first place in lieu of majoring on the new benefits discovered by Croda on scale-up was disappointing. However, must not forget that Croda is a B2B Company and does not sell to end Customers and so we don't know what has been shared with major Clients nor what will go in their own marketing claims. Anyway this is the wrong Board to debate this. With an Opti shareholder hat on, I do have some concerns over what the proceeds of the SBTX shares are being used for. If it is to be used to prepare for a sweetbiotix launch then fair enough, however, I suspect it is to be poured into marketing for first generation products that are at the end of their product lifecycle judged by the news that Weight Watchers are to file for Bankruptcy and SlimFast has been put up for sale as dieters increasingly shun meal replacements in favour of weight-loss jabs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/weightwatchers-prepares-bankruptcy-wsj-reports-2025-04-09/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/26/slimfast-on-the-block-as-dieters-turn-to-jabs/#:~:text=SlimFast%20has%20been%20put%20up,blockbuster%20drugs%20such%20as%20Wegovy.

To be fair to Bonkers whilst he has been consistently negative on this Board, when you read his 20 Dec 23 post you can understand with the tortoise like progress why.

"Extract from JUNE RNS

KEFI Gold and Copper plc (AIM: KEFI), is pleased to report that all outstanding major financing conditions precedent requiring Ethiopian government input in relation to the Company's Tulu Kapi Gold Project ("Tulu Kapi" or the "Project") have now been met.

AUG RNS

The Company's schedule for Tulu Kapi remains for community preparations to commence this quarter (Q3 2023), ahead of procurement and construction commencement next quarter (Q4 2023), all synchronised with the Government's continued upgrading of security, as already committed

SEPT RNS

Almost all the pre-requisites to begin construction are now in place. We remain focused on final credit and board approvals for the project financing, ahead of project launch in Q4 2023, with first production expected by the end of 2025.

ANOTHER SEPT RNS AND ANOTHER FINAL ACTION POINT

Ethiopian Capital Controls: the National Bank of Ethiopia ("NBE", the Ethiopian Central Bank) proclaimed and published a new NBE Directive on 8 September 2023 which satisfies the requests made to ensure conformity with the specific Project details. This was one of the final action points remaining to enable completion of the Tulu Kapi Project financing package;

OCTOBER RNS

This is the last of many special permissions and policy changes agreed with the Ethiopian authorities over the years since KEFI assumed control of the Project, to allow modern project finance arrangements to be applied given there has been no industrial-scale mine development in Ethiopia for over 30 years. Tulu Kapi is now finally fully-permitted with only procedural administrative confirmations remaining."

Should Kefi finally get the finance over the line and Major Work commences I am sure Bonkers will be popping the champagne with relief like the rest of us

Lord, the marketing was nothing to do with sbtx and all down to Croda. Interestingly, Boots with their new No 7 launch are going down the same marketing route so let's see how well that does

Yes agreed PG, just including the words from CEO Stuart Ashman that, “Zenakine™ isn’t just a product—it’s a new category" in a RNS would have helped to get the message over as to how much impact Croda expect this to have

Macq Bank opened their short to forward sell their remaining warrants which goes a long way to explaining the share drop.

Echo shychap's comments about Luceane and indeed see it as a real positive that Lucenace won the proven science award as Zenakine has been blended with Luceane as a Bioferment-infused reviving cream so happy days.

Start your day with a lightweight yet powerful reviving gel-cream that protects, energises, and fortifies your skin. Infused with Zenakine™ and Luceane™, It combats stress-induced and hypoxiageing™ for dynamic, more resilient skin and even complexion. Zenakine™ boosts skin energy, enhances stress.

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/products/product/5852-zenakine

Toyin, looks better there. If you click the pdf from the exhibitors product link you get a word version with tracked changes in it!

https://www.in-cosmetics.com/global/en-gb/exhibitor-directory/product-directory/product-details.exh-b41db3d4-6ddb-4f11-84e0-e7144a67c972.zenakine.pro-42c2bc67-4c4a-4c46-a0fa-51531606ae5c.html#/

Also, contrast the claims made with their other launch for Green Coffee; what happened to the known skin elasticity benefits associated with skinbiotix?