Member Info for AquaeSulis01

AquaeSulis, Roman name for Bath but don't bother with research because that requires effort.

They're even

Their back

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

Just based it on Singer's own matrixyl scenario but with the year earlier uptake already demonstrated through the adj ebitda reported figure which is a better guide than cash as discounts the unknowns surrounding the earn out etc. Should add it is conservative bearing in mind it is majoring on the neurocosmetic sleep and body rhythm rather that the skin elasticity, cell longevity ageing properties that are matrixyl's sole claim

Not ramping from me. The calls are performed based on the actual reported financials and Singer uplifts and assumptions

Based on the early revenue from Croda 2025 (as opposed to the original Singer note expectations of zero) derived from the Trading date Update what might a revised Singer note look like:

1. Croda Royalty Contribution (2025)

Forecast (no Croda): £5.1M revenue, Adj EBITDA loss of £0.3M.

Actual (with Croda): £4.6M revenue (including Croda royalties), Adj EBITDA loss still £0.3M.

Croda’s Contribution: Implied royalty revenue from Croda is £0.5M (core products underperformed by £0.5M, Croda royalties offset this).

Margin Impact: Croda royalties, likely at near-100% margin, lifted the gross margin from 56.9% (forecast) to 61.6% (actual)—an uplift of ~4.7 percentage points. Adj EBITDA margin improved by ~0.8 percentage points.

2. Revised Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 (with Accelerated Zenakine Uptake)

2026 (original): £4.0M gross profit on 63.9% margin (implies £6.26M revenue).

2027 (original): £5.7M gross profit on 69.8% margin (implies £8.17M revenue).

Revised (with Croda):

2026: Croda royalties double to £1.0M. New revenue: £7.26M. New gross profit: £5.0M. New margin: 68.9%.

2027: Croda royalties triple to £1.5M. New revenue: £9.67M. New gross profit: £7.2M. New margin: 74.4%.

3. Adj EBITDA Impact (2026–2027)

2026: With Croda royalties and margin leverage, Adj EBITDA is projected to be ~£0.8M positive (vs. breakeven/slightly negative originally).

2027: Adj EBITDA rises to ~£2.2M positive, reflecting stronger royalty flow and margin expansion.

4. Long-Term Royalty Projections (2026–2032)

Assumptions: Croda annual Zenakine sales grow from £5M (2025) to £150M (2032), at a CAGR of ~57–60%. Royalties are 10% of sales.

Annual Royalty Income:

2026: ~£1.05M

2027: ~£1.64M

2028: ~£2.60M

2029: ~£4.13M

2030: ~£6.17M

2031: ~£9.50M

2032: ~£15M

5. Strategic Implications

Croda’s high-margin royalty stream accelerates EBITDA breakeven and profitability for SkinBioTherapeutics, with minimal incremental cost.

By 2029–2032, annual royalties could fund full operating costs, support R&D, expansion, or dividends, and offer significant strategic optionality.

Yes it has been mentioned martinu and yes it most certainly possible and likely. That said, the likely significant advanced spend on Superdrug stock before FY 25 Year end would balance out the £0.5M earn out and achieving adj EBITDA targets despite missing Revenue targets by £0.5M points to significant Royalty receipts from Croda, but as Toyin points out, we just don't know.

All I will say is that previous EOY Trading Updates have also not been that detailed and we have been blindsided by a subsequent fund raise post their production for various reasons, this year no-one believes there will be any cash issues for running the Business which is quite a healthy position to be in.

The instagram would have been for investor benefit not end Customers. We need to wait for the shelf wobblers and more of the initial stores to put the products on their shelves over the coming weeks to judge whether the level of promotional material is sufficient to kick-start axisbiotix for new Customers

Dustbin, the SInger note does include Croda royalty revenues "We assume an uplift in FY26E gross profit margin to 63.9%, reflecting an improved sales mix, and Croda royalties which drop through to the bottom line, with gross profit therefore expected to be £4.0m.We assume a further uplift in FY27E gross profit margin to 69.8%, with gross profit therefore expected to be £5.7m reflecting an improving revenue mix from higher margin Croda royalties"

Consequently, a reminder of the Singer note expectations that SBTX is now using as setting it's own Market Expectations; Revenue £5.1M, Adj EBITDA loss £0.3M Cash £4.2M for 2025 this led to a Singer initial valuation of 29p for SBTX. Actuals were Rev circa £4.6M (a £0.5M miss), Adj EBITDA loss £0.3M (spot on despite revenue miss) and cash £4.8M (increase of £0.6M) which can only be due in part to a better than expected contribution form Croda royalties because we were told that a significant number of expected Dermatonics and BTS trades fell into July, and also the margins must have increased significantly to maintain the adj EBITDA projection.

So there has not been a material uplift on market expectations but neither has there been a material downgrade for 2025 and it is evident from the uplift in margin mix that 2026 promises to be much better than Singer forecasts when it comes to what matters, hard cash. Surely that is all a discerning and intelligent investor such as MD or many contributors here needs to know when making a decision whether Singer's initial 29p valuation or the current sp less than 15p represents fair value?

Toyin, all I am saying a that if someone believes that news is being suppressed to " let MD " buy on the cheap and they have cash available to buy more shares themselves, then fill yours boots as well rather than moan about it. Personally, I believe the Business excluding Cro da royalties, is now at break even, zenakine will be hugely successful, but I am unsure that the unexplained extra cash at year end was all down to early Croda royalties rather than cancellation of £500k of performance related Dermatonics acquisition costs.

Contender, like you I am frustrated at the sp but I would rather have a buyer soaking up the enforced Opti sells than not and as you have previously stated you have cash available to buy more SBTX shares, so nothing to stop you taking advantage of an artificial sp yourself

Timelines sound about right Disco.

For an ingredient like Croda’s Zenakine™, the timeline from official launch to appearance in customer-facing products typically spans 6 to 18 months, depending on several factors:

Development and Formulation Cycles

- Initial launch: Zenakine was formally introduced at in-cosmetics Global in April 2025.

- Formulation phase: Brands begin requesting samples and testing formulations immediately after launch. Croda provides example formulations (e.g., sleeping masks, serums, beauty mists) to accelerate this process.

- Product development: Consumer brands then adapt these prototypes, conduct internal testing, and align with marketing and regulatory timelines.

🏷️ Commercial Rollout Factors

- Fast adopters (e.g., indie or agile brands): May launch Zenakine-infused products within 6–9 months post-ingredient release.

- Established brands: Often require 12–18 months due to longer R&D cycles, packaging, compliance, and distribution planning.

- Retail shelf appearance: Depends on geographic rollout, channel strategy (online vs. in-store), and bundling with other actives.

Real-world indicators

Given Zenakine’s April 2025 launch and its positioning as a premium neurocosmetic active, you might expect initial consumer products to begin surfacing between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, especially in wellness-forward or sleep-focused skincare lines.

Here’s a layered synthesis of indirect signals around Zenakine™ uptake since its April 2025 launch:

Timeline Modeling: Shelf Appearance Lag

- Launch: April 2025 at in-cosmetics Global.

- Formulation phase: Croda released six prototype formulations (e.g., sleeping mask, beauty mist, face serum) to accelerate brand adoption.

- Expected shelf debut: Agile brands may launch Zenakine-infused products by Q4 2025, with broader uptake likely by Q2 2026.

Indirect Uptake Signals

1. Formulation Mentions

- Croda’s site lists Zenakine in multiple ready-to-use formulations, including:

- Adaptive relaxing face serum

- Timeless sleeping mask

- Bioferment-infused reviving cream

- These prototypes serve as templates for brand adaptation, often appearing in early-stage influencer kits or boutique launches.

2. Influencer & Industry Buzz

- Croda’s launch drew a standing ovation at in-cosmetics Global, with strong interest from formulators and distributors.

- BeautyWonks.com published a deep-dive on Zenakine’s neurocosmetic claims, highlighting its emotional uplift and sleep-enhancing effects—a signal that content creators are priming audiences for product rollout

https://www.beautywonks.com/can-a-topical-cosmetic-ingredient-literally-make-you-smile-exploring-zenakine/

Many thanks for the enabled link to the Croda Presentation, I have now managed to watch it. Obviously targeted at the formulators within Croda Customer organisations and does cover the full range of Zenakine benefits, the science behind it, and how it was clinically proven to work. This time next year Rodders.....

At last

https://www.superdrug.com/search/axisbiotix

Note,

Collagen supports skin structure, elasticity, and hydration, while retinol (a form of vitamin A) boosts cell turnover and stimulates collagen production (and Zenakine does both)

Thanks for the response shychap and it led me to re-watch the Technical Presentation and I think the "Swiss Army Knife" analogy by SA whilst Dass was talking through the many attributes that zenakine has which potentially renders retinol, matrixyl and a number of other Croda ingredients redundant, is both a blessing and a curse for Croda.

When you look at the many measured properties of zenakine that lead to Epidermis Reinforcement, skin longevity, melotin synthesis, contributing to stress response and cell regeneration allowing the skin to maintain skin homeostasis, stimulation of skin regeneration at 3% content level which increases collagen production1 by 36%, collagen IV by 67%, Fibronectin by +20% and laminins by 26%, you realise why Croda with their marketing, major just on the neurocosmetic benefits associated with melatonin synthesis, not just because it is a unique marketing angle but to maintain the product life of their other ingredients.

For instance the Timeless Sleeping Mask contains both Zenakine and DS-CERAmix-V™ but do you really need the latter described thus "Optimised ceramides and lipids composition bio-designed to deliver barrier function like that of healthy skin with well-balanced lipids. Multifunction liquid crystal lamellar delivery system, clinically proven to increase skin hydration and elasticity, while preventing water loss and providing itch relief to damaged skin. ​"?

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/formulations/formulation/8487-timeless-sleeping-mask

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/products/product/5810-ds-ceramix-v

Net, I thought you had watched the presentation but you obviously have not. Can someone who has watched the presentation advise whether it differed at all from the the technical presentation given at the Investor Meets please?

Did you watch the presentation net and if so, was there anything new in it?

Poor communications rather than a poorly performing and positioned Company is the issue here and the only reason for the false sp.

"Turnover’s vanity, profit is sanity and cash is a matter of fact." absolutely agree so with cash £700K better than expected despite the early unexpected spend on the Superdrug launch prior to end of Jun 25 all appears to be going better than expected but instead of shouting this from the rooftops to the Market, the Company have swept it under the carpet. For once the audited End of Year Accounts not preceded by a "keep the lights on" placement will be something to look forward to and if the sp hasn't already shot up in the lead up to the Results being released I'll be astonished and certainly adding the day before

Sounds like a pretty good excuse to me and one of the advantages of an in-store presence over online with the former acting as a subsequent catalyst for the latter also explains why Skinbio have not unilaterally launched axisbiotix-ac online themselves.

In-store shelf wobblers are attention-grabbing promotional signs attached to a shelf's edge via a flexible strip, causing them to "wobble" or move slightly to catch the eye of shoppers. They are a type of point-of-purchase (POP) marketing tool used to draw attention to specific products, special offers, or price changes.

How they work

Adhesive strip: A flexible, adhesive strip sticks to the edge of a shelf.

Protruding sign: A printed sign is attached to the strip and extends out over the aisle.

Movement: The flexible strip causes the sign to move or "wobble" with the slightest breeze or from a passing person, making it stand out from stationary signage.

Why they are used

Increased visibility: The movement helps the sign stand out and grab a customer's attention as they walk down the aisle.

Boost sales: Shelf wobblers can increase impulse buying and have been shown to boost sales.

Promote offers: They are ideal for promoting special offers, new products, or products on clearance.

Provide information: They can display key product details like prices, discounts, or even QR codes linking to more information.

Customizable: They are often custom-printed and can be designed in various shapes, sizes, and colors to fit a brand's needs.