George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
Heard the Sherrif of Aim has just released a version of the Mac Davis hit Oh Lord it's so hard to be humble
Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
when you're perfect in every way,
I can't wait to look in the mirror
cause I get better looking each day
To know me is to love me
I must be a hell of a man.
Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
but I'm doing the best that I can.
I guess you could say I'm a loner,
The Aim Sherriff tough and proud.
I could have lots of friends if I want to
but then I wouldn't stand out from the crowd.
Some folks say that I'm egotistical.
Hell, I don't even know what that means.
Some 34 years as a City Analyst
Other opinions aint worth a Hill of Beans.
Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
when you're perfect in every way,
I can't wait to look in the mirror
cause I get better looking each day
To know me is to love me
I must be a hell of a man.
Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
but I'm doing the best that I can.
I crossed swords with a pesky Hobbit
Making a hell of a din
Rattling on about a Dermatonics acquisition
I called it a loss he a win
Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
when you're perfect in every way,
I can't wait to look in the mirror
cause I get better looking each day
To know me is to love me
I must be a hell of a man.
Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
but I'm doing the best that I can.
We're doing the best that we can
Yeehaw!
Bel, now that we KNOW elrico has been proven right and that the Modi deal is not included in Cavendish figures then the following plays out as a real possibility for this year alone:
"Tom, you readily accept a forecast from SOH of £1.2M revenue alone from a prospective deal with an unnamed Indian Company for Functional Fibres to be manufactured and marketed in India by the partner when Opti generated just £433K revenues in total for the last reported difficult 2022 year. However, Dermatonics generated £1.82M revenue for that same difficult year and have negotiated a similar manufacture and market deal with a named Indian Company and et you refuse to contemplate it could make a similar impact to SOH's forecast."
Now bearing in mind that SOH is forecasting £1.2 in yr 1 alone, and nearer £5M per annum in later years IF the deal is concluded H2 (so for just half a year 2024), and as I pointed out Dermatonics products attract far higher revenue with the products now launched by Modi, then not unrealistic to expected revenues, or should that be cash, as Modi are bearing production and marketing costs, of at least £1M this year which will silence the doom merchants me thinks.
Hobbit 1 TW 0
Should add the following info to my earlier post which attempted to provide the bear and bull case regarding the Acquisition.
The 2024E figure in the Cavendish report represents the year ending Jan 2024 so is in fact 2023 Calendar Year figures making 2025E this current years expectations where they only allow 30% growth based on the following:
"Revenues – We expect ‘Dermatonics’ to launch a range of its products in the US via the Amazon
platform and for this to be a key driver of revenue growth in FY25E. Such growth is expected
to be supported by growth in Asia and Eastern Europe and on-going growth in the domestic
market, particularly to the NHS and podiatrist clinics"
This to my mind is nowhere near enough to include a launch into the Indian, Bangladesh, Nigerian, and Middle east markets, hence my debate with Tom who does present a logical argument as why it would have been included, but has it?
PG, I don't pretend to speak for elrico however, we do seem to share similar views on the value of the Modi deal.
Firstly the current Cavendish Forecasts for Dematonics are:
Revenues 2,000 FY 24E, 2,600 FY 25, 2,800 FY 26E growth 30.0% FY 25E 7.7% FY 26E
TW is correct in that as the deal was signed Jun 2023 the Cavendish analyst will have factored in his view on its worth although probably not for 2024 E as it was not expected to be ready for launch so early. I was one of the prodders that lead to TW in his excellent Bearcast yesterday patiently explaining why the analyst would have included his view of the deal, what is open to debate is whether the analyst has been too risk averse in his estimates, Elric and some others believe that is the case whilst TW does not. Hopefully, the following exchanges between TW and others explain the differences in opinion:
TW
As I explained, and you neglect to mention, the deal was signed LAST YEAR so the analyst will have factored it in.
I cant see how with the reorg cost and year 1 defcon Dermatnics will not bleed material cash this year. next year if forecasts are edged up it might just cover the defcon and so maybe by year 3 it covers it by a bit. But overall over the 3 years it will be a bleed and for that we have cricified the SP wirth the worst death spiral provider in town and it still has 1.43m to dump.
Response
Tom, you readily accept a forecast from SOH of £1.2M revenue alone from a prospective deal with an unnamed Indian Company for Functional Fibres to be manufactured and marketed in India by the partner when Opti generated just £433K revenues in total for the last reported difficult 2022 year. However, Dermatonics generated £1.82M revenue for that same difficult year and have negotiated a similar manufacture and market deal with a named Indian Company and et you refuse to contemplate it could make a similar impact to SOH's forecast.
TW
No I risk weight SOH's claims in my numbers as I made abundantly clear.
Response
Tom, thankyou for the excellent explanation in today’s Bearcast over how the Cavendish analyst will have operated and hence will have included something to represent the Modi deal contribution somewhere within within their forecast on a risk waited basis, it was well worth "kicking your tyres" to tease out this succinct and unemotional response.
I guess I am in the SOH optimistic camp and hope that both he and I am right about the size of the financial opportunity coming the way of both Opti and Skin, rather than the more risk averse approach both you and the Cavendish analyst have taken. What is not in dispute is the lousy deal SA struck to finance the acquisition, I just hope that with the unexpectedly early launch of the Dermatonics products by Modi ,that SA has lucked out with its timing in the same way that Cathal did when Covid struck shortly after forming Open Orphan.
Finished marginally in the blue on the NYSE so hopefully will gradually recover now
It is a relief that the facility is not going to be used for further acquisition after being told about the first conversion this was " a pilot conversion to ensure smooth facilitation of the process." I half expected to be told following this latest notice that they also had a co-pilot!
SA undoubtedly believed when he took out the loan that the acquisition would be seen as accretive and along with other news such as the acne progress, the share price would rise and hence make the loan less dilutive which of course has not proved the case. It didn't help that the RNS announcing the Modi partnership failed to make it crystal clear that any revenue resulting from the Indian market was not already factored in to the Cavendish forecasts. Tin hats on for the TW take on this rapid about-face
Things are even better for sweetbiotix than relayed in the latest RNS. Having spotted there was no mention of the standalone sweetbiotix product referred to in the sweetbiotix update RNS less than a month ago, I posed the following question and received the response below.
"One question regarding the sweetbiotix statement "The Company has included SweetBiotix® in a finished product for a large global partner with a view for an upcoming launch. The Company hopes to see SweetBiotix® in an increasing number of products launched throughout 2024." Does this mean that there is no longer an intention to first launch sweetbiotix as a direct bulk sugar replacement as announced in the sweetbiotix update less than one month ago?
"Discussions are ongoing but are likely to involve a phased introduction of SweetBiotix® products as a direct bulk sugar substitute and then introduced into OptiBiotix's and partners consumer products across an increasing range of applications. "
Response from SOH
"We still intent to launch sweetbiotix as a bulk sugar replacement. These two approaches are not mutually exclusive. We have been surprised and somewhat pleased that progress has been made so quickly with a large corporate in terms of inclusion in a final product."
So two shots at goal :)
Stop sitting on the fence HumptyDumpty, it wont end well for you, perhaps shares in Shell might be more up your street? :)
Taken from the Croda Results RNS today under Strategic Update, hopefully one of the Big Bet Projects spoken of , the launching of novel anti-ageing actives developed through collaboration between our biotech and high throughput screening centres in the UK, France and Canada, is ours.
Innovation is at the heart of what we do, creating new market and technology niches. We filed more than 100 new patents in 2023 and have stepped up our rate of innovation through more external partnerships, for example with Amyris and BSI for sustainable vaccine adjuvants. Even in the unprecedented market conditions that we have seen this year, customers are continuing to invest in new product development, drawing on Croda's deep scientific expertise and application-focused innovation. The foundation of our innovation model is internal R&D investment, applying the expertise of our scientists at our global innovation centres to meet customer needs. Our R&D teams now report directly into Consumer Care and Life Sciences, ensuring that our priorities are customer driven. This is complemented by 'big bet' projects often delivered with partners from our open innovation network which provides access to universities and SMEs, helping develop new intellectual property.
Strategic priorities
We are implementing specific strategic priorities to ensure our refocused portfolio delivers consistent top and bottom-line growth. Alongside our sector strategies we are (1) scaling biotech, (2) exploring acquisition opportunities to supplement organic capital deployment, (3) investing in fast growth in Asia, and (4) improving our customer and employee experience through our 'doing the basics brilliantly' programme.
'Scaling biotech' will transform our approach to sustainability, particularly in reducing customers' scope 3 carbon emissions. Projects are underway to develop bio-based fragrance ingredients, prioritising aroma chemicals which are used in a high proportion of our fragrance references. Our Beauty Care business is adding biotech-derived surfactants to our existing ECO range, and Beauty Actives is launching novel anti-ageing actives developed through collaboration between our biotech and high throughput screening centres in the UK, France and Canada.
Slimbiome fibres retail at £30k per tonne
Baz, what you need to appreciate is that these promising results are after 35 days and Skin replenishes every 40-56 days which means results will either be a lot more impressive or not so good, hence the caveat, but I know which outcome I am betting on
A reminder of the stated aim for each B/U to be profitable at least on a month by month basis by end 2023; From 2023 Aug Commercial Update; “Stephen O'Hara, CEO of OptiBiotix Health plc said: "We are making good progress on our aims of getting existing partners returning to forecast, bringing in new partners, particularly in the USA and Asia, and expanding e-commerce channels to grow online sales and reduce partner dependency. This is all part of plans for each business unit (USA, India, Ecommerce, B2B) to reach operational profitability, at least on a monthly basis by the end of the calendar year.”
So at the very least we should have been provided with the position for each B/U but we were only told about one B/U, e-commerce "E-commerce sales for 2023 were 287% up on 2022 driven by strong growth in China of gummies and large increases in Amazon Prime subscriptions. This progress led the consumer health business to profitability in October and November 2023". We know the first meaningful US order slipped into 2024 so probably mainly the royalty payment from the US partner circa £85K in 2023 for sweetbiotix. Any H&B and THG sales percentage increases are coming off a very low base, 2022 figures with a rough guess of how much to reduce regional sales for to allow for PBX sales inclusion are as follows;
Probiotix £24,000.00
Functional Fibres £433,000.00
TOTAL £457,000.00
Functional fibres by Region
UK (minus est £5000 PBX sales) £127,000.00
India £61,000.00
ROW (minus est £4000 pbx sales) £160,000.00
US (minus est £15000 PBX sales) £85,000.00
TOTAL £433,000.00
On the plus side, and it is a big plus, 2024 looks to be much healthier and the launch of sweetbiotix will be a game changer
Thanks BK, translation of the page below
"Dual-Level Support: SymbioLife® Cholesterol Control* provides support to our body on two levels, naturally normalizing cholesterol levels.
It contains the bacterium Lactobacillus plantarum LPLDL®, harnessing the significant impact of natural bacteria on our health. Intestinal bacteria, particularly of the Lactobacillus genus, can regulate our cholesterol levels by binding to cholesterol or incorporating it into their own cell membranes.
The specific intestinal bacterium Lactobacillus plantarum LPLDL® also increases our excretion of bile acids. As a result, our body produces more bile acids, which are essential for fat digestion, and in turn, removes cholesterol from the blood.
In addition to this, SymbioLife® Cholesterol Control contains phytosterols*, secondary plant compounds that possess a structure similar to cholesterol. When we consume phytosterols, our intestinal wall transports them into our body instead of cholesterol.
The remaining cholesterol in the intestine is then excreted with the stool, leading to a decrease in cholesterol levels"
Agree Dire, guess we have to wait for the partner to set up its manufacturing capability before an eventual launch then
Seed Health never announced the outcome of their clinical study into DS01 for treating Irritable Bowel Syndrome despite the clinical study finishing over a year ago so guess may well have been inconclusive which is a pity
Isn't this the same agreement announced in the Sep Results RNS?
" Closing of long-term commercial agreement with third largest supplement brand in Germany. The agreement is aiming at launching CholBiome® CH - our newest product line extension - in Germany during Q4 this year. The launch will eventually be broadened to include Austria and Switzerland."
Mol, because you do not subscribe to TW and his comments regarding the Cavendish broker forecast through to 2026 which he also provided access to, you will not appreciate the full context of the out of the blue comment you referenced. Of course SA would have known about this deal when carrying out DD an agreeing the price, what he didn't know was which year the partner would be ready to launch. As I have previously stated, the Indian market is huge and potentially will pay for the agreed fee many times over, we shall see.
In other words, there can be a number of years between a partner starting the manufacturing process until they are ready to supply and launch.
Mol, I suggest you look at a similar manufacturing, supply and distribution agreement signed by Optibiotix with Agropur on 24th Jan 2019 for slimbiome in the USA, Canada and Mexico which I believe and other such agreements that are still to conclude, to understand why the announcement that the launch has taken Skinbio by surprise and hence why it could not be included in the forecasts.