Member Info for aprogerson

I think the difference is sentiment and that the PI crowd have discovered ALBA but not (yet) GWMO despite getting a mention by Zak Mir once or twice. Decent tangible news flow here will change that for once and for all.

@Juxtapose Yes agreed this is really good news for all involved in Mali including HUM.
Sorry missed the reference .... BH is?

Gold price is taking a breather after this years rise and will move sideways while the Dollar strengthens. Gold and especially Silver producers have taken a big hit recently, but I think Q3 results with high 'sold-at' prices will steady the PM producers.

If the dollar strengthens some more as investors move into cash (Dollar) then IMHO expect gold to pull back some more maybe shedding as much as another $100/Oz. I am not expecting the dollar bounce to continue or investors to stay in cash for too long .... I think this is a gold pullback only and will continue on its bull run for a few years yet.

GMWO is an Explorer so the only thing I am interested in is finding something worthwhile sooner rather than later and let the gold/silver price do its thing. I am planning on near-term modest production at GWMO from spoil heaps and early near-surface deposits thrown up by the sampling and geo-phys ... anything bigger will come in its own sweet time.

Original Cu project was proved up and ready to go and is available to purchase or for JV. Check back to Nov-19 RNSs confirming new BoD and new strategy focused on Gold / Silver. Cu asset is now non-core awaiting disposal I guess?

@SH fingers crossed you get to raise a glass sooner rather than later. We know it is going to be good news and from research to date ARCM have a shed load of supporting soil sampling data and drill results to back it up across multiple targets. What we don't know (yet) is when and how much ... I am sitting on my hands for a while longer it seems.

The JORC compliant Cu asset alone underpins the current £4.5m MCap everything else is in this SP for free IMHO. GWMO doesn't even register on the investing radar so a sniff of anything solid from the current 100% funded 2020 programme underway using modern tech on historic Au / Ag properties will change that especially given prior grades found. The Olympic OMCO project is the one that I am really awaiting news on as that would put a rocket under the SP for sure ... and we KNOW it is there just need to find it.

Agreed a sniff of news and this will rerate rapidly to £10m+

Thanks for the input, much to think on. Personally I really like the risk : reward here and with near surface gold at Haties just south of Telfer. On the JV front GGP have not given NCM everything as they only JV'd on licences over Havieron itself and retain 100% of their other licences so any Rincon / NCM JV could do the same with Haties being 12-14km south of Telfer and near surface implies an open pit which would suit Rincon and Telfer.
@SB you are right of course any JV with a major means you give up a chunk but compared with minimal capital outlay and 30% vs 100% and massive PI dilution I know what I would choose as you then have a decent share structure + Cash to explore your other licences. Easy choice that any junior explorer would take every time as alternative is bleak

A very Positive Article Mr. Would be very nice to replicate some of what Newrange's success in the Walker Lane trend

ARCM might consider an Earn-In or sale of Cheyeza East project area and reserve the rights over the rest of its licence area until it has completed more work and/or giving AA right of first refusal over any eventual sale? Just a thought as the licence area is just huge!

I REALLY want to understand how far along ARCM is from Desktop Study > PFS > DFS timeline with ARCM Priority targets at Cheyeza East and Muswema given published data. IMHO the ARCM website is frankly rubbish and does little to present any of the projects, maps or sample / drill data in any useful way, shape or form. The RNSs and indeed Investor presentations make it difficult to get a chronology or indeed summary of drill data results to date by target.

ARCM presentation May-20 (before AA Exclusivity Agreement signed) says 17,000m drilled & 54k soil samples over all licence area plus 8,000 follow-on drill programme across 3 targets Cheyeza = 3km + Muswema = 3km + Fwiji = 2km. RNS also states:
> Q2 2020 Follow-On drill programme
> Q2/3 Cheyeza MRE
> Q3/4 Cheyeza Scoping Study

RNS 14-Jul-20 AA Exclusivity & Confidentiality Agreements signed ... initial 6-month agreement

RNS 21-Sept-20 Scant detail on Drilling results due to AA Agreement. Fwiji 9 holes completed of 8km (announced Jun-20 RNS). ALS soil samples x2,500 results received & looks like being modelled to target more drilling BUT no details. RNS also stated that ANY results would form part of AA Technical Review.

IMHO Cheyeza East has Tier1 deposit written all over it with high grade target 3,000m x 800m and over 68 holes drilled to date showing significant mineralisation up to 100m open at depth with best grades of 18m at 2.35% Cu and 39m at 1.47% Cu ... this supports an Open Pit shell approach with grades likely to be significantly ahead of other Zambian operational mines the nearest being Sentinel 40km away at 0.48% Resource & 0.55% Reserve grades.

Also IMHO ARCM is now drilling the **** out of Cheyeza, Muswema and Fwiji so it can establish 3x separate JORC compliant resources independently ahead of any 'trade sale' so it has a strong negotiating position whether this be for a full sale or Earn-In and eventual JV. I guess we are not going to get meaningful detailed results RNS for a while, but when we do I think they will be worth the wait.

Bottom line is ARCM get a better price for Reserves over Resources and/or the further along we are with PFS > DFS.

Value to AA is driven by the amount of economically retrievable ore, capital costs to build and run 1 or more mines and overall risk factors such as tax and/or political stability ... Zambia is certainly not for the faint hearted. IF there are more than 1 Tier1 deposits then economics improve very quickly especially if they are relatively co-located so processing facility can share ore feed from mines. If there is a good by-product that can help especially if it is something valuable like Cobalt.

Valuing a mining company:
https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf
Thanks to @TheBasher for sharing from GWMO BB

@Basher Stunning find and interesting (if dry) read... thanks for sharing

Do we have any information between us that would allow us to triangulate on what a fair market price Zambian Cu asset would be ignoring fact that ARCM does not own all of it, so we can compare like with like in the market? It would also be worth considering what Cu processing facilities AA have and where they are located as market value is not always same as value to the purchaser particularly if AA have nearby facilities with spare capacity or can be upgraded to take extra ore at minimal Capital cost.

Example of NCMs giant Telfer plant processing Au/Cu in Pilbara with 4 years to EOM. Along comes GGP with Havieron and recent Brecia discovery suddenly make Telfer circa $1000 AISC more like NCM Cadia Aisc of sub $300. Good GGP find but absolute game-changer for NCM Telfer economics. Understood this is not the same resources BUT processing considerations influence possible AA price and/or NvS ability to drive to a good sale price if he understand value to AA.

Interesting on a full sale then ARCM effectively becomes a cash shell. I wonder if there will be a dividend and retain a large chunk of cash for a new investment? Any ideas how a full sale may play out?

@PearSing have you got a better link as no info?

Okay so we now have a potential 'company maker' in our 28.4% of Rincon with large solid prospective Pilbara gold licences with a host of historic data from NCM (no less) confirming presence of gold at good grades. IMHO the 4x things that would trigger a series of serious rerates of current £3m MCap are in order:
(1) Rincon announce IPO and AUS$4-6m cash raise to fund licence exploration = 540km2 & multiple targets
(2) GUN confirms further buy-in to Rincon IPO to target 15% holding post-IPO = GUN confirmed intent & 15% target
(3) Rincon recompile historic dataset, produce model and complete infill drilling programme of new targets
(4) Rincon do a GGP style %Earn-In deal with Newcrest to help feed the monster that is Telfer 12km to the north of Hasties project and 25-30km NW of Westin Au / Cu project
The first 2 are nailed on but no confirmed timeline (as yet) and (3) is a given with (4) seems likely IF Rincon/GUN can sort out 1, 2 & 3 above.

Check lastest NCM website for their Corporate Strategy confirming Telfer mine EOL in 3-4 years hence headlong rush to bring GGPs Havieron Licence onstream ASAP. Artemis Resources also in a headlong rush to prove up their licences surrounding Havieron so Rincon is under-the-radar IMHO as no-one except GUN is looking in the other direction.

Check the Rincon vs. Artemis vs. GGP vs. NCM Telfer maps on pages 2 & 3 and tell me I'm imagining this as a very plausible scenario? https://www.artemisresources.com.au/index.php/investors-relations/announcements

@eimaj, nice holding. Sadly mine is a more modest 600k, but more than happy to keep it here as expecting uplift to £100m+ over next 12-18 months or sooner if AA ponies up with a decent %Earn-In and JV offer so ARCM avoids any large fund raising. Now that would be worth the 4 years wait following dead-ends typified by the Sturec and CASA forays .. still this is exploration so to be expected.
3rd time lucky methinks

Agree Mannan I expect great this for this project and it only cost them US$180k for the Olympic option = bargain! Just sitting on my hands for the next 8-12 weeks when I am hoping that the surveys results will start to feed through ... sooner will make my year especially if they find the OMCO extension which we KNOW is there somewhere! Bonanza grades expected compared with modern mines 1 to 2g/ton, the real question will be as always size