Member Info for aprogerson

@basically, I hope GWMO comes good for you too, that's a long time to wait.
ATB APR

@riseagain honestly sorry to hear of your past losses> I had same troubles with PREM and REM to name but 2 so absolutely feel your pain as both ISAs and SIPPs got trounced ... just not nice. I dropped a couple of notes back on PREM 2/3 weeks ago for same reason as you are doing here so contrary to what you may believe I get it.
However, we are all grown up and need to go into our investments with our eyes open and manage our own risks as best we can given what we are told by the BoD and can glean from our own research and experience.
I like others here are more than happy to listen, share, discuss and hopefully learn and would value your perspective if you are happy to share constructively? It looks like GWMO has moved on and I hope that you can too.
ATB APR

@san someone is clearly not too bothered about the exact price as long as they get their large tranche of shares ... speaks absolute volumes (pun intended)
APR

@Tiger ,,, could you point me at some details on Sustainable please and their interest in HUM?
APR

Not sure what to make of this latest acquisition. Anyone care to share their views and/or analysis?
APR

The other thing to watch out for is major institutions and pension funds starting to make higher allocations to gold as Buffet led the way with Barrick others are now following particularly as pensions investing in todays bonds are getting negative guaranteed returns ... how is that sustainable when mining majors offer dividends and possible capital growth? If the dollar backed fiat money system gets reset, as many think it surely must, where is their insurance?

We've seen the big capital inflows to Gold ETFs, GDX and GDXJ which need to buy gold and/or mining stocks which will drive up prices albeit with increased volatility which is partly why I avoid pure silver plays.
Interesting times
APR

Understood @riseagain, but clearly their broken drills were good enough to prove up the Cu resource as it is now Jorc compliant. I'm not in a position to comment on past history pre-Nov-2019 and frankly I'm not interested as the asset is now non-core. Since Nov-19 the new BoD seem to have done exactly what they said they were going to do and backed it up with regular updates and a well documented website with a host of project details on highly prospective licences.
I guess that makes me gullible? Time will tell but hey that's my risk isn't it what I do with my GGP top-slice is my business?
APR

Okay @hertstrader you've got my attention now ... 2x Buys of 37.5m 2 days apart, now that is a very particular number and looks like someone is now sat on at least 3.5% which is of course declarable. All told a LOT of shares bought
Today
37.5m buy @0.30p 08:02 30-Sept-20 = 1.75%

Tuesday ... choppy market & big price swings
2x10m +1x20m +1x15m after hours marked as Sells, but who knows
8m buy @0.30p 11:05 29-Sept-20 = 0.4%
15m SELL @0.028p 08:47 29-Sept-20 = 0.7% ... mis-type 0.028p rather than 0.28p so likely a Buy
20m buy @0.38p 08:00 29-Sept-20 = 0.9%

Monday .... steady market almost straight up with 4x buys or 9.85% shares
50m buy @0.29p 15:32 28-Sept-20 = 2.3%
37.5m buy @0.25p 13:48 28-Sept-20 = 1.75%
90m buy @0.23p 12:28 28-Sept-20 = 4.2%
35m buy @0.23p 12:27 28-Sept-20 = 1.6%

@riseagain I've read the RNSs and looked at the SP pre-Nov-19 when they had to recapitalise with a placing at a 53% discount doubtless before they went bust. New BoD, new Gold/silver focussed strategy, recapitalised, fully funded 2020 programme plus cash coming in from warrants that are now 'In the Money' plus the JORC compliant Cu asset that GWMO was built on has not gone away.
Sorry what was the point you were trying to make?
APR

Trying not to look at this BB and failed. Results eagerly anticipated !
APR

@Golden Bull What drew me to HUM was the cash generation and near-term ability to pay down its debt. What will keep me here are the 12-18 month growth prospects funded from cash. Once analysts get their hands on Q3 numbers & start discounting the worst of the assumed political risk the SP will rise; once we hit Year-end and factor in the project activity with firmer progress and reducing timeline risk that should also give the SP a nice kick.
IMHO the market will want to see demonstrable progress given the political risk before HUMs SP sees the benefit. Longer term the BoD are positioning HUM for some serious growth with 2-3 times current gold production and stable AISC from what I can see which will feed straight through to bottom line profit and cannot be ignored.
APR

@Rich ... looks like a very well behaved uptrend channel to me with higher highs and higher lows ... what's not to like assuming you are long of course!
APR

@wraith agreed, any 2nd big US stimulus (and we know its coming) will reverse recent dollar strength that sent gold sideways and should give all commodities especially PMs a nice lift.
I particularly like HUM for the recent progress on multiple fronts all to be funded from free cashflow as us poor PIs get a fair share of the spoils
APR

Nice article so I am not going completely mad then?
APR

The economics of even small-scale gold / silver production add up really quickly. If we assumed that GWMO could get to 1,000oz Gold production per annum using £1,300/oz realised price (well below spot) and they could achieve 90% metal recovery. We know that the Olympic project has 41,000t of historic tailings ore grading 1.6g/t Au gives us 2,080oz Au recoverable and lets say GWMO took 2 years to process this with small scale plant. This gives 1,040oz/year production or £1,35m revenue which at a P/E 10 valuation assuming wild-guess 50% costs (including paying US$150k Olympic option) & is almost the same as todays MCap without any of their other assets or any further progress on any of their prospective licences.

Of course this is all IMHO, over-simplified and complete conjecture, but it doesn't take very much to go right for the downside risk at this SP to disappear. If any of their high grade targets are realised then the cost base also drops quickly as you are mining & processing less ore per realised AuOz so profitability per oz can rise quickly.

My view is someone has taken a straight 'punt' on a future gold / silver producer as the downside risk of taking a large stake on what was a £3-4m MCap future producer is IMHO very small given they have a JORC compliant Cu asset to sell or JV if things did not work out with a total GWMO NAV of £5.9m NAV as per H1 Results @30-Jun-20. The upside potential is absolutely enormous given GWMO guidance of 500koz to 1,500koz or at £1,450/oz equates to £725m to £2,175m total value if realised.

We know that GWMO has no established Au / Ag declared JORC compliant resources or reserves so everything is just conjecture at this point, but if it was realised and GWMO could grow its resource base across its 60km2 licence areas then yesterdays MCap would be a distant memory. If almost any of GWMOs current assertions for any of their licences can be proved up then this share would rerate in multiples very quickly indeed on an Exploration basis alone. IF GWMO can in parallel (as they have stated) get small scale production going then they could fund their exploration from free cashflow avoiding large scale PI dilution which makes them a VERY attractive junior explorer / producer with lots of room to grow.

Curiously and for the avoidance of doubt I am heavily invested ... if only it were 1%

@hertstrader, we know that 21.58m shares =1% of GWMO so the BIG transaction yesterday and smaller ones today are significant. We a MCap this small it is cheap to take a big chunk, the surprising thing for me yesterday that the sheer quantity of shares were actually available to the MMS to sell in the first place.... almost 10% of available shares!! Today there were lots of smaller transactions with the notable ones listed below albeit in a very choppy market so buys and sells are less clear.

Strategic stake, sorry only the forthcoming TR1s will tell us and we know to expect at least one of those as a 90m buy is notifiable.

Today ... choppy market & big price swings
2x10m +1x20m +1x15m after hours marked as Sells
8m buy @0.30p 11:05 29-Sept-20 = 0.4%
15m SELL @0.028p 08:47 29-Sept-20 = 0.7% ... mis-type so likely a Buy
20m buy @0.38p 08:00 29-Sept-20 = 0.9%

Yesterday .... steady market almost straight up with 4x buys or 9.85% shares
50m buy @0.29p 15:32 28-Sept-20 = 2.3%
37.5m buy @0.25p 13:48 28-Sept-20 = 1.75%
90m buy @0.23p 12:28 28-Sept-20 = 4.2%
35m buy @0.23p 12:27 28-Sept-20 = 1.6%

GWMO have been very clear that they have produced gold ... yes a button! However they are also equally clear that they are planning to start gold production later in 2020 at their HQ or via contract processing and they are initially targeting spoil heap tailings.

From the Company presentation of 7-Sept-20 @ http://www.greatwesternmining.com/file-manager/presentations/september-corporate-presentation-070920-2121.pdf
(1) Mineral Jackpot - licence to extract 900t, but no grade has yet been established or total resource that I can find
(2) Olympic - Exploration & Appraisal work only until US$150k option exercised, but contains 41kt grading 1.6g/t ... this equates to approx. £3m revenue @£1,450/oz gold @90% recovery however costs and viability have not been published

RNS 29-Sept-20 H1 Post-Period End states:
• Work commenced on Olympic Gold Project where surface sampling assays up to 21.50 ppm Au and
37.30 ppm Ag in surface dumps and stope material confirm precious metal enrichment potential
• Tests in progress on spoil material at Mineral Jackpot in preparation for leaching

Let's be honest with ourselves here 'Gold produced' is NOT the same as 'Gold production'; the first is an event in this case a one-off button to prove there is gold there and the second is an ongoing process of ore in and golds out ... lots on posters on this BB are confusing the two and that is NOT helping anyone here. Can we please stop?

@Chisler You're not kidding ... that turned around quickly