Member Info for aprogerson

@2goals thanks for the feedback and yes makes perfect sense. Sounds like they will only consider more debt to fund strategic purchases as almost everything else will be funded from free cashflow.
APR

@jolly We all know HUM is undervalued, is well managed, will become a multi-asset Junior to mid-tier gold producer over the next 18-24m, but what 'might' that do to the SP? If I look at Price Action, Gold Price and gold production as indicators what does this tell us about HUM?
> Gold Price vs Q3 Interim profit ... H1 realised gold price was $1,621 (RNS 26-Aug-20) SP expect this to rise in Q3 to minimum $1750/oz so if production guidance and AISC $936/oz is maintained. IF true implies +$129/oz or +19% profitability with similar uplift to come into year-end if current $1900 sticks. so strong POSITIVE for SP
> Political risk ... is reducing so POSITIVE for SP
> Debt repayment ... HUM targets paydown by end H1 2021, if profit higher into Q4 could be brought-forward so strong POSITIVE for SP
> LOM Extension ... good newsflow with drilling results so POSITIVE for SP especially if reduces AISC at Yanfolila mine
> Dugbe / Kouroussa progress ... positive progress will derisk so more value will be assigned so POSITIVE for SP
> Dividend ... introduction of a modest Divi following debt repayment and strong free cashflow generation would make the market sit up and take notice so very strong POSITIVE for SP given that it is off-the-radar

Price Action has frankly perplexed me as SP was 39.5p in Nov-2017 and even more perplexing was 65.5p in Mar-2014 before gold cratered from $1400/oz. We are now comfortably above that price and yet the market is currently valuing HUM 70% below Mar-14 with gold/profits significantly higher, Yanfolila derisked and multi-asset production in the pipeline over the next 2-4 years.
On that basis I can see no plausible reason why HUM should not rerate to 39.5p in the very short term to 65.5p plus as Q3 and full year results come through and the market digests them. Note: the last time gold was $1900 in Jul/Aug-2011 the HUM SP was bouncing around the 120 to 160p range and HUM was an Junior Explorer with no production and a 2Moz MRE for the Dugbe project in Liberia. Seems absolutely bonkers when you look at what HUM is now and where is will be in 2 years time!
All IMHO as DYOR as I might be making all this up ... I'm not!
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@san 100% agreed. I've taken my position here and await the outcome.
IMHO Junior explorers are never 'low' risk, but for me it is balancing off the risk/reward given what we now and how long you are willing to wait. As I hold most of my investments in a SIPP most of my positions have a 2-5 year window to my target SP so daily ups and downs are a distraction yes, but really just noise.
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Despite the slow newsflow and all the reasons for it highlighted by Fulmar and others the ARCM SP seems remarkably stable trading in a gently rising channel between 3.9p and 4.6p established 5-Aug-20 on the daily chart. Looks like there are a lot of patient PIs that are just sat on their holdings awaiting the good news they know is coming .... but just not sure when.
NvS needs to update the market and explain what is going on and reset the timeline and/or AA exclusivity period accordingly unless he has a 'cunning plan' then he ought to outline what that might be.
DYOR APR

Unfortunately without news GWMO is currently trading sideways with signs of weakness as it has not maintained 0.275p support which is now resistance. On the plus side the price rejected breaking down below the Fib 61.8% retracement @0.25p from its recent top @0.355p. If that doesn't hold then we may revisit strong support at prior consolidation @0.185p, but I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that.

IMHO GWMO needs to pull its finger out and provide a material progress update on (1) drilling & sampling programmes (2) tailings licencing and/or processing (3) OMCO extension
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@bumbleHum Thanks for pointing out the Investors Chronicle item on HUM. Simply it summarises everything we already know about HUM and why we think it is both undervalued and set to shine ... a must read. As an aside it also flags up Shanta Gold for the same reasons (not invested in SHG)
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Interesting 10% swing on minimal volumes. Nothing sizeable after hours either. Very strange

A number of posters have alluded to this as a possibility / necessity in order to reset global fiat currencies. The IMF has created SPDRs as a supra-national currency as a possible alternative to the US$ and has the ability to 'issue' them to 'back' fiat currency in a similar way to gold once did under the gold standard pre-1971. Lots of industry commentators suspect another currency reset in now inevitable given the amount of money printing being undertaken by governments accelerated even more by Covid19 or rather bringing forward any 'reset' event.

IF the IMF do a global currency reset underpinned by gold then figures of $10k-$12k/oz have been touted around by various industry recognised gold gurus, but as the rate at which new money is being printed is accelerating then the real figure is anyone's guess. Read J Rickards 'New Case for Gold' written in 2016 for insight, he quotes $10k/oz if global currencies were 40% back by gold; a few things have happened since then and global debt is far higher.

Western banks keep talking down and/or directly undermining the gold price, but governments are repatriating their own gold stored offshore and governments such as China and Russia are very heavy buyers, keep their home produced gold & provide poor disclosure about just how much they really hold ... draw your own conclusions.

Regardless of a possible reset, gold dues well when real interest rates are positive especially when they are comparable or higher than bond yields; gold does less well when the dollar strengthens assuming folk continue to trust the Fed in which case both gold and the dollar may go up in tandem!
As always DYOR
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@yajnas My targets are assuming gold at $1,900 however what we are REALLY interested in is that any gold production is ECONOMIC or rather can turn a decent profit = £Gold price realised - £AISC.

Gold Price ... GMWO do not control this, but most suspect it will go sideways at worst and more likely up over the next 12-18m as the current gold Bull run picks up again.

AISC ... GWMOs is not a gold producer so we have no historic AISC data. GWMO have stated that they will focus on tailings for first gold production using their Marietta base and contract services. On that basis I have previously estimated 50% costs or an effective AISC circa $950/oz with a 90% recovery rate.

Profit ... using the above assumptions applied to the known 41kt tailings grading 1.67 g/t gets us to £3.1m revenue or about £1.4m profit once the Olympic $150k option fee has been paid so we own the licence.

This is why GWMO BoD have tailings as their stated preferred route to first gold production as someone else has already dug it up for us so it just needs to be dug/picked up and transported for crushing & processing.
DYOR APR

Lots of talk about SP targets, but you need to look at the MCap of £7m as a starting point, work through the 'event's that might move the MCap and work back to the SP. My top trumps in order of probability over next 6-9 months are:
> Jackpot tailing grades above 1.5g/t, total ore volume to be confirmed and 900t mining licence extended = add £3-5m to MCap as it derisks share
> Olympic tailing @1.67g/t & 41kt 'mining' and processing commences (2100oz contained gold @90% recovery =£3.1m revenue - $150k project option cost) = add £3-5m to MCap as it derisks share
> Any drill hits any gold mineralisation above 3g/t = add £5-10m to MCap
> Any drill hits any gold mineralisation above 10g/t = add £10-25m to MCap
> Olympic OMCO extension discovered !!! = serious multi-bag to MCap £35m +
My personal SP target is 1.4p or £35m MCap over the next 6-9 months given one or more of above occurring is very likely
DYOR APR

If the copper is shallow, in quantity and over 0.5% Cu then its commercial ... just look at Sentinel et al in Zambia to see how they have made it work for them. If there are also metal credits even if it is 0.5g/t gold then that can lift its value significantly.
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Thankyou Sanboy .. that is indeed THE question.
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Flippin' heck @riseagain.
No matter what you ask us and what we reply to you insist on repeatedly copying and pasting the same 'over the last 15 years mumbo jumbo' or variations on it accompanied by dire warnings. We all know this is AIM and GWMO is an explorer and not many explorers get to production and we except that risk.

What part of this is a new BoD with a new strategy (RNS Nov-2019) and the JORC compliant Copper asset hasn't gone away was not clear? I'd take the time to point you at all the materials (again) but I think I'd be wasting my time ... and you wonder why you get short shrift from posters on this BB?
Carry on and you could well be my first ever blocked poster as no context, no balance, doesn't listen and doesn't read
GLA APR

I been sat on my hands with ARCM now my hands have gone numb!
Like you @555sss I also want the 'right' answer and if it takes 2-3 more months then NvS ought to say so
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Consolidation above 0.275p .... looks like wishful thinking on my part then

Looks like a bit of healthy consolidation at 23.1p prior neckline resistance hopefully forming decent base for next leg up.
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That is consolidation ABOVE 0.275p support and then steady rise = perfect!
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Steady rise after sensible consolidation following recent rise would be perfect
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@SocialistB The other way of looking at it is 712,500 shares at IPO price of CAD$0.40 =£165k at a cost of £58k as ZTR had been written down to zero. Agreed that gives us 1.13% of enlarged Angold share base but this now has prospective Gold & Copper licences plus CAD$8m or £4.65m in the bank with a pre-IPO MCap of CAD$25m or £14.5m.
Using this 'lens' Angold SP would need to drop to 35% of IPO price for us to be out-of-pocket or this is a 3-bagger at IPO!
APR

@GB I've taken my first GGP top-slice and put a chuck here as a medium term 2-5 year play as HUM move out of the 'turnaround', pay down remaining debt and move into strong growth over the next 2 years. Kouroussa has the potential to add another 100koz production, but is 18-24m years away from production start so will ramp up output whilst Dugbe is probably 4 years away IMHO

My assessment is that HUM is tightly run with an effective management team and an equally good growth strategy underpinned by canny project choices. BunkerHill is the wildcard I have written off (in my mind) to zero, but may yet come good if Silver as I expect picks up and moves north of US$50 in the next 6-12 months. HUM is making circa $700/oz using H1 figures which I am expecting to rise to $850/oz in H2 as average realised gold price lags spot price by 3 months or so. Assuming gold holds at $1900 then H1 2021 will move upto $950/oz profit. IF this plays out I expect HUM can pay off its remaining debt late 2020/ early 2021, which sends a very strong message to the market for at least a modest rerate given the political situation in Mali has also stabilised.
As always DYOR
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