Member Info for aprogerson

LOL Fulmar, perhaps we could buy in and call them Gold EVs and watch our investment double again?

Peter Ruse is also FD of Rogue Baron ... I wondered what the connection was.

Investors Presentation ... very interesting https://www.roguebaron.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/RB-Investor-Deck-2020-1.pdf

@d.Monies Maybe you are right and usually I steer well clear of InvestCos for the very reasons you stated ... BUT I'm betting with my own money on their 28.4% pre-IPO shareholding in Rincon who are sitting on some pretty interesting territory just 12km south of NewCrest's huge Telfer Copper/Gold mine in Pilbara, WA which is currently undergoing a frenzied licence land grab after Greatland struck a lot of gold at its Haverion licence.

Curiously we already know that they have gold there at or near surface unlike GGP under 420m of barren cover and we know this because Newcrest Mining own exploration teams found it and logged over 22km of drill results before shutting down Telfer and selling off all its licences. Rincon also owns some other larger licence areas SE of Telfer also drilled by Newcrest with some similar results.

Of course I maybe unlucky and they are indeed a dud, but at MCap = £2.73m of which £750k or 27% is cash and assets with nominal value of £2.16m @16-Oct-20 ... I'll take a punt on that risk/reward thank you very much and if any of their other investments come to anything I'll take that as a bonus but not why I am invested.
AIMHO & DYOR
APR

@setanta Appreciated thankyou.

@serendipity I'll admit I'm no accountant so limit myself to assets, cash and what I can safely glean from RNSs and the like. Regardless the accounts look backwards so may indicate repeating parts of the OPEX 'burn rate' such as salaries and other fixed costs, but we have had no indication (that I can find) for the 2020 drilling and exploration programme cost. All we have from the BoD statement is that it is fully funded.

As I stated earlier @riseagain is right in that at some point the BoD will need further revenue to fund further exploration, development and/or capital to setup small scale gold/silver production facilities. However as I have tried to point out that there are a number of ways of doing this that could minimise share dilution going forward particularly if the BoD can get a small scale gold/silver tailings production underway using 3rd party contract facilities and/or labour.

I have X-referenced some of my prior musings on what this might look like and the recent Op Updates indicate that it ought to be viable subject to GWMO securing a mill and 3rd party sub-con resource to run it ... all of which doesn't sound very spectacular, but follow the numbers and if they can also sort out an economic approach to leaching the remining ore after gravity separation it could help them generate a revenue stream and turn a profit sooner rather than later.

A lot of ifs and buts in there, but I am encouraged that so far they are following their production route map they laid out. Also GWMO are developing their licences against a backdrop of an early stage gold /silver bull run which is why they are struggling to secure equipment, drilling rigs and 3rd party sub-cons ... and Covid complicates it all.

We know that GWMO licences also have historical evidence of having had very high grade, shallow ore veins which IF more were found would indicate relatively low costs per ounce of metal giving GWMO potentially high leverage to metals prices; this is why they are so keen on finding an extension to the Olympic OMCO vein.
AIMHO APR

Always nice to have a following wind and just waiting for Silver to break above $25/oz

@riseagain I don't pretend to have the answer all I can go by is what I read in the RNSs, what is the context with gold & Silver in the real world and direction of travel plus what I think of the BoD's performance. On balance I am positive for GWMOs performance and progress to date given the Covid related delays and think the strategy they have is sound. Whether they can deliver on it and how prospective their licences turn out to be is where we as PIs 'pay our money and take our chances'.

My observation is GWMO is a micro-cap at an early stage of exploration with no revenue stream so (as we have seen) is very volatile. On the plus side if ANY of their licences produce almost anything of substance the SP will rerate dramatically and on the downside if it all goes to nothing then the Copper Jorc compliant asset underpins about 90% of the current MCap (RNS 26-Sept-20 NAV=£5.8m)

Simply no guarantees but my own research gives me the comfort to invest and all things being equal stay invested; if things change I may change my view.
AIMHO & DYOR
APR

The only blue share in my portfolio today!

I make the 3.75m warrant shares since 4-Aug-20 about 1% of the approx 360m traded volume since that date so hardly a showstopper. I suggest the everyone has got their position and is sat on their hands waiting for NvS news to be a more likely explanation.
APR

We have only had 4x RNSs for Warrant exercise since Jul-20 AAL announcement for total of 3.74m shares @3p for £112.1k or 0.27% of todays MCap. Whilst I agree it could form an overhang it doesn't seem onerous to say the least!

The SP has been trading in a very stable 10-week long uptrend channel since 3-Aug-20 @3.6p now at 3.9p channel bottom with current indicated channel uptrend top at 4.7/4.8p. I can see at least 3 full churns as the buy/sells wash through since then so not sure how much can be left?
APR

@riseagain We both know the reality is their is no gold or silver until it is proved up and/or GWMO decide to just dig it up and process it. The whole point of being in exploration is:
(A) acquiring one or more prospective licences,
(B) exploring licences and/or soil sampling to identify viable targets
(C) drill identified targets
(D) assay drill cores
(E) model results
(F) wash & repeat (B) to (E)
(G) prove up (or not) a JORC compliant resource
(H) sell, JV, produce yourself and/or hire 3rd party on Earn-In
If majors were interested they would have bought the licence themselves. Junior explorers exist because they (and their shareholders) take the risk and/or the reward/loss depending on the outcome. Anything else is just a delusion.
Did I miss something?
APR

@pasa Not sure what point you are trying to make as GWMO are not (yet) mining and/or producing so the Environmental Regs are all very interesting but so what? If you look at US based companies such as Midas Gold they are basing their whole strategy around remediation of historical mine working and tailings with huge support locally right up the governmental chain.

GWMO are currently targeting production from tailings so Environmental grants may be relevant going forward so I guess will form part of their economic assessment for MJ and/or Olympic tailings operations. Any future mining operations will be subject to licencing and Environmental considerations/approvals will be part of that.
AIMHO APR

GWMO is a gold/silver explorer as per RNS 13-Nov-19 when fresh BoD and strategic direction was presented with prior JORC compliant Copper resource put up for sale or JV ... there for everyone to read.

I have counted 1x RNS with a new venture (Olympic Gold) declared and a further 14x RNSs with the BoD providing operational updates on one or more of their licence areas over the last 11 months since Nov-2019 BoD & strategic change.

Junior Explorers need funds to continue and there are a number of ways that can be done as everyone invested in this sector should know and understand:
(1) raise funds directly via new shares
(2) raise funds by issuing new shares as warrants are exercised
(3) generate revenue form sales ... Copper asset up for sale & await outcome
(4) generate revenue from production ... gold/silver small scale tailings production being progressed
(5) enter into JVs on one or more licences to prove up and/or produce revenue from production

Cash position has been declared RNS 29-Sept-20 in unaudited H1 accounts to end Jun-20:
> Cash and cash equivalents = £430,952
> Placing & Warrants since 30-Jun-20 = £1,330,000
> 2x Exercise of warrants = £97,000 (RNS of 2 & 8-Oct-20 refers)

My personal views:
The BoD are doing what they said they would do and exploring these licences in order to prove them up with the aim of getting an economic return and/or achieving small scale gold/silver production not withstanding disruption from Covid earlier in the year. Any BoD worth their salt will be trying to balance cash at hand with cash going out to fund works with cash coming in from any of the above to keep the company solvent. Will they be successful? You pays your money and takes your choice.

I have produced a number of summaries IMHO since buying GWMO 15-Sept20 using available info and/or comparables wrt:
(1) outline of "Small Scale Tailings Production" revenues & costs on @15-Oct-20 post
(2) "Targets & MCap" @7-Oct-20 post
(3) "GWMO = Gold and Silver Exposure" = @3-Oct-20 post
(4) "Gold Production" = @29-Sept-20 posts
(5) "Re: Week Ahead" active warrant analysis = @20-Sept-20 post
(6) "RE: Placings vs. Warrants vs. Cash to hand" = 16-Sept-20 post

As always DYOR as I am clearly a 'ramper', but I do try to add some original thought and/or context so happy to engage in constructive discussion rather than just asserting that the company or the BoD is rubbish ... please see my posts elsewhere on other BBs if you are in any doubt.
APR

Thanks Chisler appreciated. Clearly charts can help identify market inversion points, but can only indicate overall market direction, but doesn't mean it will go in a straight line so good research & risk management is vital when making your own investing decisions.
AIMHO & as always DYOR
APR

@Dave RNS 15-Oct-20 gives Operations Update with routemap to first production ...
"The Company is focused on producing first gold and silver from the MJ operation this year and has continued to make good progress as it develops this mineral rich asset, where work in progress consists of:
· Transportation of bulk material from the high altitude site
· Assaying material and commencement of a leach testing programme
· Further evaluation of long-term production options
· Processing first gold and silver via a gravity separation circuit
......... Great Western's immediate aim is to prove up the concept of recovery from spoil heaps in 2020 by producing first gold and silver. "
> current approval for MJ licence allows for removal of up to 900t of spoil heap material .... "and will deliver 25 tonnes during October."
> Recent "fire assay of crushed and pulverised sub-samples, reporting 2.28 grams/tonne gold plus 658 grams/tonne silver "
> Recent lab tests showed "achieved 87% gold recovery and 46% silver recovery from a 48 hour leaching process.

"Great Western Chairman Brian Hall commented: "We are on track to produce our first precious metals from the spoil heaps at Mineral Jackpot and to prove our concept. Until the recent completion of laboratory testing, we could not be sure that gravity separation would be a viable option for producing gold and silver from Mineral Jackpot, but I am now pleased to report that we believe it is. In the immediate term, therefore, we expect to produce gold and silver through gravity separation while for the longer term we will develop an optimised leaching facility, based on the data acquired from the ongoing extensive testing programme, to achieve a higher long-term recovery rate. We will provide further updates as appropriate."

RNS 12-Oct-20 Strategic Report / Overview states
"The Kalaba copper-cobalt project benefits from a CSD plant which has been refurbished, however given the relatively small size, the plant requires a higher-grade ore feed. Cheyeza could provide this feed and the plant is on standby while grade modelling and metallurgical testing are in progress at Cheyeza East. In June 2019, the Company commenced a diamond drilling programme focussing initially on the Cheyeza East area. Initial results demonstrated pervasive mineralisation with intersections of 28.5m at 1.32% Cu including 13m grading 2.31% and 18m at 2.35% Cu including 7.60m grading 4.15% Cu. Further drill holes intercepted 1.27% over 32m including 2.05% Cu over 17.50m and 2.79% Cu over 10.50m. The Company identified a mineralised area at Cheyeza East of 650m long and 300m wide."

Sounds very promising and yet focus seems to have moved on to Fwiji "In June 2020, the Company commenced with a further 8,000 meter diamond drilling programme with hole depth of between 100-250m. The exploration programme is initially focussed on the Fwiji target where the Company has already defined the target area through previous exploratory works. Follow up work at a number of the other target areas, including Cheyeza and Muswema are also underway."

Why would ARCM not focus on getting a MRE at Cheyeza East first? There must be more method than madness here .. .so what don't we know?
AIMHO APR

Coverage just started with a 'Stay in cash' and Market Outlook of "The market is finally giving hints of a bullish resurgence. Today a bullish pattern is detected."
That would have been me being spiked for my top-up .... live & learn!
APR

... and just to keep us on our toes "expected imminently and ..... will follow shortly"

... just in case we need a gentle reminder while we sit on our hands and/or accumulate
"Further, since the beginning of this year we have seen a significant increase in interest from major mining companies that are all seeking to replenish their existing copper resource inventories and/or looking for a new prospective exploration ground for world-class copper discoveries. To that end, we have continued to have a number of discussions with major diversified mining groups. These discussions culminated in us signing a 6-month exclusivity agreement with Anglo American in July. This exclusivity agreement will allow Anglo American to have its team on the ground and conduct an extensive technical review over our assets and, depending on the outcome of this review, Anglo American has the right to either extend the agreement and/or enter into a commercial transaction for the development of certain or all of the targets on our licenses."
Next news:
(1) AGM @5-Nov-2020
(2) Soil samples imminent! "The Company is pleased to report that the laboratory reports in relation to the 2,500 soil samples from the Zamsort and Zaco license areas are expected imminently and that an update will follow shortly."
(3) ARCM / AAL Transaction ?????