Member Info for aprogerson

My estimate of GUN cash vs MCap position yesterday was "large cash pile of £750k now almost a third of its £2.48m MCap". So todays £146k pre-IPO investment in Empress Royalty leaves approx £600k cash for Rincon and Angold IPO.
I wish they had another £600k knocking about ... these are some choice pre-IPO investments as they get access to great strike price shares
DYOR APR

@pheobus I wish you had a hotline to GUN high command with that suggestion AND they did something about it as I would be all over it for the same reason.
All physical metals and especially Copper /Gold / silver are going nuts with dollar weakness backdrop. As Rincon is a VERY prospective Copper / Gold play it is top of my list
APR

Can't buy any GWMO as this price on HL ... very frustrating

@johnsun Agreed obviously not met their target buy price yet so some feel need to talk SP down and add personal insults so you respond and give them air.

Empress Royalty is pre-IPO for TSXV and as this was a private placement for 1m shares at CAD$0.25c each we do not yet know what the IPO price will be but we can safely assume it will be higher.
Details: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Empress-Royalty-Private-Placement-Fully-Subscribed--31597458/
OCt-20 presentation: https://www.empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/5652/empress_royalty_investor_presentation_-_october_2020.pdf

Peter Ruse, a director of Gunsynd, commented: "We are very pleased to participate in this financing round for Empress Royalty Corp. We believe Empress offers an attractive entry point into the gold and silver royalty/streaming space which continues to be an attractive area in North American and European capital markets."

@Burton nice one thanks very interesting

@mandrake I have been through all the RNSs from 13-Nov-19 & I calculate we are approx. halfway through warrant overhang with 315m to go for a further £580k cash to the BoD if exercised. See yesterdays post for full details.

In Summary:
Share Placings: £1,372.5k = cash to bank since 13-Nov-19
Warrants Exercised: £497k cash to bank since 18-Sept-20 (4x RNS refer)
Warrants "In the money" = £580k @0.16/0.2p remain outstanding
Warrants "Out of the money" = £33.7k @1.75p outstanding but unlikely to be exercised

Commentary: IMHO £497k additional cash since 18-Sept-20 is very welcome cash boost equating to 312m new shares issued and 315m more if warrants exercised for £580k cash to BoD.
I'm happy to be corrected if you think I've missed something?
APR

Agreed this is a BUY ... I should know I just topped up again by 1.5m
23-Oct-20 08:09:14 0.253 1,500,000 Sell* 0.25 0.26 3,795

It might seem far fetched, but WishBone AIM:WSBN is just in the process of picking up nearby (albeit smaller) tenements and its MCap is currently £8-10m so may (or may not) be a useful guide.

A Rincon IPO scenario involves 3 main variables IPO strike price, amount of money to be raised and GUNs appetite for IPO shares. We do know that GUN has 15.4m shares bought at A$0.0166 costing £137.8k or 28.4% holding out of approx. 54.3m overall pre-IPO shares as RNS 22/23-Jun-20 refers. Rincon maps & details @ https://www.artemisresources.com.au/index.php/investors-relations/announcements

The nature +location of Rincon's licences and the over 22km of drill data suggest licences are highly prospective for high grade Gold/copper at very shallow depths suggesting an open pit mine just 12km from NCMs Telfer ... that is very attractive as Telfer is a monster plant with less than a 4 year LOM at relatively poor grades. High volume decent grade ore will multiply Telfers profitability due to its current very poor AISC of over $1,050/oz. GGPs Haverion alone has been estimated to halve Telfers AISC massively increasing NCMs profitability explaining NCMs headlong rush.

Rincon will want to set the IPO strike price reasonably high to raise both a decent amount of new money and minimise dilution to pre-IPO investors who supported them. If Rincon doubles the number of share in issue at minimum A$0.032, then initial investors will be no better off with a lower % holding and Rincon will only raise £0.96m new cash from 54.3m new shares pleasing no one. Worse still they would probably back for more investor cash within 6 months

My guess is Rincon could easily raise A$8m or £4.4m at say A$0.20c by issuing 40m new shares which would dilute GUNs 15.4m shares from 28.4% to 16.35%, but increase its value to £1.7m at no further cost to GUN. In that scenario Gun could & should up its stake to say 20% for £370k or an additional 3.45m shares and still retain half its current £750k cash pile. If that scenario came about then Rincon would be MCap £10.3m with £4.4m new cash and GUN would remain a strategic shareholder with 20% valued at £2.07m. If Rincon also threw in placing warrants at say A$0.25c that would be very attractive indeed and put Rincon on very firm foundations with upto A$10m warrant cash to follow also allowing GUN to maintain a decent stake .
... but what do I know so we'll just have to wait and see.
AIMHO APR

@benboro yep RNS 4-May-20 at 85:1 consolidation

@AG check my earlier posts with links to DLs musings and Artemis ARV presentations when they were going to buy Rincon, but decided not to when GGP Haveiron discovery news hit and they wanted to concentrate on their own existing licences. GUN stepped and bought into Rincon on the cheap ... inspired move. Full Rincon licence details, NCM drill details et al are all included.
I'm going to crunch some numbers on forthcoming Rincon IPO scenarios given GUN existing shareholding and large cash pile of £750k now almost a third of its £2.48m MCap ... laughable but in a good way for existing PIs.

Holding in Rincon @28.4% Pre-IPO with £750k cash in the bank to pickup additional shares at IPO to keep above 15% as Peter Ruse stated in recent PodCast is exciting given Rincon's proximity to NCMs Telfer & GGPs Haveiron in WA.

Rincon cost GUN 'only' £138k @22/23-Jun-20 RNS & GUNs is £2,73m MCap ... now that is REALLY exciting especially when you consider Rincon's neighbours Greatland GGP MCap is £871m & Artemis ARV MCap is £96.2m

Confirming exploration and progress towards gold/silver tailings production from RNS and plus receipt of £480k warrants exercise as per my analysis.
APR

New BoD & strategy since RNS 13-Nov-2019 refers:
Cash is king for a Junior Explorer with bills to pay and BOD / shareholder aspirations to meet. GWMO currently has no revenue so must manage cash-burn tightly & secure further revenue streams to fund BoD costs & exploration.

Share Placings: since 13-Nov-2019 raised £1,372.5k as reported via RNS. A SP figures use prior day close figure & a cash raise between a 20/25% discount to current SP is to be expected for a Junior with few tangible assets.
16-Jul-20 = £450k at 0.1p vs. current SP 0.13 (23% discount) Olympic Gold surveys & 2x other project costs
27-May-20 = £217.5k at 0.1p vs. current SP 0.125 (20% discount) for 2020 work programme & Olympic Gold
27-May-20 = £15k at 0.1075p vs. current SP 0.125 (14% discount) for fees et al
20-Feb-20 = £320k at 0.11p vs. current SP 0.155 (29% discount) for buy Nevada tenement & 3x other project costs
29-Jan-20 = £14k at 0.1p vs. current SP 0.1075 (2% premium) for creditor payment
13-Nov-19 = £300k at 0.08p vs. current SP 0.17 (53% discount) for Nevada and expenses
13-Nov-19 = £56k at 0.08p vs. current SP 0.17 (53% discount) for fees et al
IMHO placings @13-Nov-19 indicate GWMO was in financial distress hence BoD change & heavily discounted cash raise.

Warrants: Issued £1,110.7k total giving cash to BOD if exercised & all are now ‘In the Money’ and so likely to be exercised if SP remains above 0.2p & warrant holder wishes to invest further as follows:.
03-Jul-2018 £33.7k warrants @1.75p valid for 3 years (to 02-Jul-2021) > £33.7k outstanding
13-Nov-2019 £600k warrants @0.16p valid for 3 years (to 12-Nov-2022) > £200k outstanding RNS 18 & 22-Sept-20
16-Jul-2020 £450k warrants @0.20p valid for 2 years (to 15-Jul-2022) > £380k outstanding RNS 2 & 8-Oct-20
16-Jul-2020 £27k warrants @0.10p valid for 2 years (to 15-Jul-2022) > £0k outstanding RNS 2-Oct-20

In Summary:
Share Placings: £1,372.5k = cash to bank since 13-Nov-19
Warrants Exercised: £497k cash to bank since 18-Sept-20 (4x RNS above refer)
Warrants outstanding = £580k @0.16/0.2p plus £33.7k @1.75p remain outstanding

Commentary: IMHO £480k additional cash since 18-Sept-20 is very welcome cash boost equating to 312m new shares issued and 315m more if warrants exercised for £580k cash to BoD. Implies about halfway through warrant overhang.
As always DYOR
APR

Could be worth a trade if you are brave but if support does breakdown @0.245p then next support would be 0.215p Fib 100% retracement or prior support right down at 0.185p established mid- Sept-20.
As always DYOR and manage your risk tightly. For clarity I'm not that brave especially as I am at target holding!
APR

Brutal price action has been repeated with price sat on Fib 76.4%% retracement @0.256p from 0.39p top of 20-Oct-20 and having tested bottom channel uptrend support around 0.245p.
Assuming this holds as support I would expect to see a strong rebound for a 2nd retest of 0.355p prior resistance and a possible push towards channel uptrend top around 0.42p or a full Fib 100% retracement 0.215p beckons which would be surprising but this is AIM.
AIMHO APR

I'm having a look around the historic RNSs concerning prior drilling campaigns that established the JORC Copper resource has piqued my interest given comments from riseagain and Alyhels.
It's a lot of stuff to get my head around so don't hold your breath!

@Alyhels In summary from initial post of 20-Oct-20 with contribution from others and some more updates from me.
We know GWMO pivoted to Gold/silver in Nov-2019 and M2 Copper asset listed as awaiting sale or JV in past RNS updates. Worth noting as it is JORC compliant it can be counted in GWMO NAV asset base on the books which it seems to be.

@jeremiah Good question & todays RNS 20-Oct-20 refers .... in notes at bottom of RNS in GWMO Background
"Furthermore, through extensive drilling over a five-year period, GWM has established a Mineral Resource on its first target area known as M2, of 4.3 million tonnes 0.45% copper, for 19,000 tonnes of contained copper metal. This resource has been independently reported in accordance with JORC guidelines."

Economics & Way Forward?
M2 would need a DFS to demonstrate it is economic hence call for a JV partner and possible Earn-In. Back drop for me was Copper was US$5,800 back in Nov-2019 and heading lower hitting US$4,300 in Mar-2020, but now US$6,975 @22-Oct-20 and having broken resistance @$6,880 could well head higher. 19kt Copper contained metal is now worth £102m.

@jeremiah pointed out that the Sharktooth (ST) target was bigger and higher grade.
"Here's a video of David Fraser outlining what they thought was under ST back in 2017. It's what caused the boom to over 2p which then fizzled out to ultimately a 95% drop as they failed to drill into it .... he says 600-700mts (@1% copper) ... so it was supposed to be humongous. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d4LeX6Xq7mQ He talks of ST after 6:50"

If ST is as prospective as suggested this implies that ST is 150x bigger than M2 at 2x the grade ... that is potentially a LOT of Copper and with the higher volumes and grade could very well be economic especially against a strongly rising Copper price.

If ST is relatively shallow then an open pit may be viable and if so seems to be screaming out for a JV and Earn-In for a 3rd party to get ST up to DFS & JORC compliance for a 50% share to me, but hey what do I know? Once you are at JORC compliance for something so large you can go to the debt market to raise capital to build a mine. The Sentinel mine in Zambia is only 0.5% Copper grade and that's a viable albeit super-huge open pit mine in a risky country.

As always happy to be corrected & I might just do some more digging ... pun intended! Could what we think was a GWMO weakness be a hidden strength in todays market with high copper prices?
AIMHO & DYOR APR