Member Info for aprogerson

I'm looking forward to some decent drilling results news flow from Mt Oxide with 2x are near-term production, shallow hi-grade targets and Arya is a deeper higher risk, but possibly company-maker IOCG prospect

Modest MCap and some fab Copper / Gold prospects being drilled ... Just what I like in a Junior Explorer

@Johnsun my sense is whoever wins in November the new incumbent will embark on a massive multi-$trillion splurge the only difference will be on how it is spent. The outcome will be the inevitable further weakening of the US$ as over 20% of the dollars in existence today were created since March this year! The victor will be industrial metals such as copper, EV metals and of course precious metals.

PGM Bull market: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4376036-how-to-ride-this-precious-metals-bull-market-to-top?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-tesla-to-make-cells-in-germany-umm-not-so-fast-elon&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-7%20Mid-Tiers

Kitco time to buy PGM Miners: https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-10-13/Gold-miners-it-s-time-to-buy.html

Gold Sentiment: https://themarketear.com/posts/cpTKtEFyLz

Gold Real Returns: https://themarketear.com/posts/cx4KTvBOnk
... Just sit on our hands as this comes to us!

@socialist. thanks but given no news on the licence position or identification of vehicle to realise any value from the Djibouti licences held by Subco so I'll stick with NAV =£0 unless someone can give me a good reason for treating it otherwise? The only comfort I can draw at this point is that of the £375k+ invested so far there is a route to realising £260k of sunk cost via "Sajawin option to purchase Madagascar oil licence by 30-Oct-20" so I've noted that at £260k minus £20k cash received so far ... and await the transaction to close.
AIMHO APR

Fulmar for president!

Hopefully I haven't missed anything in Cash, Assets, assumed valuations or likely newsflow that would revalue any of GUNs investments to date.
My takeaway is very strong cash position so BoD has lots of optionality backed by strong NAV coverage and near term opportunity to realise further previously illiquid investments (1a, 1b and 2 below) for cash or listed shares circa £300-500k.
AIMHO APR

* Updated Malachite ASX:MAR (Sunshine +Kolosori) +Sajawin (Madagascar licence) +Djibouti licence *
GUN is an Investment Company buying low and selling at a profit to reinvest so Market Capitalisation (MCap), available cash and Net Asset Value (NAV) are key metrics that we use to assess GUN fair value PLUS what transformative events we expect to positively affect SP & MCap plus associated NAV valuations .

Expected transformative news flow in order of impact/proximity:
(1a) Malachite option to purchase Kolosori Nickel by 30-Sept-20
(1b) Malachite option to purchase Sunshine Metals ... Confirmation of deal
(2) Sajawin option to purchase Madagascar oil licence by 30-Oct-20
(3) Rincon IPO & news on South Telfer targets & drill programme progress for IPO. GUN target 15% post IPO
(4) Angold IPO
(5) Human Brands IPO and or Rogue Baron AIM listing
(6) Empress Royalty IPO
(7) Eagle Mining drill campaign & results
(8) Djibouti oil licence held by SubCo - status update on way forward and/or exit

Summary @22-Oct-20: GUN is £2.6m MCap of which £593k is cash leaves approx. £2m MCap underwritten by NAV = £1.93m @22-Oct-20 for minimum 96.6% NAV coverage using VERY conservative assumptions (see below).

Cash Position: Estimate = £593k assuming following:
> Peter Ruse stated circa £650k cash on Podcast @5-Oct-20 https://www.share-talk.com/peter-ruse-director-gunsynd-plc-gun-l-interview/
> Eagle Mining stake increased = cost £75k EM2 @14-Oct-20 RNS
> Bunker Hill Mining sale = receipt £164k @20-Oct-20 RNS
> Empress Royalty investment = cost £146k @23-Oct-20 RNS

Net Asset Value (NAV) = £1,931.6k assuming following:
• Rogue Baron = £500k convertible loan note (30.8%) @02-Jul-20 RNS so assume NAV = £498,575 (loan @12% pa due 31-Mar-21)
• Human Brands = 0% shares pre-IPO, but up to 3% fee at IPO @02-Jul-20 RNS so assume NAV = £0k & await IPO
• Rincon = 28% pre-IPO cost £138k @22/23-Jun-20 RNS so assume NAV = £138k & await IPO
• Angold = 1.13% pre-IPO cost £165k @30-Sept-20 RNS so assume NAV = £165k & await IPO
• Eagle Mountain Mining = 1.8% value £578k @16-Oct-20 so assume NAV = £578k & await drill news
• Bunker Hill Mining sold @20-Oct-20 RNS so NAV = £0k
• Empress Royalty = TBC% pre-IPO cost £146k @23-Oct-20 RNS & await IPO
• Djibouti oil licenses historic RNSs 2017 to 2019 apply so assume NAV = £0k
• Madagascar oil license, subject to Sajawin offer so assume NAV = £240k offer (£20k paid) if closed
• Sunshine Metals cost £240k, but Malachite offer so assume NAV = £121k in MAR shares if closed
• Kolosori Nickel = 7.67% cost £45k & Await Malachite offer

AIMHO & DYOR
APR

Yep just about to post the update ... but well spotted!

Thanks @socialist that makes a lot of sense. If you have the figures of what cash we invested then I can use that as the £NAV figure until we have a better idea and the sale to Sajawin (ENERGYCAPTURE PTY LIMITED) concludes.
This should then be a very conservative figure but certainly better than the £0 NAV I have wrongly assumed so far.
APR

GUN is an Investment Company buying low and selling at a profit to reinvest so Market Capitalisation (MCap), available cash and Net Asset Value (NAV) are key metrics that we use to assess GUN fair value PLUS what transformative events we expect to positively affect SP & MCap plus associated NAV valuations .

Expected transformative news flow in order of impact/proximity:
(1) Rincon IPO & news on South Telfer targets & drill programme progress for IPO. GUN target 15% post IPO
(2) Angold IPO
(3) Human Brands IPO and or Rogue Baron AIM listing
(4) Empress Royalty IPO
(5) Eagle Mining drill campaign & results
(6) Dubai oil licence status update on way forward and/or exit

Summary @22-Oct-20: GUN is £2.6m MCap of which £593k is cash leaves approx. £2m MCap underwritten by NAV = £1.53m @22-Oct-20 for minimum 76% NAV coverage using VERY conservative assumptions (see below).

Cash Position: Estimate = £593k assuming following:
> Peter Ruse stated circa £650k cash on Podcast @5-Oct-20 https://www.share-talk.com/peter-ruse-director-gunsynd-plc-gun-l-interview/
> Eagle Mining stake increased = cost £75k EM2 @14-Oct-20 RNS
> Bunker Hill Mining sale = receipt £164k @20-Oct-20 RNS
> Empress Royalty investment = cost £146k @23-Oct-20 RNS

Net Asset Value (NAV) = £1,525.6k assuming following:
• Rogue Baron = £500k convertible loan note (30.8%) @02-Jul-20 RNS so assume NAV = £498,575 (loan @12% pa & due 31-Mar-21)
• Human Brands = 0% shares pre-IPO, but up to 3% fee at IPO @02-Jul-20 RNS so assume NAV = £0k & await IPO
• Rincon = 28% pre-IPO cost £138k @22/23-Jun-20 RNS so assume NAV = £138k & await IPO
• Angold = 1.13% pre-IPO cost £165k @30-Sept-20 RNS so assume NAV = £165k & await IPO
• Eagle Mountain Mining = 1.8% value £578k @16-Oct-20 so assume NAV = £578k & await drill news
• Bunker Hill Mining sold @20-Oct-20 RNS so NAV = £0k
• Empress Royalty = TBC% pre-IPO cost £146k @23-Oct-20 RNS & await IPO
• Dubai oil licenses historic RNSs 2017 to 2019 apply so assume NAV = £0k

Happy to correct if anyone thinks I have missed or got anything wrong?
AIMHO & DYOR
APR

@socialistB Thankyou for your thoughtful posts. I had simply assumed that ZTR RTO and Angold transactions had occurred that this was it and all we retained were the licences as nothing else had been said one way or the other hence my assertion of zero carrying value. If these licences indeed have value and IF the arrangements with Sajawin (ENERGYCAPTURE PTY LIMITED) do come to something then GUN SP & NAV should benefit considerably.
Do you have any figures for £NAV for these assets and what assets are these then exactly?
APR

@graham everything crossed but beginning to lose the feeling in my legs & fingers

Whatever the form of transaction I hope everyone will agree that one or two of the more developed assets will drive the valuation and these will be the ones that AA want to take forward and mine. Equally IMHO we have 2 very large licence areas with other prospective discoveries / targets that still require further exploration to realise any sensible value. So why as part of a transaction would ARCM include those non-core areas effectively for free? There are alternatives!

My best guess ... tweaked
(1) partial sale comfortably north of £200m (ARC=5-bag) for one of our assets so AAL can go build their mine
or (2) Earn-In of one of our assets with AA paying CAPEX/OPEX taking 75% to DFS & OMI style staged payments to ARCM (say £6m over 2 years) with first refusal on balance at full market value
then later ....
(3) ARCM progress one or more targets to PFS/DFS and sale using (1) or (2) proceeds
and/or (4) 3rd party Earn-In to prove up one or more targets to PFS/DFS then sale or equity partner with 3rd party as operator for future revenue stream
(5) wash and repeat in Zambia
(6) line up new prospective assets as capital allows and repeat (1) to (5) above

Just saying ... as picks up on @olderand wiser's comments ... thanks for keeping me honest!
There are other Copper focused explorers doing exactly what ARCM are doing in Zambia such as AIM:CCZ but they have just started surveys & soil sampling campaign.
APR

Deja Vu. I'm guessing things will hot up in 3-4 weeks time as results start coming through

Very strange 2x small trades reported after hours taking SP at close from 37p to 39p.
23-Oct-20 16:35:11 39.00 1,000 Buy* 37.00 38.00 390.00 UT
23-Oct-20 16:33:19 38.00 10,000 Buy* 37.00 38.00 3,800 O

@socialist what Oil related assets do GUN have left other than some Dubai related licences areas which I think were joint ownership with another entity? I was supposing them to be marked down to £zero, but happy to be corrected

My 'bet' is if ARCM are following their stated strategy of 'explore, develop, realise value' (my precis) then:
(1) partial sale comfortably north of £200m for one of our assets so AAL can go build their mine
(2) ARCM sort out an Earn-In to prove up the balance of our assets to line them up for a sale

This threads a sensible path to getting best value for our assets over time on a jam 'imminently' and jam 'shortly' basis as NvS would doubtless say! Any sale above £200m is a minimum 5-bag from current SP and not to be sniffed at as there will still be more to come!
APR

@Tiger absolutely concur with your assessment. I look for solid operation & strategy, do-what-they say management, good assets and well managed risk which HUM all do brilliantly.
Everything else is in this price for free and that price is heavily discounted so my downside is covered but upside is self-evident with a clear route map which I trust BoD to deliver on.

It's all good ... did I mention the gold price and debt to be paid down in near future?
AIMHO APR

This is simply in 2 parts:
(1) JORC compliant Copper Asset ... BoD Stated and reiterated it is for sale or JV on multiple RNSs as costs is too high to continue. BoD also stated on prior RNS that without further work it is unlikely to be economic hence sale or JV.

(2) Various Copper / Gold /Silver licences ... too early for a JV as we don't yet know what we have hence why we are soil sampling, trenching and looking to confirm drill targets across our tenements. If we JV now we just give the upside away and have a weak hand to play in any JV/Earn-In discussions so will be lucky to retain 25%.

Bottom line whatever the assets they need more work which is why GWMO is still a micro-cap ... everything else is detail
AIMHO APR

SP did a perfect kiss on 0.2447p uptrend channel bottom with 3rd point in a line from 9-Sept-20 low at 0.1225p and confirmed uptrend is still intact and then promptly moved up.
Assuming SP now holds after todays close we should be free to move back up
AIMHO APR

I tried for over 30 minutes to buy at 0.25p with anything from 10k to 1m shares and got NT every time. Looks like they were filling an order so needed shares and then moved it up.